Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: South Carolina-Hillary-90%, Bernie-10%

[Alfresco]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/#polls-only

According to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 90% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

[riversedge]

1. Mayor Joe Riley understands the stakes in the election. It's why he's supporting @HillaryClinton.

Found some HillaryforSC posts for your thread. Hope ok





Hillary for SC Retweeted
Stephanie ‏@FormasForever Jan 23

Mayor Joe Riley understands the stakes in the election. It's why he's supporting @HillaryClinton. #sctweets


:large

[Alfresco]

2. Thanks riversedge. Add all you like. :-) No prob.

[onehandle]

3. Percentages are owned by Wall Street.

The CLICKY-CLICKY will prevail!

[img][/img]

[workinclasszero]

4. 90%

This will be a HUGE win for Hillary!

[Alfresco]

5. One of many. :-)

[workinclasszero]

6. Yes!

[DCBob]

7. Bernie will defy statistics...

and math and logic and reality.

[randome]

13. Will gravity be far behind?

Imagine: a Bernie who can fly at will!
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]

[DCBob]

20. ..

[NanceGreggs]

27. Well, yeah ...

... because all polls are a product of "corporate math".

[MoonRiver]

8. Love those numbers!

[JRLeft]

9. As a Bernie supporter I understand if he loses Iowa the primary race is over.

He has to win there.

[Tarc]

10. Iowa is a symbolic win for either candidate

In 2008 it split 16/15/14 for Obama, Edwards, and Clinton respectively. A win in Iowa is a nice buzz, but it rarely actually matters in the long run.

[JRLeft]

11. Bernie needs to show everyone he can win he needs Iowa and New Hampshire.

[joshcryer]

12. Yeah, it becomes increasingly insurmountable.

A good showing in IA would still be OK, it wouldn't be the end, a bad loss or a surprise Dean style loss would end it very quickly.

[Godhumor]

15. Iowa definitely means more to Bernie than Clinton, but

If he loses Iowa but wins NH, he would still be considered in the race.

Weird dynamic to be sure:

Clinton could lose both the first two states and Nevada and still be considered an overwhelming favorite due to the states that come after (If she loses those 3 and SC, on the other hand...).

Bernie could lose Iowa and win NH and still be considered a longshot. But, weirdly, that holds true even if he wins both.

If he manages to lose both, Clinton pivots to the GE and the primary becomes an afterthought.

For all practical purposes, Clinton has a three primary buffer versus a one primary buffer for Sanders.

Give Sanders credit, though, very few people even thought he'd be in the conversation at this point.

[awake]

14. Has Nate ever been right this year

I heard that all of his perdiction are wrong so far has anyone else heard that?

[wildeyed]

22. You could check.

Seriously. He has a website. You don't need to rely on rumors. But also, he only just started primary forecasting, so there has not been an opportunity for him to be wrong.

[NurseJackie]

16. Wow!

[Motown_Johnny]

17. Nate uses endorsements in his predictions.

I am not sure that they will be as important this time around since the fight seems to be insider v outsider. The insider getting the establishment endorsements just don't seem as important.

Also...


http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/lawyer-for-walter-scott-family-switches-sides-to-endorse-bernie-sanders/

^snip^

The lawyer for the family of Walter L. Scott, who was fatally shot by a police officer in South Carolina, is withdrawing his support from Hillary Clinton and endorsing Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on Monday afternoon.




On the bright side, it is nice to see Clinton supporters already retreating to her "firewall" states. Good luck with that.

[wildeyed]

23. No, that is the polls-only number.

Polls-plus puts her at 94/6.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

[underpants]

30. He does? Well endorsements do often come with a block of voters

and volunteers. There are still local party bosses in each party. Getting their support is important.

[DefenseLawyer]

18. To quote Bill Clinton

Last edited Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:19 PM - Edit history (1)

Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice.

[EndElectoral]

19. What chance does any Democrat have of winning the GE in South Carolina?

[Number23]

21. Sweet Georgia Brown. That is.. brutal.

[Bill USA]

24. you realize you've established yourself as a hateful, horrible, terrible person for posting this.

There will be no room in Heaven for heretics like you!!!!!!

[Alfresco]

31. Yes I know. I am just another Hillary supporter on GD-P. :-)

[Ferd Berfel]

25. Nate is out on a limb, and sawing as fast as he can

His brand will be toast after Iowa and NH

[Fearless]

26. If you believe that I have a bridge for sale.

[Sheepshank]

28. Bernie has no game plan beyond SC and Nevada

If he is able to win any of those first four states, he will have been able to save face....and that is all.

[underpants]

29. Iowa and NH are important both Super Tuesday will probably decide the winner

for both parties.