O’Malley's definitely hitting his stride in these last few days leading up to the caucus

[bigtree]

Carlee Griffeth ‏@carleegriffeth 11h11 hours ago
via @SarahBeckman3: @MartinOMalley is hitting his stride in these last few days leading up to the #IACaucus. Read it http://sarahbeckman.tumblr.com/post/137951258867/eight-days-out-omalley-aims-to-upset-the-apple …




Democratic presidential candidate Martin O’Malley is making his closing pitch to Iowa caucus-goers, beginning this weekend in eastern Iowa, a battleground for Democrats. In 2008, the fight for the region was won by Barack Obama and John Edwards, and Clinton was left out of the mix. Painting himself as a young up-and-comer to voters in these last few days, O’Malley is hoping Iowans in the eastern part of the state choose “a new leader” like they did back in 2008. At his two events held in bars in Coralville and Maquoketa, O’Malley hit this point hard with supporters, reminding them that he’s the only candidate who can steal beat expectations.

“On caucus night, you can lift me up,” O’Malley said while standing on a chair in Maquoketa. “And you can point the way forward. If we beat expectations here in Iowa, as you know, it becomes a totally different race nationally.”

And O’Malley’s right. If he does beat the odds and shows a stronger standing than his steady four of five percent in Iowa, then he may get the momentum his campaign so desperately needs. Beating those odds isn’t a long-shot either, because many of the Iowans I spoke with throughout O’Malley’s eastern swing on Saturday are strong supporters of his message, and even the ones that are not 100 percent committed are seriously considering him...

O’Malley is definitely hitting his stride in these last few days leading up to the caucus, feeding off his crowd’s enthusiasm more than usual. In the past, O’Malley sometimes pulled back into his regular remarks and even cadence of speaking, even in front of large crowds like he did a few weeks ago at the Iowa Citizens for Community Involvement - he is no longer making that mistake. In Waterloo and Coralville, two large crowds interrupted their candidate with several applauses, and O’Malley responded with a more enthusiastic and confident speech. Even in front of a smaller, more intimate crowd in Maquoketa, O’Malley outlined his principles in a more energetic and focused way. And his new approach these final few days is working.

... There is still time to “upset the apple cart” as O’Malley likes to remind voters, and he’s not out of his mind in saying that. Many Iowa caucus-goers are still mulling over where they will stand on February 1st, with many I talked to just seeing O’Malley for the first time (!) with now eight days to go. You can insert a plethora of cliches into the mix as the final week approaches in Iowa, but many of them are true: it is not over until it’s over. And for O’Malley, that could not be more true.

“We have nine days, Iowa - to catch fire,” said O’Malley to his supporters in Waterloo. “The sort of fire that sweeps all across this state. The sort of fire that elects a leader by beating expectations. We are on the threshold of a new American progress. Iowa, it’s Iowa’s time. And I need your help.”


read more: http://sarahbeckman.tumblr.com/post/137951258867/eight-days-out-omalley-aims-to-upset-the-apple

[elleng]

1. 'In Waterloo and Coralville, two large crowds interrupted their candidate

with several applauses, and O’Malley responded with a more enthusiastic and confident speech. Even in front of a smaller, more intimate crowd in Maquoketa, O’Malley outlined his principles in a more energetic and focused way. And his new approach these final few days is working.

... There is still time to “upset the apple cart” as O’Malley likes to remind voters, and he’s not out of his mind in saying that. Many Iowa caucus-goers are still mulling over where they will stand on February 1st, with many I talked to just seeing O’Malley for the first time (!) with now eight days to go. You can insert a plethora of cliches into the mix as the final week approaches in Iowa, but many of them are true: it is not over until it’s over. And for O’Malley, that could not be more true.

“We have nine days, Iowa - to catch fire,” said O’Malley to his supporters in Waterloo. “The sort of fire that sweeps all across this state. The sort of fire that elects a leader by beating expectations. We are on the threshold of a new American progress. Iowa, it’s Iowa’s time. And I need your help.”'

[Fumesucker]

2. Very white crowd... But that only counts for Sanders, the other candidates not so much

[bigtree]

3. bored?

[Fumesucker]

5. Amused actually, DU can be amazingly entertaining if you approach it with the right mindset

You have to admit that's the type of comment that would be made on a thread about a Sanders event where there were zero non white faces in evidence.

Yeah, I know it's Iowa, tell it to Camp Weathervane.

[bigtree]

6. it's like a cartoon

...where two folks fighting spill into another room where everyone else is talking quietly among themselves.

I think the O'Malley campaign benefits from the infighting between the Sanders and Clinton camps.

[Fumesucker]

8. I can get two chuckles and a belly laugh out of just the titles in GD-P

I'm talking the first page alone, just about any time of the day or night when I log on I'm laughing within five minutes.

[NCTraveler]

10. Looks like you are the only one promoting it in this op.

No one else. Why deflect from such a solid op. The op is about O'Malley.

[Fumesucker]

21. This is an O'Malley OP, not mandatory for him

[cherokeeprogressive]

4. I really, REALLY like Martin O'Malley. I wish he were doing better in the polls.

He's got it all.

[MineralMan]

7. Unless he can get at least 15% of the vote statewide

in the caucuses, he will get zero delegates. Will he manage that? I have serious doubts. If he doesn't, he will be irrelevant. In every state, that 15% rule is in place. If you can't get 15%, you get no delegates and the votes you get are divided proportionally to assign delegates to the other candidates, depending on their percentages of the vote.

Can O'Malley muster that much support this week? We'll see next Tuesday when the caucus vote count is available.

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Is it 15% statewide, or in each individual caucus?

[bigtree]

12. it's individual caucus, not statewide

...he could definitely come out of Iowa with delegates.

[Peacetrain]

14. Iowan here... 15% individual caucus..

over 1600 precincts in Iowa.. some of the precincts double up in a caucus..but each one has its own precinct captain even if they are sharing a caucus space..

He is going to get delegates..

[elleng]

16. He is going to get delegates..

[DavidDvorkin]

15. Thanks

I thought I had read that it was by individual caucus.

This is becoming encouraging, after months of discouraging news.

[MineralMan]

17. The delegates are generally assigned by congressional districts.

That's how it is in Iowa and Minnesota, anyhow. Each precinct where a caucus is held is in a congressional district, which contains many precincts. In Minnesota, a congressional district convention is held sometime after the caucuses. At that convention, the totals from all of the precincts are how the delegates to the state convention are apportioned. At the state convention, those delegates from all the congressional districts elect delegates to the national convention, all based on the proportionality of those initial caucus votes.

In Minnesota, 50 of the national convention delegates are selected that way, divided up among the congressional district. In addition, 17 "at large" delegates are chosen, but, again, based on initial caucus voting totals. Another 10 delegates are superdelegates, and include members of congress and Senators, our Democratic governor, Democratic National Committee members and one distinguished party leader (Walter Mondale).

All 77 delegates will go to the National Convention. 67 are pledged to vote in accordance with caucus results. The other 10 can vote as they please.

Iowa's system is similar, but has differences. You can see how delegates are chosen there at this link:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-D

[DaGimpster]

19. Given the level of negativity

anything is possible, and I wouldn't count him out of 15% in some precincts. I would say that would be a ceiling though at this point.

[MineralMan]

20. National convention delegates are not assigned

from individual precincts. Rather, they are assigned at the congressional district level. Individual precincts voting is pooled within each congressional district and those are the numbers that determine the number and proportion of delegates. It is at that level that the 15% rule kicks in. However, even at the individual precincts, if a candidate cannot get 15% of caucus goers, he gets no delegates to the next level and caucus goers must join with the group of another candidate.

Iowa uses a form of the "walking caucus" system on the precinct level. In Minnesota the precinct level has an election, where attendees can vote. The "walking caucus" system doesn't come into play until higher level conventions are held.

It's pretty complicated, really. It took me one cycle to completely understand Minnesota's system.

[bigtree]

9. kick

[Peacetrain]

13. That is great read!!

[DaGimpster]

18. I've been really

surprised that Governor O'Malley hasn't ticked up here in Iowa.

We have a local progressive politician here in Des Moines named Ed Fallon who was pretty pro-O'Malley, but seems to have conceded that he's not been able to move the needle.

He's a pretty young guy, and I don't think it'll be the last I hear about him though.