2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrand New ARG poll in Iowa: Sanders 48%; Clinton 45%; O'Malley 3% (S 55%; C 38%; O 3% in 18-49 demo)
Here is a link to the ARG polling data:
48% - Sanders
45% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley
Interesting internal numbers on 18-49 year olds:
55% - Sanders
38% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley
Also, look at the split among those (regardless of age) who were polled by cell phone (versus landline):
53% - Sanders
38% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)they are tied or she is slightly ahead.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)That claim makes as much sense as saying Bernie is really 13% ahead.
Both are ridiculous.
I will agree that this is a virtual tie, but you can't claim Hillary to be slightly ahead based on this poll.
Goblinmonger
(22,340 posts)The cell phone one should scare the shit out of Clinton. Most people don't have land lines.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Last edited Mon Jan 25, 2016, 05:44 PM - Edit history (1)
Here is how the race in Iowa has developed according to ARG:
Here is how the race in Iowa has developed according to the aggregation of ALL live phone polling (including those, like Loras, which have a HUGE pro-Clinton house effect):
When comparing the two charts, note that the ARG chart goes back only to June so the left quarter of the all polls chart includes numbers that predate the earliest ARG Iowa polling this cycle.
ARG had Clinton steady while other polls showed her falling in the summer and fall, and ARG has her losses plateauing in January whereas the other polls indicate the Clinton free fall isn't over.
ARG has not shown much house effect and has certainly not shown a pro-Sanders house effect.
Also, ARG is a live cell and landline phone poll of likely caucus goers. That's pretty much the top of the line in terms of methodology.
No one is saying this poll predicts doom for Clinton or that a poll takes the place of the actual caucus a week from now. However, if you are a Sanders campaign worker freezing his or her ass off in Iowa, this is a nice confirmation that all of the hard work is paying off and Sanders is on the right track. One more week of hard campaigning left in Iowa and then on to New Hampshire and Nevada!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)draa
(975 posts)This is what's needed in these discussions.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The last couple of cycles were not great for them.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Me too!
TheBlackAdder
(28,208 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)that he's offering a snapshot in time and this picture evolves as new data comes in. New data is coming in and Silver's model will narrow (because of the way Silver values endorsements, Sanders will always be Silver's underdog, but Silver will show the race tightening).
senz
(11,945 posts)Thanks for the OP, AiT.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)The reality is, Hillary is WAY ahead, by a HUGE margin.
senz
(11,945 posts)They sure do get excited about polls.
Here's what I learned from them:
All polls showing Bernie ahead are invalid.
All polls showing Hillary ahead are solid.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)TDale313
(7,820 posts)I think all this tells us is it seems to be close. Could go either way, and will come to turnout, which relies on organization (adv Hillary?) and enthusiasm (possible adv Bernie?)
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I mention the snow forcast and you are accusing me of voter suppression and being Karl Rove!
Are you for real?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)reduced voter turn out, it kinda seems Rovian.
We're Democrats -- we want to expand the vote and not hope for circumstances which make it hard for people to vote.
Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I withdrew the Rove reference.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I said there is snow in the forcast. That will be a factor.
Seems like you just want to call me names.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)that was not your intent, I'm glad that we agree that as Democrats we should want to encourage turnout and not hope for conditions unfavorable for a high turnout (because that is what Republicans do).
I presume the other pose is being sarcastic.
If not, I agree it is a completely un-Democratic sentiment.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Its called you have double standards.
DaGimpster
(130 posts)... and will be taking any neighbors who need a ride.
All jokes aside though, in '08 it was wicked cold out here, but no snow. It certainly could have implications for all candidates.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)It certainly keeps ME at home....
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Wow!
John Poet
(2,510 posts)The snow just tends to come with it.
If it weren't for their politics, I'd live in Arizona...
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)That is what you said.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)SURE, why not? Then my candidate would be sure to win.
NO, seriously, I would like EVERYONE to vote who is ELIGIBLE--
(which would actually include more independents than Democrats).
That work for you?
Actually, I was making a joke about myself but you H folks are particularly humorless of late, are you not? I can certainly understand why you would be, now.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)The 99% is paying attention! We hear you loud and clear!
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
WillyT
(72,631 posts)draa
(975 posts)Thanks.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Red-baiting still works on people over 50.