It's getting better all the time - Nate has his new numbers out - creeping up!

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Updated near 8 PM EST -

Obama now 79.7% forecast for election day, 312 Electoral Votes- with the Now Cast at 96.4%, 333 EVs

Good article posted as well today -

Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery

"The FiveThirtyEight forecast was essentially unchanged on Monday, with Barack Obama holding a 77.7 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Mr. Obama received a number of strong-looking state polls on Monday, including some from firms that had him with mixed numbers before. Probably the most noteworthy of these was a Wisconsin poll from the firm We Ask America, which put Mr. Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 11.5 percentage points there.

Recent polls have shown everything from a near-tie in Wisconsin to a 14-point lead for Mr. Obama. But on the whole, the data suggests that Mr. Obama has gained more ground in Wisconsin than in other states since the conventions — perhaps because they may have nullified a bounce that Mr. Romney had received in polls of Wisconsin in August following the selection of Representative Paul D. Ryan as his running mate.

Still, if the set of state polling was strong for Mr. Obama on Monday, the same has been true on most days over the past week or two. Further, in some of the swing states, there have been as many as a dozen poll releases since the convention, meaning that any one new poll usually won’t shift the FiveThirtyEight forecast all that much, especially if the firm conducting the survey is rated as being of middling quality."

snip

[CitizenPatriot]

1. please please trickle downticket:-) n/t

[valerief]

2. Only one thing the GOP can do for their October surprise.

A dead girl or a live boy in bed with the President. What else is left?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. I need Nate to factor in all the voter suppression. That's going to be a lot of noise because we

can't predict how the suppression will impact these results.

[Godhumor]

4. His faq addresses viewer suppression

It comes up all the time in the comments to his articles.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. I understand that, but I don't trust that he's right. There's all kinds of tactics and he can't

possibly track them all. We need to work HARD as if Obama is losing badly! I don't care what Nate Silver says.

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. I share your concern

[davidpdx]

7. I think Obama/Biden will kick Romney/Ryan's ass in Wisconsin

Ryan's home state-Wisconsin............Obama
Romney's home state-Massachusetts-Obama
Romney's home state-Utah..............-Romney

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. Damn, how many home states does this motherfucker have?

Michigan
California
Massachusetts
Utah

Where else?

[TroyD]

9. New Hampshire

That's where his summer home is.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. My Lord! I thought he did well just because MA is close to NH, but he actually has

another home? WOW!!!