Two Dozen Clinton Insiders: Clinton Losing For Same Old Reasons as 2008

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/hillary-vs-iowa-213544

Letter From Iowa: Why Hillary And Iowa Don't Mix

After her humbling third-place finish behind Barack Obama and John Edwards in 2008, Hillary Clinton hit the caucus state this year with an eye on not just victory, but redemption, committing money, time and an immense ground operation in an effort not only to beat Sanders but vanquish the ghosts of ’08.

Instead, she has watched a sickening slow-motion sequel. Bernie Sanders is no Obama, the original anti-Hillary, but he’s pushing her to the edge. With only two weeks to go before the caucuses, Sanders pulled within 2 percentage points in the latest Des Moines Register poll released last week. The problem, according to interviews with two dozen Clinton insiders and Iowa operatives, isn’t with Clinton’s new and improved operation, but with a candidate hampered by her old, familiar limitations.

Much more goodness at the link, especially the part of how Grandparents are going to be carpooling several van-loads of college students to the Caucuses.

[Vinca]

1. I watched her in an interview yesterday and, in the space of 5 minutes, she went from

a likeable candidate a person might consider supporting to a stern looking and semi-snarky candidate who seemed offended she was being asked tough questions. She seems to have a hard time overcoming the entitlement mentality. It reminds me of the Obama remarks in 2008 and cracking wise about "the heavens opening."

[SoapBox]

15. Many months ago I said...she would eventually get that "look" on her face...

I knew it, I knew it...don't remember exactly when it happened in 2008, maybe some debates, but she got a really mad-angry-sour-etc. look on her face...it really showed that she could not contain herself.

And it was a super duper turn off.

[Duval]

26. I've noticed that "look" more recently...

It is most unattractive and a real turn off. As my Granddaughters say :"EWWWWW".

[bigdarryl]

47. So now we are into how Hillary does facial expressions JESUS!!

[PeoViejo]

2. History is a cruel Master.

Impossible to get away from.

In the 'Old Days,' the Invisible Hand' at work, relied on Anonymity and Secrecy.

It doesn't work that way Today.

[cali]

3. It's absurd to say she's losing

[berni_mccoy]

4. She's losing in NH and losing ground in Iowa...

but of course, you are right, she's not lost (yet).

[Proserpina]

6. If the people on her team, on the ground, say she's losing, and in public

believe me, she's losing.

[Doctor_J]

5. She doesn't seem to have a personality any more. It's been entirely replaced by advisor-approved

sound bites. I think she'll carry the GE comfortably, but the party and the country won't make any progress. She'll be too busy "being the first female president", triangulating, and battling law suits and impeachment inquiries to do much good

[Betty Karlson]

24. She won't carry the GE, because that will be Sanders' job.

And her personality is not just replaced by advisors, but also by focus groups and carefully selected poll samples.

That's why she is a follower, not a leader. And right now, the USA need a leader. Clinton is therefore surplus to requirement.

[berni_mccoy]

40. I hope that you are right re:GE.

I have my doubts.

[backscatter712]

43. The real danger is she'll squeak by the primaries, and fall on her face in the general.

Seriously, she's a lousy campaigner, who's losing ground to opponents, even when she's got the advantage in fundraising, and in insider support. All the Beltway Democrats are scrambling to clear a path through her, and she's still struggling.

What happens when she goes against the Republicans. Say what you will about Donald Trump, but he's got charisma, which is what makes him dangerous. Maybe he'll lose to Hillary, but maybe a scandal will pop up, or maybe there will be an October Surprise, and we could be looking at President Trump.

Hillary's a shitty campaigner. She can barely keep up when she's playing the election game on easy mode.

[KingCharlemagne]

54. Think Adlai Stevenson, '52 and '56 (version 2.0) and start making plans for

President Trump in January, 2017.

[Fast Walker 52]

7. fairly or not, there is too much scandal associated with her, and she has too many negatives, plus

her habit of giving legalistic and evasive answers that turn many people off.

[asuhornets]

8. Losing???

She has an 80% chance of winning in Iowa and a 90% chance of winning SC. Looks like winning numbers to me.

[berni_mccoy]

9. Right. Why don't you take that up with her team then?

Or maybe those numbers you have aren't keeping up with the reality of this race.

[Tarc]

10. The reality being...

that "winning Iowa" is at best symbolic (the delegates went 16/15/14 to the top 3 in 2008), and that Bernie should be expected to win his neighboring state?

After that, Sanders won't win another state till his home VT on March 1st.

[berni_mccoy]

12. Ahhh yes, you are still laughing at Bernie...

Some are fighting him...

[Kentonio]

22. You should probably tell that to the rapidly closing gap in Nevada.

[artislife]

34. I find Nevada to be the one to watch.

3 strong showings for Sanders!

[1StrongBlackMan]

52. Bernie is down in Nevada ...

About the same he is polling nationally, about 20.

Nevada will be far indicative of the national mood then Iowa or N.H.

[catnhatnh]

39. But Wait!

Isn't Vermont Hillary's neighboring state?

[Tarc]

41. Hillary carpetbagged NY

I have no shame in acknowledging that.

[asuhornets]

53. Amen n/t

[bigdarryl]

48. Asuhornets your right some of these DU people act as if voting started

I would caution them don't count Hillary out just yet.Remember 2008 New Hampshire she was supposed to get blown out in that state.She was down 15 points in the polls but she had the better ground game

[asuhornets]

55. I agree with you..

I firmly believe she will win Iowa.

[CSStrowbridge]

11. Oh for fuck's sake...

"Two Dozen Clinton Insiders: Clinton Losing For Same Old Reasons as 2008"

HILLARY CLINTON IS AHEAD IN IOWA, NEVADA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NATIONALLY.

ON THE OTHER HAND...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

OBAMA WAS A HEAD IN THE POLLS IN IOWA BEFORE THE CAUCUS.

It's getting fucking scary how so many Bernie Sanders supports are acting like their candidate has already won. If there's a better way to end up losing than to act live you've already won, I don't know what that is.

[fbc]

16. Bernie has already won.

He may not win this election, but he wins every day. He is changing the political dialog and moving the party to where it should be. He is gaining new enthusiastic supporters for a progressive movement in this country. He is showing people that the democratic party does not have to be the party of weak republican collaborators.

[CSStrowbridge]

37. Overton Window.

"Bernie has already won. He may not win this election, but he wins every day."

Bernie Sanders has moved the Overton Window to the Left. Everyone should be thanking him for that.

[SoapBox]

17. Nope...he hasn't won...yet.

I'll contrast your comments with the ones of arrogance, attitude, "it's her turn", assumption and all of that.

Making her The Annointed ONE and having the nerve to tell all of us that we will vote for her...well sorry...this is still America...we the People still have choices and may exercise our vote as we choose. And when we see a candidate that is being set up/ginned up for a position by a political party (DNC), it's organizational leader (DWS), Entrenched Establishment types (DINO's), impotent media and is supported by millionaires/billionaires, Wall Street and a military industrial complex....

It's too much to take by millions and millions of Americans...we've had enough with being dominated and ruled by the rich. She is no miracle worker. She's a Clinton and she has her own (and her rich, power hungry associates) best interests in mind...NOT the interests of the 99%.

And if, only if, she happens to be the general candidate...she will lose. Period.

[CSStrowbridge]

38. She will only lose if...

"And if, only if, she happens to be the general candidate...she will lose. Period."

She will only lose if idiots Bernie Sanders supporters decide punishing Hillary Clinton is more important that helping millions of Americans.

[questionseverything]

42. 30% of the country identify as dems, about 35% repubs and the rest indys

the indys get to decide and she does terrible with them

that is why if hc is the dem nominee the repubs win,unfortunately

time to wake up peops,bernie does great with indys, he is the only candidate we dems have that can win the general

[CSStrowbridge]

60. Wrong.

You are wrong about the percentage of people who identify as Dem, GOP, Indie.

You are also wrong about Bernie Sanders doing better than Hillary Clinton.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/26/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-says-he-polls-better-against-gop-ca/

[Z_California]

44. This is what you don't get

Many of Bernie's supporters have never been motivated to vote before because they felt like they had no choice. You can call them idiots all you want, but that's not going to help your candidate. The system is rigged and a lot of people won't show up unless there's some hope of unrigging it.

[madokie]

49. "idiot Bernie Sanders supporters"

are you sure you're at the right place? I'm not so sure of that
Did you stumble on the way in and wind up here by mistake?

Serious questions for you CSS

[CSStrowbridge]

59. Yes.

"idiot Bernie Sanders supporters" doesn't mean "all Bernie Sanders supporters are idiots."

[Ino]

18. Oh, like this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251604135

Hillary is going to win.....

She will win most of the Democratic primaries, most of the delegates, nearly all the super delegates and she will win the General Election as well.

I know many think Bernie is different and everyone will flock to his banner....but fact is that most won't. ....and many of us have been around to see it all play out before. Some virtual unknown captures some people's attention for awhile, rises so far in the polls and then doesn't go anywhere. This is happening just like it has before and more than likely will during the next election.

....we know who will be representing the Democratic Party in November of 2016. Her name is Hillary. She will win. That's called reality.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251835449#post42

Bernie Sanders has virtually zero chance of winning the nomination...

Barring an illness or something else of that magnitude, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee.

Sanders can and is helping shape the debate on the Democratic side, but he has no chance to be the nominee even if he wins Iowa and NH. Hillary is just too strong in almost every state.

Bernie and O'Malley are the sacrificial lambs of the 2016 Democratic Primary process.

The truth is Hillary NEEDS Sanders and O'Malley to stay in the race so it looks like she has to "fight" for the nomination. A nomination she won't even come close to being denied.

Sorry, it is what it is.

All Your Base Are Belong to Clinton

[berni_mccoy]

19. Perfect response. IMHO you win this exchange!

[madokie]

50. visions of 2008

comes readily to mind.

'scuse me but you're way off on all that tripe. I hope you didn't spend a lot of time on that reply 'cause if you did you wasted it

[Ino]

56. huh?

Methinks you must be replying to the wrong person?

[Dustlawyer]

51. Bernie hasn't won yet. I worry about the electronic voting machine counts in close elections.

There is too much money at stake and Bernie is scaring the Bejesus out of the Plutocrats!

[George II]

13. One could very easily find a handful of people in Iowa saying pretty much the same things about.....

....Sanders.

Anecdotes don't win elections.

The problem Sanders has in Iowa is that his support is concentrated in a few college towns - it's not spread across the state. He has saturated support in those towns and very little in other parts of Iowa. That's going to translate into more delegates for Clinton even if Sanders should happen to get more people voting for him.

[berni_mccoy]

14. I doubt you'll hear Sanders INSIDERs saying that though.

[Kentonio]

23. You have some evidence to support that claim about his support being centred on a few college towns?

[berni_mccoy]

33. Don't expect a response.

Camp weathervane is in full on poo-flinging mode.

[Proserpina]

35. Bernie has a twinkle in his eye, and his smile just gets broader with time

Hillary looks like her milk was soured at lunch time.

Nope, ain't gonna find no comfort in that.

[Kentonio]

20. Wow..

Momentum, for the moment, seems to be on Sanders’ side. At the Hamburg Inn restaurant in Iowa City (like Ames, another Sanders-friendly college town), a popular pit stop for politicians (Obama and Clinton regularly dropped in eight years ago to nibble on crinkle fries), customers are encouraged to drop a coffee bean in a row of jars labeled for each candidate. One Clinton volunteer who recently stopped by said she was dismayed to see the status of the jars. Hillary Clinton’s sat mostly empty. Sanders had received so many beans they’d had to put out a second jar. It was overflowing, too.

[Betty Karlson]

21. Good read. Thanks for the link. eom

[berni_mccoy]

45. You're welcome!

[randr]

25. The same case is true for any centrist Democrat

For over 40 years the Democrats have had to move toward the right in order to create a centrist governing body that could possibly get something done. And a lot of things were accomplished in that time. Not all good things but some of the major things Democrats have stood for. The nature of politics in general has deteriorated the the degree that a change is in order; this is evident on both sides of the fence. Democrats are struggling with forces from the left at long last that the Republicans have been struggling with on their side with for decades. A strong pull to the ideological principles that make us liberal or conservative is on display.
Our true natures have been hidden beneath a cloak of civility, that some call politically correct, and it is time to wave our freak flags high. Give the country the choice between the racist knuckle draggers showing up at Trump rallies or the progressive kind folk who have realized we can achieve our highest expectations.

[Orsino]

27. She's not losing.

She appears more vulnerable, but is still the nominee-presumptive.

[berni_mccoy]

28. As it's been said before... She's losing in NH and

Losing ground rapidly in all the early primaries. Her own people acknowledge this and you can see it in the recent changes in her campaign.

[Orsino]

30. Thus qualified, I agree.

The leader by enormous margins can afford to lose ground, and in fact should to any serious challenger. I distrust polling, but hope to see Sanders make further gains.

And the winner of early primaries gets a big boost.

[berni_mccoy]

32. Fair point.

[Divernan]

29. HRC operatives in CYA mode: if she loses, it's HER fault, not OURS!

The problem, according to interviews with two dozen Clinton insiders and Iowa operatives, isn’t with Clinton’s new and improved operation, but with a candidate hampered by her old, familiar limitations.

And not only Hillary's "old, familiar limitations", but Bill's interference, as in he's started calling Robbie Mook daily to second guess and carp. Robbie had enough on his plate without that.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/04/robby-mook-hillary-clinton-campaign-manager-profile

Robbie Mook Just Took the Hardest Job in Politics: Saving the Clintons from Themselves.

Robby Mook awoke on November 14, 2014, with a knife in his back.

At 6:01 that morning, ABC News published what it billed as a juicy scoop revealing the existence of a loyal, clubby group of Democratic staffers who called themselves the "Mook Mafia," so named for the star political operative, who was then a leading contender to run Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. In leaked emails, Mook, the group's self described "Deacon," urged his friends to "smite Republicans mafia-style." Mook's on-again, off-again colleague Marlon Marshall—a.k.a. "Most High Grown Ass Reverend Marlon D"—echoed his friend's bro-ish, mock-dramatic tone. "F U Republicans," he wrote to the list. "Mafia till I die."

ABC didn't name its source but described the person as a Mook Mafia list member who "does not support the idea of Mook or Marshall holding leadership roles" in a second Clinton presidential run. By leaking a cherry-picked series of emails, this source sought to knock Mook out of the running for the campaign manager job. Clinton's campaign was still in the earliest stages, and the infighting had already begun.

But the attempt to kneecap Mook backfired. Instead, the episode illustrated the dysfunctional, cutthroat atmosphere surrounding the Clintons and underscored the need for a campaign chief who could manage the competing factions within Hillary Clinton's universe. Embarrassing though the leak may have been, it bolstered the case for Mook, who's known for inspiring loyalty and handling outsize egos, to take the reins of Clinton 2016.

[berni_mccoy]

31. Excellent point.

As I've said before, once your own campaign people start leaking... it's not only bad, it's worse than you want it to be. Clinton is in bad shape at this point. Expect a campaign re-org after the early primaries. Mark Penn will be back and in the open.

[Proserpina]

36. She won't have the money for it, and he'd have to be a damn fool.

[colsohlibgal]

46. The Fix was In But It Is Not Taking

They casually admit they have been controlling the number of debates. That Bernie has been making a strong showing despite the Third Wayers trying to fix the game is evidence that people are waking up to the reality of the old George Carlin quote...." It is a big effing club and we're not in it".

[Arugula Latte]

57. Tonight she's gonna party like it's 1994!

She's a slow learner -- not a quality you'd want in a prez.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

58. The Hillary baggage car is outrunning the locomotive.

Again.

[amborin]

61. it's b/c the more people learn, the more they know she's for the billionaires