Predictive Markets odds for winners of the first 4 primary states

[Godhumor]

As of 8:20 est:

Iowa:
HRC - 64%
SBS - 36%
MOM - 0%

NH:
SBS - 73%
HRC - 27%
MOM - 0%

NV:
HRC - 65%
SBS - 35%
MOM - 0%

SC:
HRC - 79%
SBS - 21%
MOM - 0%

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries#EarlyDEM

Bonus markets:

Dem Nomination:
HRC - 82%
SBS - 17%
MOM - 1%

President:
HRC - 54%
SBS - 9%
MOM - 0%


Yeah, very little love for O'Malley.

[Binkie The Clown]

1. Based on people's cash money bets, so all we know is that Clinton appeals to gamblers.

And gamblers are not very smart as a rule or they wouldn't throw money away.

So the net take away is that a group of reckless gamblers with no more political knowledge than the average Joe is betting that Clinton will win for no other reason than that the media has convinced them that such is the case.

Very scientific.

[Ferd Berfel]

7. True, and Bernie appeals to......

[DirtyHippyBastard]

2. 1/23/16- Patriots favored by 3 over Broncos... Funny how these things work

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Nate Silver predicted

Before the season even began, Nate Silver , relying solely on the numbers, predicted Denver would finish ahead of New England:

Was pretty skeptical that our Elo forecast had Denver favored but looking better now. Are the Broncos underrated?


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

Funny how these things work.

[workinclasszero]

10. Good old Nate

It is...funny how these things work.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. He was starting to doubt himself but was vindicated in the end.

Very few fans outside of Denver thought Denver would go further than New England.

[Health Wagon]

3. All of it is 100% pure unadulterated bullshit.

Let me ask you a question - how much did PredictWise guess that New England would win today?

[Ed Suspicious]

4. Any port in the storm.

[morningfog]

5. Thatnlooks good considering Iowa and NV are matched

and Bernie is likely to win Iowa. And the betting number for Bernie in NH is far to low.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Predictive markets have nothing to do with love or the lack of it

I'm an O'Malley supporter, and I largely agree with those odds.

[Godhumor]

8. Yeah I think they're right, about now

One could actually argue they're favorable to Sanders considering where SC could be at the moment.

[Alfresco]

12. I like Dem odds. :-)

[LettuceSea]

13. FWIW, with $850...

you can move those markets big time...they are very illiquid. Worse, think about what multiple people could do if they jammed it at once...

Scary.