2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary V Trump would be a terrible matchup for Dems.
There. I said it. I can't imagine a scenario that would fire up the righties and demoralize the left more. At a moment when people are aware that the status quo and business as usual are not only not working for them, but actively working against their best interests, running the ultimate business-as-usual, establishment candidate running on nothing better than "they suck worse"- against someone like Trump who's pretty effectively giving the whole system the finger? She's uninspiring against a guy who is all id and bluster and I think that is not gonna go well for the Dems.
Let me say this- I am cautiously optimistic she would still win. And gods, I hope she would. Cause Trump is truly dangerous. But I genuinely believe she'll do worse than Bernie would, and she'll have no coattails at all.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)their top two are bernie/trump or trump/bernie
the estsblishment is toast
sanders v trump 2016
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)Hillary represents the status quo, and millions and millions think the establishment sucks, republicans and democrats. HRC would be IMO representing SOS. Bernie and Trump are offering something different. People want change, not the SOS. 2016 is going to be a wild ride.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)have said they haven't seen anything like it
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Gregorian
(23,867 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)where Hillary calmly shredded all attacks by a pack of professional trial lawyers-turned-politicians. We've also had 3 debates showing just how well she performs in public. Her extremely impressive performance GAINED her many supporters and prospective supporters among people who'd never really looked at her before.
Here's the truth:
The GOP leadership is TERRIFIED of Trump going up against Hillary. Not only do they believe they will lose the White House if that happens, they believe Trump will be so awful they will lose dozens, perhaps hundreds of down-ticket offices to Democratic contenders.
BlueJazz
(25,348 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Bernie beating Trump by a rather large margin, and Hillary just squeaking past him?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)much right now. Trump will make Sanders look like Dukakis. Sorry.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Of course. He's incredibly, shockingly ignorant for a man in his position, and he lacks the ability to present anything but the most simple ideas (like, "You're a stupid doo-doo" or "This isn't a country!" well.
Trump doesn't begin to be a match for Bernie. His only advantage is that he can hurl insults in a casual, laid-back way that is likely to make Bernie seem a little too serious at time.
Trump has no explanations for how he would accomplish even the knuckle-dragger threats he tosses around. His team will come up with some, but like W he won't remember or understand them well enough to field questions about them in public.
Also, in a very real sense (like Bernie), Trump has not yet been required to protect his candidacy from the kind of constant, very heavily funded "incoming" bombardments those who become serious candidates must to survive. Unlike Bernie, Trump has a whole lot of highly questionable baggage that most people don't even know about yet; but they will.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)will kick his worthless rear.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)TDale313
(7,820 posts)I think his authenticity and message are a far better antidote to Trump, but aware that's jmo.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Broward
(1,976 posts)Trump is against it. How's that going to play with the voters?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Not teachers, police/fire, government workers, construction workers, Healthcare providers, service workers, transportation workers, etc. There ain't many that will be impacted by TPP in short-run. I think we all gain in long-term.
LettuceSea
(337 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)and a very long list of "free trade" agreements failed to do so?
Exactly how stupid do you think workers are?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)I guess they are all anti-worker.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Our workers? Not so much.
You wanna go back to last year's talking point that US workers have to accept third-world living conditions? That went really well when you tried it.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Besides, we've taken more than our share of the world's wealth. Don't you think it's time to share a bit?
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)TDale313
(7,820 posts)I'd find that harder if I were in more of a swing state, cause, my issues with Hillary aside, I do believe Trump is very, very dangerous.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Odin2005
(53,521 posts)She is DESPISED. Anyone who believes otherwise is stuck in the Establishment Beltway Bubble and is out of touch with reality.
Dems to Win
(2,161 posts)Not a pleasant thought.
Check this out, from the Guardian, in an article that was about Trump and Palin:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/23/trump-palin-funny-no-joke-republican-stars
It is a mood that stretches far beyond the US and is advancing in Europe too. Rage against anything that smacks of the system including even the kind of coherent reform plans that might actually change it has become a great, unstoppable force. And this is what Hillary Clinton is up against. She embodies the system at the very moment the system has never been more hated. And thats no joke.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)And I am worried Trump would actually win against her (although I still think overall the math favors her)
I will say this. I think she'd likely beat the others in the clown car.
Dems to Win
(2,161 posts)At a time when no Rep can get elected to anything statewide in California, Schwarz was the governor, due solely to his celebrity, imho. Trump's a modern celebrity, a reality TV star.
Prop 187, to withhold all state public benefits from illegal immigrants in California, passed in 1994 (it was thrown out by the courts).
Demographics have changed in the intervening years, but.... I worry a lot that if this stuff could happen in California, the whole country is going to eat up Trump like raw meat. No matter what the polls say today.
No matter that Trump has insulted vast swaths of the populace. Another Guardian article:
'We love you!' Conservative women turn blind eye to Donald Trump's slurs
In interviews with female supporters across Iowa, not one mentioned being turned off by anti-women remarks.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/22/donald-trump-conservative-women-turn-blind-eye-anti-women-slurs
I strongly believe Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump. No happy wedding party photos of Bernie with the Donald.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)It was a sad moment seeing my state vote for the Governator. The only silver lining was when he decided to put his right wing, power grabbing, union busting agenda on the ballot and we handed him his ass.
BlueStateLib
(937 posts)is very popular
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)record is going to be a sure loser IMO. No matter what she says, she is seen as part of the system.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)There aren't nearly enough angry white guys to bolster his campaign in a national election. That is literally the only group he hasn't taken a rhetorical dump on.
nxylas
(6,440 posts)Trump the plucky outsider vs Hillary the machine politician loved by the establishment. Sure, Trump makes an unlikely Mr Smith, but if a lie is repeated often enough, people will start to believe it.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Clinton is tough and not afraid to call Trump out for what he is.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)Most unions endorse Sanders, when their members get to have a say.
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Vincardog
(20,234 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Vincardog
(20,234 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)would have a field day exploiting. Candidates in swing states would get as far away from bernie as they could. There are no down ballot Socialists FYI
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Every attempt at attacking Bernie has failed.
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)Last edited Sat Jan 23, 2016, 07:02 PM - Edit history (1)
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)You guys regurgitate more RW schtick than the Rs do. Bernie would be very vulnerable in the GE. You are whistling past the graveyard if you aren't aware of that. He would do well to start unpacking it and try to neutralize it.
Vincardog
(20,234 posts)Nothing to add and only stand to retard progress.
LonePirate
(13,424 posts)There is no need for the teeth gnashing or candidate bashing.
brooklynite
(94,592 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)vote against her and her lack luster, status quo, business as usual message will not
get the Dem base out.
Another train wreck
onecaliberal
(32,863 posts)Republicans despise Hillary. Establiment AND crazy Cons will show up to vote against her. She has high unfavorables with Indies as well.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)The scariest matchup is Rubio vs Sanders.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Rubio beat her outright.
Sanders, on the other hand, beats all three easily.
We can't beat an anti-establishment Republican with an establishment Democrat in a change election. It's that simple. Democrats and Republicans agree on NOTHING but a weariness of the status quo. A status quo Democrat is a ticket to a Republican administration (and a generational right-wing tilt in the SCOTUS).
Vinca
(50,276 posts)not exciting the Democrats much and we'll probably have a low turnout election. She could win with Republican voters, though, if they cast their votes as an anti-Trump message. I heard a blurb somewhere that there is a line of thinking on the GOP side that they'll support Trump in the primary because they hate Cruz even more, then throw the general to teach the far right whack jobs a lesson.
underpants
(182,826 posts)Database (OFA Specifically)
Volunteer networks
Demographics
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)TDale313
(7,820 posts)But he's tapping into something we underestimate at our peril, whoever our nominee is.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)in a big campaign-- and we sure don't want to take any chances
Certainly, the whole fucking GOP party SHOULD BE unelectable, but still people keep voting for them.
However, Trump is a special form of toxicity even for GOP voters.
FloriDem
(18 posts)It would be bad for everyone, not just the Dems.