The Des Moines Register’s Endorsements Of Hillary Clinton And Marco Rubio Aren’t Game Changers

[DemocratSinceBirth]

But the endorsement could help Clinton because the Democratic race is so close.

Congratulations, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton — you’ve won the endorsement of the Des Moines Register! But what does that mean for your respective campaigns? It’s definitely a good thing. Well, it’ll help … a little … probably.

Let’s look at how past candidates were doing in the polls before getting the Iowa paper’s endorsement and how they did once all the votes were counted. (I’ve updated my colleague Nate Silver’s table from late 2011.) Here’s how the nine Des Moines Register-approved candidates since 1988 fared in the caucuses versus their prior projected vote totals according to the polls:



That’s not to say the paper’s endorsement is meaningless. For one, it may hold more sway for Democrats than for Republicans. All four of the Democrats who have gotten the endorsement have done better than projected, compared to three of the five Republicans. And this year it wouldn’t be surprising, for instance, if the Des Moines Register’s decision not to endorse Donald Trump doesn’t affect his fortunes too much given that the paper already called on him to drop out of the race.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/des-moines-register-endorses-clinton-rubio-primary-iowa/

[Thinkingabout]

1. Thanks

[SunSeeker]

2. K & R

[Gothmog]

3. This endorsement should help the Clinton campaign