Why are people assuming Bernie won't be able to win over African Americans after Iowa and NH?

[ram2008]

Obama did it in 2008. Yes, Bernie isn't Obama and he won't win as high a percentage as Obama did, but he can certainly make a big dent in Hillary's support and that will be enough.

Everyone keeps talking about this southern firewall as if African Americans will vote lock-step with the Clintons. Not only is that presumptuous but there is absolutely no reason to believe this. It is certainly possible that once people start paying more attention they won't be receptive to Bernie's message, but this has not happened in any group so far.

Can someone explain?

[pangaia]

1. Nope.

[elias49]

2. I can't explain it either.

What has Clinton offered the African American population?
From what I can gather, her plan is to pat everyone on the head and tuck them into bed.
Then start new aggressions in the Middle East...same old shit different day.

[highprincipleswork]

3. There is evidence that his message is starting to be heard in a positive way.

And then there is this as well.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/hillary-clinton-not-second-coming-harriet-tubman

[hrmjustin]

4. Nothing is written in stone but I see no sign that Sanders is making any gains with the

African American community.

We shall xee.

[Avalux]

5. Well, right here on DU, he's been called a crusty old Jew.

The DUer gave that as the reason he won't be able to get votes from minorities, or the south in general.

It's disgusting and it's bullshit; can't believe I read it here.

Anyway - Bernie will do just fine.

[wilt the stilt]

10. hey

I didn't call him a crusty old jew. I said he will be perceived that way in the country. I grew up in a jewish clique and have seen how they are perceived and that was in Yonkers, NY. By the way, one of my jewish friends wrote most the sesame street shows. I spoke to the group 15 minutes ago.Do you have a reading comprehension problem?
Most of you Sander people are so enamored that you have lost touch with reality. I promise you if Sanders is nominated by the time the republican machine is finished with him he will appear to have the star of david tattooed to his forehead.

[Jarqui]

6. There was a discussion on CNN early in 2008 that was

on why Obama wasn't getting more black support in the polls

.... So I tried to look it up ...
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/
CNN Poll: Black support helps Clinton extend lead
updated 8:54 p.m. EDT, Wed October 17, 2007

and then

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/18/poll.2008/index.html?iref=nextin
Poll: Obama makes big gains among black voters
updated 8:03 a.m. EST, Sat January 19, 2008

"There's been a huge shift among African-American Democrats from Clinton to Obama. African-American Democrats used to be reluctant to support Obama because they didn't think a black man could be elected. Then Obama won Iowa and nearly won New Hampshire. Now they believe," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.

If you go dig around the polls that I've been following for months, a very significant factor in Clinton's support over Sanders is they do not think Sanders can win - very similar to Obama's situation. They often like Bernie but they'd kind of followed the media and wrote him off as he disappeared from their TV screens.

If Bernie does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to get a shift - not just from blacks but from all kinds of folks who were on the fence or unaware of him. I think he's less well known than Obama was at the same point in 2007-8.

If Bernie does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media can't ignore him any longer and folks will start to find out what he's about. Like Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to pull voters into his camp.

Is it going to be like Obama? I have no idea. Probably less if I had to guess but it could be more for all I know.

That's why good showings in Iowa and New Hampshire are important for Bernie's campaign. At this point, I think good showings in those states are inevitable. With him now favored to win New Hampshire (+12.8, Nate Silver 86% chance Sanders wins), the only question is whether he can win Iowa where it's tight.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. I hope HRH taking the AA vote for granted

will come back to bite her in the behind. The only reason she leads in AA voter polls is because of name recognition. That's changing fast and after Bernie wins Iowa and NH, his poll numbers will skyrocket and every person in this country will know the name "BERNIE SANDERS."

That's all it's going to take. Once the AA communities know Bernie, Bernie's history of fighting for Civil Rights and how he has worked tirelessly for them for 45 YEARS, they'll love him as much as we do.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[restorefreedom]

8. its propoganda and wishful thinking is all. nt

[bowens43]

9. 'People' are not assuming this, hillary supporters are......

[firebrand80]

11. The Clinton brand is strong in the AA community

It would take a strong force to drive a wedge between Hillary and the black vote. Obama was such a force in 2008. Bernie, I predict, won't be.

Why? In a nutshell, he doesn't communicate with the black community very well. There's no connection there. He's trying, but I just don't see it.

[KingFlorez]

12. I apologize in advance for my reply

I know this might hurt and upset a lot of people, so I'm really walking on eggshells and trying to be quite sensitive about this. Again, I apologize in advance.

Obama was able to overcome Clinton in South Carolina in 2008 because black voters saw the results in Iowa and New Hampshire as an indication that electing a black President was a possibility. You don't really have that sort of social element at play at this point. When you have a race with white candidates, whoever wins the black vote comes down to who has a connection and better name recognition. That isn't to say things can't change, but Sanders doesn't have any specific appeal to black voters (regional, organizational, etc). He might win Iowa and New Hampshire, but I don't think that really will have much bearing on his performance among black voters in southern primaries.