Oh hey, remember that IBD/TIPP poll that has Bernie only down 4 nationally?

[Godhumor]

Well, the spread increased 8 points in just two and a half weeks.

Hillary - 50 (+7)
Bernie - 38 (-1)

Last poll before this was taken on 1/8 with Hillary at 43 and Bernie at 39. You know, the one everyone here flipped out over.

Internal to the poll, that is not good movement for Bernie. It looks like 1/8 was an outlier.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[FBaggins]

1. She was ahead by 20 points nationally at this point in 2008

And then came Iowa and New Hampshire.

We've reached the point where national polls start to be impacted by weekly challenges caused by actual voting.

[Godhumor]

2. My point is that the 1/8 poll is an outlier, even internal to IBD/TIPP

An 8 point correction in two and a half weeks is proof of that. In other words, never depend on one poll (He's within the MOE!) to tell the story.

[ram2008]

3. Yes it was an outlier

Bernie is down 10-15 nationally.

[FBaggins]

4. It was... but not by much

First of all, the two polls aren't that far apart. Hillary's shift is just outside the MoE and Bernie's is essentially unchanged (reinforcing his gains from their prior two polls at 33%). The story isn't substantially shifted either way... Hillary has fallen from a very solid lead nationally (and comfortably over 50%) to a still-clear lead, but one which is obviously vulnerable to the changes that almost always happen once the primary season ramps up.

[hrmjustin]

5. But Sanders is winning!

I heard it here!