Nate Silver: Obama's Lead is Starting to Look Insurmountable

[TroyD]

Mon Sep. 24, 2012 8:09 PM PDT

Mother Jones summarizes some of the highlights of Nate's forecast tonight:

Nate Silver has an epic post today about late September polls from past years and how well they predict the eventual winner of a presidential race. Here are the highlights:

Obama is currently up by 3.7%. No candidate in the past 50 years has lost a lead that big.

No candidate with more than 47% of the vote in late September has ever lost. Obama is currently at 48.3%.

Big changes in the final month aren't impossible, but they've gotten rarer in the past 20 years.

It's not true that undecided voters tend to break for the challenger in the last few weeks of a race.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/09/obamas-lead-starting-look-insurmountable

[msongs]

1. Maybe Obama can start making ads for house and senate races nt

[tclambert]

15. He can do so, while still dissing Romney by attacking Republican philosophy in general.

Many of their policy positions are failures on historical and empirical grounds. Tax cuts for the rich creates jobs--tried it twice, didn't result in massive job gains, rather in rising UNemployment. Deregulation or allowing business interests to regulate themselves--led to unrestrained behavior that nearly tanked multiple industries (airlines, savings and loans, investment banks), and inevitably leads to decreased social responsibility of many businesses (increased pollution, decreased health and safety measures to protect workers and customers, transfer of more jobs to countries supporting what is essentially slave labor).

[Drunken Irishman]

1. *knock on wood*

[Sherman A1]

3. The question becomes

the takeaway reasoning for the GOP when things go sour in November. Do they simply blame Mitt as a terrible candidate (which he is) or do they look to the wacky Tea Party element as the cause.

This should prove interesting.

[calimary]

4. But let's not get complacent. We don't have this thing won yet.

Even so, I admit I wonder about that all the time - what will the GOP do to recover, longterm (and is that even possible, considering the demographic shifts in evidence even now)? Will they think they weren't CON enough or religious extremist enough, or will they start waking up to the reality-based world?

But all of that can wait. Let's win this thing first.

[Sherman A1]

6. While I agree with you

It was obvious from the early GOP primaries that Romney would be the GOP Placeholder this election. I frankly never believed that they really wanted to win this one. I believe they are looking more toward 2016 and running Jeb Bush or perhaps Christie. It's far easier with the seat being open.

[TroyD]

7. Why on earth would Jeb Bush run?

Why would Americans elect the brother of George W. Bush?

And why would the Republicans think it's okay for the Presidency to belong to one family?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. The "lose this one to install Bush" meme makes little sense and doesn't square with facts

Presidential power is so large, the equivalent of about 40 senators plus a hundred representatives, that no party would turn down the chance to gain it.

The other fact is that Obama faced a demoralized electorate weakened by a very slow and tepid recovery from a massive recession. By ordinary standards that means a change in the presidency. Also, there had been a huge shift in the House in 2010.

The reason there were so many Republicans running is that they thought Obama would be a knockover. The reason they were so weak and evenly contentious was because of the party got bushwhacked by the billionaires who funded and pumped up the "grassroots" Tea Parties (plural). The party had already been slowly walking more rightward every year but got booted hard right in 2009 and 2010. Some of the more moderate potential candidates read the winds and stepped aside from the storm in 2011.

It would be great if Obama's lead turns into to long coattails to give him the House and Senate he needs for the budget and the SCotUS.

[Curtland1015]

10. Agreed. This whole "they're throwing the election" idea never made sense to me.

They simply wouldn't even consider the idea.

Sometimes I think people give republicans too much credit in their organizational skills.

That and people like to make conspiracy theories out if everything.

[Cosmocat]

14. YEP

I think there are the Grover Norquist types who are into the starve the beast mindset who are always in the background, but for the most part they just make it up as they go along.

I agree with the post that there were so many candidates because the whole party, as it is prone to do, believed the reality that it created that President Obama was as bad as they wanted to think he was, and was going to be a pushover.

[NYtoBush-Drop Dead]

28. It's McCains fault.

The reason every wacko on the right ran in this election is because McCain picked the lip -sticked pig. That opened the flood gates for every wack-a-doodle in the Repug/Bagger party to run. That and God told them to run.

[bucolic_frolic]

44. Hey

Let's not forget Joe the Plumber.

McCain had those mavericky ideas, real, imaginary, marketing, or political.

Remember his dash to Manhattan to fix Wall Street.

He just didn't want to recognize it was already fixed.

Is this the mirror of 1972? Are Tea Partiers the Woodstock of the Religious Nuts?

[Springslips]

58. I like to think that Obama is a little too ethical

To allow members of his campaign to break into RNC headquarters; but if he isn't, I am damn positive he smart enough to send capable spies who would be smart enough to not leave behind a shitload of evidence leading to White House in a hotel room in the case they are caught.

[calimary]

57. Welcome to DU!

Glad to have you with us, and yeah, I think mcsame and the Tundra Tart made it possible for ding-dongs to come out of the wordwork and appropriate "respectability" for themselves - when there wasn't any. Just a bunch of empty suits and empty heads.

We need you to help us make sure these bastards don't gain any more power!





Now get to work.

[Sherman A1]

49. You draw your conclusions, I will draw mine

I found the GOP Primaries (or flavor of the week) to indicate that the whole media show was simply extended theater for the "news" organizations in which to build the entire horse race concept. Romney was generally held back from the cycle of "he's up, he's down, he's up again, he's out." Their pick as a placeholder candidate was pretty obvious early on and the rest was simply theatrics. 2012 was far too early to run Jeb without drawing obvious links to his brother's failures. It would be too simple to point out the financial meltdown was on his watch. Given a bit more breathing space the blame in people's mind can be placed at Obama's alleged failure to make it all better.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

51. Sure, 8 yrs gives some space to Jeb, but GWBush is loathed deeply all over. No, people like Newt

Sure, 8 yrs gives some space to Jeb, but GWBush is loathed deeply all over. No, people like Newt don't participate in expensive time-consuming charades to pump other candidates. He's too smart to get taken in by something like that. But you, though you are not plugged in to the Republican inner circles, are smarter than Newt? Or are you plugged in to Republican inner circles and know things that Newt doesn't (not just suspictions or sketchy conclusions of your own)?

Who is this uber-GOP that controls the primaries so minutely?

What is this "was held back from the cycle" business? Seems vague.

Never attribute to malice (grand conspiracy) that which can be explained by incompetence. The GOP and the Ts have lots of incompetence to go around, generated and fueled by an arrogance that breeds statements like "We create our own reality" and "We don't need fact checkers", etc.

[Sherman A1]

53. You could be right or

you could be wrong and perhaps I am right or perhaps we are both wrong and someone else is right.

As I stated, you draw your conclusions and I will draw mine.

[pdxDemocrat]

9. They wanted it.

If Mitt hadn't repeatedly shot himself in the foot in his mouth this race would be closer. The idea that Republicans weren't in it to win flies against everything we know (or should have learned) about their willingness to fight for power and wealth - ethics, rules, morals and "good Christian values" be damned.

[tclambert]

11. Sometimes higher level patterns emerge from lower level actions, without conscious planning.

It's called emergent phenomenon. Examples abound in insect behavior (ants and bees particularly), computers, and economic markets. The seeming action of an invisible hand spoken of by Adam Smith in 1776 emerges from the myriad decisions of customers acting according to their individual best interests (or advertising with celebrity testimonials). These buying decisions combine to make larger unintended patterns emerge. (With advertisers fighting against each other, even they don't fully control the results. If they did, New Coke would have been a big success instead of an epic failure.)

The Republicans face the unintended consequences of embracing the Tea Party and their own ideological propaganda, while rejecting facts, reality, and science. Republicans willing to compromise extreme political philosophy to go with what actually works could not win any support in the primaries.

Or b), the Koch brothers are idiots. The unintended consequence of the Citizens United Supreme Court decision loosed idiot money in quantities vast enough to poison the Republican party.

[mac56]

26. This.

[hifiguy]

31. You are on to something profound here.

After the lambasting the 'pigs took in '06 and '08 they made a calculated gamble and invented/embraced the teabaggers thinking that it would be a net plus. Once they let that particular group of belching and flatulent orcs out of the dungeon - with some unintentional help from McCain when he tapped Princess Dumbass for VP - they became a force unto themselves.

Much like Doctor Frankenstein, the monster they created turned on them and scared the living bejeezus out of a lot of people in the mushy, low-info middle. The monster is now running amok and there is no way to save the castle without killing the monster in the process; similarly there is no way to kill the monster without blowing up the castle. The Repigs are fked for one reason and one reason only: they tried making a deal with the devil and they fked themselves.

Look for an interparty bloodbath of staggering proportions after Rmoney is greased big-time in the election. The plutocrats have the money, the lunatics have the numbers. There is no longer any way to duct-tape the Raygun "coalition" back together.

[99 Percent Sure]

60. Yes! +1. eom

[Lisa D]

37. Nice post!

[slydog1227]

67. I agree with HiFiguy here...

I think you are on to something TC. I think its quite obvious and the Republicans seem to do it at every turn. Just as they rode Sarah Palins stupidity right into the ground. Once they take a turn down a closed road, they simply ignore the signs and the associated logic until they're bobbing in the river. It makes no sense to me. Its certainly not logical.

[amuse bouche]

50. Jeb will not run

He had a calamitous time as governor and his family was always getting in trouble

But his biggest problem is that his wife detests D.C and wants no part of it

[Atypical Liberal]

65. I don't think the GOP can recover.

As a former Republican, I don't think the GOP can recover.

First of all, the "conservative" ideology has been on the losing side of history for a long, long time. They have opposed every major progress of social justice since...forever. From civil rights for African-Americans, to voting rights for women, to reproductive rights, to labor rights, to gay rights, to immigration, conservatives have stood in the way. As a result of this, they have alienated more and more people until they have painted themselves into a minority corner, and one that is dwindling, at that.

Since they have become the refuge of religious extremists and anti-science, anti-knowledge, anti-education kinds of people, they have a real problem. That problem is the Internet and smart phones. As I heard someone say yesterday, "Thanks to pervasive internet connectivity, today, ignorance is a choice."

People, particularly young people who live in technology, now have instant access to knowledge. It's going to be harder and harder to count on an ignorant demographic for votes. Flip-flopping is going to get harder and harder. The internet does not forget.

There are only two things that could "save" the Republican party, and I don't see either one of them happening:

1) They must reject corporate influence and so fight for the interests of people over money.
2) They must accept, really accept and not just lip service, people from all races, creeds, religions, and sexual orientations, so as to grow rather than shrink their numbers.

[Cosmocat]

12. One minute past midnight they will run Romney over with the bus

back over him and repeat that 1,000 times.

They also are going to do what the do.

Bush won a pretty narrow win in 04, but had a MANDATE.

BO is likely to win by a markedly larger margin, but they will pick ONE thing, a senate seat they lose or do not get, something like that, and say THIS PROVES HE IS A WEAK SECOND TERM PRESIDENT. He beat a weak candidate and won unconvincingly.

The "liberal" media, of course will pick up on it, and they will quickly work to try to disempower him.

[NewJeffCT]

17. you're right

in 2008, Obama won the biggest percentage of the popular vote since Poppy Bush in '88 as well.

[Cosmocat]

21. See, 2008 does not really exist, 2010 does

he was repudiated in 2010 because of how bad he was from 2001 to 2009 ...

[NYtoBush-Drop Dead]

29. Bush Didn't win in 2004

It was stolen in Ohio. It could happen again.

[Kali]

32. welcome to DU!

oh wait you have been here since 2005?

[Pachamama]

66. Ohio was stolen in 2004 and your absolutely correct that it could happen again....

I was an election protection poll worker in Ohio on election day in 2004...I was there with teams of lawyers, law students and volunteers from around the country and rotated to 4 different polling stations that day. Between what I witnessed and what everyone was reporting as we would check back at the election headquarters and get something to eat and our next assignment, there is NO DOUBT that we witnessed the stealing of an election. I witnessed long lines at each voting location in the ice rain as people (in mostly democratic blue collar areas like Akron- Canton areas) had people coming to us saying they had been voting there for decades and even as recently in the primaries of 2004 and were then told after long waits that they werent shown on the books as being registered to vote there. In many cases because these people were on lunch breaks and had to leave because of long lines, many didnt come back or if they did for the second or 3rd time couldnt vote. If this had been at one location or two, I would have said it was a fluke, a glitch....but it was EVERYWHERE!!!! There were also Republican operatives who were calling out people and "challenging" their right to vote (a funky little voting law in OH) and then those people were required to use a provisional ballot.....and we know what happened to those provisional ballots.

I remember election night in the hotel room late and listening to the news saying they still didnt have a winner, that it was coming down to Ohio....and I shook my head knowing what I had seen all day long and having no doubt in my mind that it had been by design....

When Kerry refused to challenge the results, I went into a deep funk for months....there was no doubt in my opinion that the election was stolen by the GOP and Bush Co (was convenient to that the OH Sec. Of State certifying the results was Bush's OH re-election Chair) and when Kerry didnt challenge it after myself and many had raised Hundreds of 1000's of dollars for a legal fund to "prevent a repeat of 2000" - I lost pretty much all faith that we the people have any power in having a fair election, that the powers be had done what they wanted and the decision was made by them, not us.

I voted for Obama, will again and I donate....but my rose colored glasses and the passion I had where I traveled to other states will never be the same....not after what I saw....and that is why nothing will surprise me again - especially in Ohio.

[n2doc]

13. They'll blame Mitt

It has already started. Not unless/until the t-p'ers in congress start losing their jobs despite Koch money will they start to question their assumptions.

[NewJeffCT]

16. The teabaggers will say

it's because Mitt wasn't a true conservative. Rush, Hannity, etc will support that view.

[4lbs]

30. The Teabaggers should then be told that the "not a true Conservative" is the one that won most of

the states in the primaries, while the "true Conservatives" like Newt, Santorum, and Bachmann, fizzled miserably.

That means the American populace, in general, DOES NOT WANT A TRUE CONSERVATIVE IN CHARGE!

If they did, a "true conservative" would have won the GOP primaries.

[NewJeffCT]

56. and their response will be

it was a conspiracy by the liberal media to give us a candidate that Obama could most easily beat.

Remember - the party of personal responsibility always has an excuse where they can blame somebody else.

[nxylas]

33. Blame the Tea Party? No chance!

On the contrary, all we'll hear is that Mitt Romney wasn't conservative enough, that people won't vote for a fake Democrat when they can vote for a real one, and how if Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann had been the nominee, they'd have had a Reagan v Mondale-style blowout. Baggers genuinely think they represent the majority opinion in America, and that it's only because of the liberal media and the "government schools" brainwashing people that they can't get their candidates elected.

[Skittles]

5. they will be desperate for an October surprise

[helpisontheway]

18. I'm thrilled that Nate said that BUT

I keep thinking that President Obama defied the odds during the last cycle. Indiana? North Carolina? Virginia? It had been many years since a candidate did that. Also, the media keeps saying presidents do not usually win elections when the unemployment number I'd so high. I'm very happy that the President is leading Mitt Romney though. I hope he delivers the knockout punch during the debates. I won't breathe a huge sigh of relief until the media states that it is all over and that President Obama gets another term.

[speedoo]

39. Nate did NOT say it.. Mother Jones said it.

OP's subject line is incorrect and very misleading.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

19. What's different now than in the last 50 years:

We now have Citizens United and unlimited black money being spent against Dem candidates. We now have epidemic and rampant voter suppression. Nothing has been done about these issues in the past and now they are worse than ever and will continue to degrade our election system in the U.S. until these fascists are stopped.

If Obama loses this, it won't be because he lost. It will be because IT WAS STOLEN. And this time, there will be. no. doubt.

(ie: his lead WOULD be insurmountable in a fair election. But that isn't what we are going to have.)

[TroyD]

24. Why is electoral theft still going on in the supposed leader of the free world?

And why don't the Democrats do something about it once and for all?

[bucolic_frolic]

45. Because Democrats lack the political power to pass that legislation

Bill Clinton should have strengthened our election system in the 90s

[Kolesar]

42. Voting was made much more accessible in the last decade

With more early voting and easier registration procedures. We advanced way past the conditions that led to the bush takeover in Florida in 2000.

Yes, the teabaggers have taken a lot of that away.

But it is not true to say "Nothing has been done about these issues in the past and now they are worse than ever ..."

[mojo2012]

20. Seems like it would be possible

If one of President Obama's ads could be a universal message that can be run in states with House/Senate seats in play to not only urge voters to vote for him but urge people to vote for Democrat for the House or Senate seat in their state.

I'm not sure when he says "the American people" can change Washington is getting through. I think the message has to be more blunt.

[DCBob]

22. Yeah, I think this is now outside the "margin of cheating".

But you never know with weasely Republicans.

[OhioworkingDem]

23. Its important to remember

For all us, who really want O to win, to do everything we can individually to help. Volunteer for the campaign, canvas, phone bank, etc. When we all do this it will only strengthen the probability of our hoped for outcome.

[bemildred]

25. It's about Congress now, and therefore even more important to kick Rmoneys ass. nt

[NYtoBush-Drop Dead]

27. All the money they raised...

I think they are planning on stealing this election. I am afraid. Very afraid.

[Grammy23]

34. Like you, I think there is plenty to fear from the Republicans---but

The antidote to our fear to is get out the vote. In addition, I have read here and other places that the stronger Obama's lead is the harder it will be for them to steal it. Over and over I have read that a close race is what they need in order to pull it off. I think that is part of their strategy .... to keep characterizing this race as close, even when the polls actually say something different. It is frustrating to me when the President is leading by 5 points or more and some talking head calls it a "close race". I think that is a psychological mind game they are playing with the electorate since many people do not have any real understanding of statistics and what polls tell us or even how to interpret what the numbers mean. (Margin of error, confidence intervals, etc.) So even if the gap between Obama and Romney is 5 points, they will SAY it is a close race to plant that seed in the mind of the voters.

We simply must not let down our guard and do everything we can to keep people on their toes. NO one should assume that this election is in the bag for Obama and therefore it's not necessary to go vote. We need to keep hammering out the message that VOTING is the only way we have it in the bag. And even then, we'll need poll watchers and others on the inside who can help make sure that there is no "witching hour" when strange things happen to the tallies.

On an optimistic note, the gaffs and blunders of the Romney campaign (and his falling poll numbers) have given me renewed hope that Obama WILL win on Nov. 6th. I much prefer to feel more confident and relaxed as we approach the end of this campaign. It makes life a whole lot better. But relaxation does not equal complacency. We CAN Remain vigilant and active even if our hair is not on fire.

[Mz Pip]

38. All that money

Initially I thought it would make a big difference, but I think there is a point of diminishing returns in all the Koch and Adelson millions. IT's overkill and people tune out.

I have a friend who lives in Ohio and she TIVOs everything and skips through the ads. I think a lot of people are doing that or at least hitting the mute button.

I live in CA and last election Meg Whitman spent millions and millions of her own money to win the governorship. She had so much advertising it was unreal. She lost anyway to an old Zen guy who pretty much ran his campaign from his kitchen table (maybe not quite but the analogy fits.). She had the same problem Romney had. People just didn't like her. All that money couldn't change that simple fact.

BTW Welcome to DU.

Mz Pip

[magical thyme]

35. Remember their backup plan is to take the senate and hold the house

We need to increase our hold on the senate and take back the house.

We need to give Obama all branches at least the next 2 years so that now we're past the "bi-partisanship" phase, he can do what we the people mandate.

[SoapBox]

36. I don't even want to hear this stuff...'cause it's not over till it's over.

AND, like others have said...

Plan B is to control the Senate and House...and create a total roadblock.

[speedoo]

40. OP, your subject line is incorrect and very misleading.

Nate Silver did NOT say that, Mother Jones did.

HUGE difference, and people need to read Nate's actual post. "Insurmountable" is a gross mischaracterization of Nate's comments.

[fun n serious]

41. There still could be theft.

We need to get people on the ground watching for fraud.

[budkin]

43. It'll be way too obvious at this point if they try and steal it

Sorry pukes, you lose.

[DemKittyNC]

46. Soooo....

Guess what I saw while driving home from school today... TONS of Pro-OBAMA signs all along the roads and in front of peoples houses!!!! And to top that off... NOT one SINGLE rmoney sign anywhere!!!! GO NORTH CAROLINA FOR OBAMA!!!!

[RBInMaine]

47. Other polls have him up by as much as 8. 4 is very conservative.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. Well, the last line wasn't true for Bush in Florida in 2004. Kerry was ahead the last poll and

Bush "won" by 3. Huge one day swing. And, the kicker, was that exit polls showed people made up their minds 2 weeks before.

[liberal N proud]

52. It has to be huge to save the Democratic process.

Anything close will give the GOP an opportunity to either challenge a win or steal it.

[1gobluedem]

54. We can't get complacent

There is too much at stake. We have to fight every second between now and Election Day. Don't let up.

[underpants]

55. ------------We still have to get the work in folks. Don't forget about the voter purges -----------

WORK!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

59. These voter suppression tactics are scaring the shit out of me, though!

[Ford_Prefect]

61. The big money is having a substantial effect on state and local elections.

The enormous amount of money has allowed the Extreme Right to attack on every level at once. Offices as low as county commissioner, school board, sheriff, tax collector, not to mention local magistrates and state Judges have been targeted. The press focus on the presidential level has obscured this activity in the states. We could still see significant erosion at the level of state legislature and governor and other state offices in a number of states. Add to that the Senate and House would still contain many Blue Dog Democrats.

As Bill Clinton said they are serious about what they expect to accomplish. They have dedicated an enormous effort and a huge fortune to do it with. They will use any means they can think of and they are good at doing that. Expect them to continue the effort since the payoff comes at all levels of government. And do not expect them to just go away. They are in it for the long haul even with Mitt at the top of the ticket.

Dominionist thinkers have enabled a Christian Jihad against anything they fear. They are as determined and destructive as any state sponsored terror organization. The Tea Party gave them public cover as a political force. The Koch brothers, Art Pope and many other very rich players see Christian extremists as both the tool to do their work and the logical extension of their own beliefs. They may not win the top office but they do expect to win some of everything else, are organized to do so, and are unlikely to go away after the election regardless of the results.

We still need to win as many seats in ALL of the elections as we can.

Mr. Silver may be correct about past and even recent trends in Polling and elections. I would like to believe the world has not gotten that far out of whack that his remarks would not hold true. Recent events in Wisconsin lead me to doubt. Previous experience with vote "adjustment" in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina give me reason to expect the same on a broader scale where ever the GOP think they can do it. They have far too much at stake not to try it and it has worked so very well for them in the past.

None of the previous elections had 1/4 this much money, this degree of partisanship, this amount of interference at so many levels of the voting process and this kind of fear and hatred.

I am not predicting doom here but I am saying it will be a long race to the finish. It may not be over on the morning after or the week after either. We may only be watching the next phase of the culture wars.

[Third Doctor]

62. I agree!

[donheld]

63. Mitt Romney built that

[avaistheone1]

64. Beware of an October Surprise.

Don't trust those republicans at all.