IA-PPP: Clinton 48, Sanders 40, O'Malley 7

[KingFlorez]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/clinton-still-leads-iowa-omalley-backers-could-help-sanders.html

PPP's new Iowa Democratic poll, conducted in partnership with Progress Iowa, continues to find Hillary Clinton holding a modest lead in the state. She's at 48% to 40% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O'Malley. There's been little movement since our last poll two and a half weeks ago- Clinton's support is up 2 points, O'Malley's is down 1, and Sanders is steady.

One thing that will likely cause things to tighten up on Monday night is that O'Malley's supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. 57% of O'Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it's Clinton. We found something similar on our last poll, when O'Malley voters said they'd pick Sanders over Clinton 43/20. So just based on the reallocation of O'Malley voters, Sanders can expect to make up a couple points of his deficit.

One finding on this poll that's encouraging for Clinton is that 88% of her voters say they're firmly committed to supporting her, compared to 74% who say the same for Sanders. When you look at the race just among voters who have completely made up their minds, Clinton's lead expands to 17 points at 56/39. Sanders is up 55/31 with folks who say they may yet change sides.

[kennetha]

1. 8% is not a modest margin

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

This poll is more accurate in my opinion.

IA for the win!

[RoccoR5955]

31. Of course it is

Had it said that Sanders would win, you would consider it less accurate, no doubt.

[hrmjustin]

3. Hillary is going to win!

[MoonRiver]

27. Yes she is Justin!

[asuhornets]

53. I agree!! n/t

[still_one]

4. Lies lies lies, they should have only included folks less than 25, no one else counts

[pandr32]

5. Oh yes!

Proud to stand with her

[Fawke Em]

6. Oh, that polling company that works for her.

OK.

[bunnies]

7. and uses landlines.

Its totally accurate. Totally.

[CorkySt.Clair]

10. ...

[bunnies]

14. Oh goody. Another one.

Rude from the get-go. Typical.

[KingFlorez]

19. Also remember to click your heels three times if you believe polls are rigged

[RoccoR5955]

32. In case you didn't know

They ALWAYS rig polls. They are designed to get the answer whoever funds them wants. I can word a question in a way that will get you to vote for either candidate.

[riversedge]

39. Chuckle. Thanks.

[gyroscope]

21. Landlines?

What is this the 1980s? This poll is a joke.

[DaGimpster]

41. PPP polled me on the 26th

And asked me specifically if I was on a landline or cellphone (I was on cell).

Does this mean they threw away my vote?

[bunnies]

45. Interesting.

I wonder why they would use cell phones for some polls and not others. Doesnt make sense.

[DaGimpster]

47. I don't know, but...

They asked me specifically if I was on a cell phone as one of the last questions along with demographics. The number I have has always been a cell phone, and I've had it since Oct. 2001.

[bunnies]

50. I would think that by now all the pollsters would call cell phones.

Ive been repeatedly shocked by the methodologies of the polls (most of them) using landlines only. Im glad to hear theyre finally coming around though. Maybe someday they'll call me.

[KingFlorez]

8. Kindly sit down

Stop that conspiracy mess, it's nutty.

[demwing]

18. What conspiracy are you referring to?

Public Policy Polling surveyed 851 likely Democratic caucus voters on January 26th and 27th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.

Looks like an 80% of those polled used landlines.

[jillan]

9. We'll find out soon enough.

[lunamagica]

11. K&R. Go Hillary!

[book_worm]

12. A key point:

One finding on this poll that's encouraging for Clinton is that 88% of her voters say
they're firmly committed to supporting her, compared to 74% who say the same for
Sanders.

[Godhumor]

13. Yup, I posted about this yesterday

Last edited Fri Jan 29, 2016, 02:51 PM - Edit history (1)

The last three weeks of insurgency have solidified a lot of Hillary's support. Multiple polls are now coming in that say she is leading in the "strong support" column by significant margins.

[riversedge]

43. Yes--here is the tweet....

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 3h3 hours ago

88% of Clinton voters in IA say they're firmly committed to her, compared to 74% of Sanders' to him: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/clinton-still-leads-iowa-omalley-backers-could-help-sanders.html …

[NurseJackie]

15. This has got to be very discouraging news for Bernie's campaign and Bernie's fans.

In my opinion, and for all practical purposes, this thing will be over on Super Tuesday. Although on that day, it will still be mathematically "possible" for Bernie to win enough delegates to get the nomination (but distance between what's "possible" and what's "likely" is as wide as the Grand Canyon.)

It will be toward the middle-to-end of March before the maths become an insurmountable obstacle for Bernie. I'm very much looking forward to that day.



Note to Jury: This post expresses my opinions and expectations of how the the primary process will unfold. My observation regarding the disappointment that some may be feeling is a logical one that's not intended to insult or smear or attack any candidate, any candidate's campaign, or any candidate's supporters. The confidence I've expressed regarding my candidate's chances and likelihood of my candidate's winning the nomination are based on my opinions and personal optimism only. My personal optimism and enthusiasm is not "flame bait".

[bunnies]

24. Its not discouraging to me at all.

Consider:

Nearly two-thirds (65.7%) of 25- to 29-year-olds, 59.7% of 30- to 34-year-olds, and 53% of 18- to 24-year-olds live in wireless-only households

None of those people are included in this poll. Its therefore, pretty much, a joke.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/08/two-of-every-five-u-s-households-have-only-wireless-phones/

[blackspade]

29. Not particularly, no.

I'm actually rather encouraged given the sampling strategy.
It will be interesting for sure!

[Jarqui]

16. The age and sex demographics favor Hillary some

but not as badly as most polls.

The landlines ... that was a good pickup ... that would favor Hillary

So it's close.

I think there's a rule that if the candidate doesn't get 15% of the first vote, then their candidate is out. It actually happened to Hillary at an Iowa college in '08.

So the point someone above made about O'Malley's supporters strongly favoring Sanders is a very good one. It probably gives Bernie a margin of safety in a number of these votes.

(if someone from Iowa wants to weigh in and correct me if I'm wrong ...)

[uponit7771]

17. We need Sanders in the race

[Renew Deal]

20. For how long?

[uponit7771]

23. The congress argument keeps countering his pixy dust politics, I think long enough

... for people to realize that either he's full of shit or doesn't understand congress.

At that point congress will be the focus of dems after a dem president is elected...

In that case he'll serve more good than bad...

His constant minimizing of this historically gerrymandered congress isn't good for anything

[davidthegnome]

54. Pixie dust politics?

You mean like the whole thing about a single payer healthcare system, free community colleges.. that sort of thing? Not sure what part of the woods you're from, or whether or not you're a poor bastard like me, but we poor bastards could sure use some of that pixie dust politics. It's been a long damn time since any Presidential candidate has even been comfortable admitting that the poor even existed, let alone that something could be done to help us.

Take Maine for instance, where we suffer under the reign of Governor LePrick. (LePage, for those who don't know) where our infrastructure is a disaster, our economy is a joke that's no longer funny - and the poor are, frankly, screwed. Also, that little thing where he refused to pass medicaid expansion, let a whole lot of people fall through the cracks in the ACA.

This congress well deserves to be minimized, half of them ought to be charged with treason, others recalled for absolute ineptitude and general idiocy. Frankly, I'll take a whole damn ocean of Bernie's pixie dust over business as usual. Poor bastards like me want to finish college some day, maybe get health insurance, maybe have the same for our children some day.

So, lots of poor bastards like me are going to vote for Sanders. I think that, to most other politicians (not excluding Clinton, or even Obama) the poor are an inconvenient truth, to be swept under the rug and comfortably ignored whenever possible. Frankly, as a poor bastard, I'm entirely comfortable having someone like Sanders speak for me, and very eager to see what he can do in office.

[workinclasszero]

22. Great news

Go Hillary!

[Robbins]

25. PPP has no credabilty during primary

since they work for correct the record superpac.Funny how they are only poll which doesn't see bernie gaining

PPP mostly uses landlines which is great flaw in 2016.

biggest news Is 57% of O'Malley voters second choice is Bernie.That should worry clinton supporters.

[book_worm]

33. So they are flawed except for where they indicate some advantage for Bernie?

[bl968]

26. PPP biased

PPP has already shown they are perfectly willing in my personal opinion to fudge their polls for the highest bidder....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/15/1450214/-Did-PPP-poll-landline-phone-users-only-in-controversial-poll-for-pro-Hillary-PAC

Their polls have also shown a consistently higher support for Clinton than just about any other poll by other pollsters.

If Hillary had the support Hillary supporters and these laughable polls claim you would see it at turnout at her campaign events.

Lets look at the most recent Bernie Sanders and Bill Clinton events held on the same night in the same town. Bernie Sanders 1000+ attendees, Bill Clinton 325.

Clinton's highest turnout I can recall was 5,000 at her launch event. Bernie Sanders has drawn hundreds of thousands at his events. Hillary will be lucky if her total turnout at her campaign events during this election is more than 25-50k. Bernie Sanders has drawn that many at several of his events.

[book_worm]

34. Crowds don't mean anything when it comes down to votes

McGovern typically outdrew Nixon in 1972--Mondale got huge crowds in 1984.

[SunSeeker]

38. And remember the huge crowds for Ron Paul and Ross Perot.

They seem to tap the same people as s Sanders.

[Arkana]

28. That's gotta be overinflating O'Malley's support.

I've yet to see him pull more than 5% in any state race.

[NurseJackie]

30. It's pretty clear that this isn't going to be O'Malley's year. He's ...

... probably learned a lot, and he's definitely built up some name-recognition as he's been introduced to the nation. Even if he's not picked for the VP slot, he'll surely be a contender for the 2024 presidential election after Hillary's eight years!

If O'Malley is sworn-in as president in 2025, we'll be looking at 20 consecutive years of Democrats in the White House... and possibly 24 consecutive years!!

[Orrex]

35. This poll is obviously invalid because it favors Clinton

Everyone with a brain in their head knows that accurate polls only favor Sanders.

[d_legendary1]

36. 8%??? She was up by 30+% a few months ago!

[riversedge]

37. What matters is now. Clinton up +2 and Sanders stayed the same.

[mhatrw]

52. This poll was just 42% men and 17% Independent.

The last poll was 44% men and did not ask about party identification.

Both polls were 80% landline and 20% internet opt-in polls.

[d_legendary1]

56. Not very promising for someone who had a large lead

But if being +2 now is better than being +30 earlier then you can have my share.

[SunSeeker]

40. K & R

[Cheese Sandwich]

42. PPP is biased, wicked close to the Clinton campaign

[Sheepshank]

44. I'm not surprised at the numbers. She is working hard and taking nothing for granted.

I know people on the ground there, and they are enthused and knowledgeable and polite lol

[hueymahl]

46. It shows a close race

Personally, I am waiting for the Iowa Poll (Des Moines Register/Ann Seltzer) which drops Saturday. That poll historically has been the most accurate.

[iandhr]

48. Looks like O'Malley supporters might play a key role.

[mhatrw]

49. Even in this poll, Sanders leads Clinton among Independents 62% to 23%

Clinton has a 37% unfavorable rating among Independents to Sanders' 11%.

[markbark]

51. The only poll that matters

is happening Monday morning

[Gamecock Lefty]

55. 8 Points?

If Bernie was up by 8 points he would be SURGING!!!