To everyone touting the wisdom of 538, just remember this:

[ram2008]

The odds they gave in April of last year of who was going to be the nominee:
?w=575

?w=575

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/watch-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-ny1-edition/

Bernie at 0%. Whoops.

Bonus round from this August on Trump from their article titled: "Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination": "Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so."

So what did they get right this cycle?

[Kalidurga]

1. Nate is walking back his Iowa prediction.

I think he actually believes Bernie is going to win even if his number crunching makes him think it's more likely Hillary will win. In his heart he knows that Bernie has a great chance of winning.

[Iggy Knorr]

2. how dare you blaspheme st 538???!??!?

[ChisolmTrailDem]

3. They got nothing right, that's what. nt

[ram2008]

4. This one still makes me laugh

I've always said Jeb was a loser from the beginning, even before Trump ran. The fact that they had him at 25% all the way from April through September gives me a chuckle.

?w=575

[ChisolmTrailDem]

5. 538 can be disregarded. They are a non-factor. nt

[kenfrequed]

6. I blame Enten most of all

Reading his articles his number juggling always seems the weakest and he seems to rely heavily on insider conventional wisdom.

[draa]

7. Silver is usually ok but even he admitted 538 missed Trump.

If he couldn't see that train wreck coming he should be used with caution. Hell, I predicted Trump the day he entered the race. He's the perfect caricature of the political system in general so it was obvious.

[ypsfonos]

9. That would be 0%

Nate not turning Lead into Silver here...