2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRepublican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families
In early August, with our Republican analysis of the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, we wrote
this election will remain close until the final weeks of the campaign. There will be ups and downs for both campaigns throughout the next 13 weeks, but the basic dynamics that are driving this electorate and framing this election remain well in place. Two conventions, and tens of millions of campaign dollars later, we continue to hold that belief. While there have been dozens of polls released during the past six weeks that have had Mitt Romney up by as much as 4 points and Barack Obama up by as much 8 or 9, those variations have had more to do with sampling variations than with real movement in the campaign.
Yes, there have been gaffes on both sides that have been the focus of both the news media and opposing campaigns, but the dynamics that have been the real drivers of the campaign, the economy and deeply negative feelings about the direction of the country, have not changed. There have also been negative stories about the internal operations, messaging and strategy of both presidential campaigns. In August, leading into the Republican convention, there were multiple stories about the Obama campaign operation and internal fights about both message and strategic direction that led one to believe the wheels were coming off. Now it is the Romney campaigns turn.
The past several weeks have been filled with news stories, editorials and columns heaping criticism on the tactics and strategy of the Romney campaign. Many of these opinion pieces even suggested that Romneys only hope for winning is to make substantial changes to his campaign. Much of this analysis is based on the premise that Romney is out of touch and has not been making an affirmative case to middle-class voters. His comments at a private fundraiser in May were pointed to as an illustration that he could never identify with and win the support of many middle-class voters. We took a special look at middle-class voters, and middle-class families in particular, in this latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll and found that not to be the case. In fact, on every measure it is Romney who is winning the battle for the support of middle-class families.
Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August. In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent). Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate. These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html#ixzz27OOHC8dq
skeewee08
(1,983 posts)liberal N proud
(60,335 posts)HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)That's what Romney considers Middle Class.
liberal N proud
(60,335 posts)I don't think it is correct with the True Middle Class.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,719 posts)That's how attached to reality the GOPers are.
Kookaburra
(2,649 posts)They need to take a good look at reality. Repugs have done everything in their power to eliminate the middle class. I'm not buying it.
htuttle
(23,738 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)In other words, it was a poll to preach to the choir and it still had to show Obama with a lead. Take it with a grain of salt and just add it into the other other polls and take the average.
beac
(9,992 posts)analyzing or commenting on events in the real world.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)He was her pollster during her campaign until he wasn't useful to her anymore.
This guy writes this article with a right wing bias, I hope others here realize not to freak out over it.
BlueToTheBone
(3,747 posts)with income tax in the 14% range LOVE his tax policies. The rest of us who USED to be middle class are not so impressed.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Why post this tripe from a right wing poll???
Newbies love to post the bad news polls, they're like nectar to the bees.
beac
(9,992 posts)because it tips their hand on how they are going to attempt to justify the results of vote stealing using those black boxes:
"See?? We told you he was ahead with the middle class!!"
We can't rest on the laurels of Obama's good poll numbers. We must GOTV and give him an undeniable landslide.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)The headline clearly states this is a Republican poll and I thought Democrats would be interested in analyzing and do what most have thus far done, rip the poll(ster) to shreds. For an alleged progressive by design, you sure can whine like Myth and the rest of the GOP.
Lex
(34,108 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)HughBeaumont
(24,461 posts)Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)Stupidity like that has to pay the price.