Guessing the odds (in which I practice building tables with [div]).

[Donald Ian Rankin]

A while ago, DUer Make7 showed me how to use div to present proper tables on DU. I want to practice this, so here, mostly for my own benefit, are tables showing my guesses as to the rough likelihood of the outcomes of the two primaries and the general election.

WARNING: most of the numbers were essentially plucked out of the air to have something to put in the tables; the only one with any scholarship or authority behind it is the Democratic primary one, which is a small rational approximation to the numbers 538 were throwing around. In particular, predictions for the Republican primary, and a Trump/Sanders matchup would be so unprecedented that it's hard to make even a vaguely informed guess about the winner (Bloomberg?)

Democratic nominee:
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"]
[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Clinton
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]5/6

[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Sanders
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6



Republican nominee:
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"]
[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"] Trump
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]3/6

[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Cruz
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]2/6

[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Rubio
[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6




Odds on Democrat winning matchup
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"]
[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]7/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]?5/10?

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]5/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]2/10

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]3/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]1/10



Chance of being the next president:
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"]
[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]170/360
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/2ish

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]66/360
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/5ish

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]60/360
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/6ish

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]44/360
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/8ish

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]20/360
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/20 ish

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. FWIW, the odds given at British and Irish bookmakers

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Putting them in your form ("1/6" meaning "there is a 1 in 6 chance of this happening&quot , and finding a rough average and allowing for the bookies' profit, I think they're saying:

Clinton 1/2
Trump 1/5
Rubio 1/7
Sanders 1/9
Cruz 1/20

[Donald Ian Rankin]

3. I'm amazed I was even as close as I was.

I'm not sure how one gets from "The bookmakers are offering odds of X" to "The bookmakers think the chance of this happening is f(X)", though - I suspect it depends at least partially on how likely they think other people think something is.

[ljm2002]

2. Looks good, table-wise. :-) n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Best to look at predictwise:

Best to look at predictwise:

http://predictwise.com/


and the actual gaming sites;


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate


Hillary is 1/5 to win the nomination and 1/1.2 to win it all...

[Donald Ian Rankin]

5. The problem with bookmakers is the jump from what they compute to what they offer.

If they actually believed that there were 5 chances in 6 that she'd win then they wouldn't offer 1-5 odds on her doing so.

I'm sure they're pretty damn good at computing how likely an event is, but I'm not sure how they go from probability of event to odds of bet offered, and hence how to reverse engineer that.

Predictwise looks very useful, though - thanks for bringing that to my attention. They think I'm overestimating Cruz's chances, and underestimating Rubio's, which I don't find reassuring.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I might not explain this well..

Clinton
5/6


Sanders
1/6

In your example if 1,000 gamblers took Clinton and 1,000 gamblers took Sanders and Clinton loses the house get killed. That's why Clinton's numbers have to be closer to the opposite of Sanders to make sense.

Something like what we see:

Clinton 1/5
Sanders 4/1

[Make7]

7. The last step for [div] tables is to scrunch all the [div] elements together...

... in order to prevent the double-spacing. It should end up looking like this:

Democratic nominee:

[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Clinton

[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]5/6[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Sanders[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6

Republican nominee:

[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"] Trump[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]3/6[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Cruz[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]2/6[div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Rubio[div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6

Odds on Democrat winning matchup

[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"] [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]7/10[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]?5/10?[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]5/10[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]2/10[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]3/10[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]1/10

Chance of being the next president:

[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]170/360 [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/2ish [div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]66/360 [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/5ish [div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]60/360 [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/6ish [div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]44/360 [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/8ish [div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]20/360 [div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/20 ish

From this code:

[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Clinton[/div][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]5/6[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Sanders[/div][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6[/div][/div][/div]

Republican nominee:
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"] Trump[/div][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]3/6[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Cruz[/div][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]2/6[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row; padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]Rubio[/div][div style="display:table-cell; padding:inherit;"]1/6[/div][/div][/div]

Odds on Democrat winning matchup
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"] [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]7/10[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]?5/10?[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]5/10[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]2/10[/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]3/10[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]1/10[/div][/div][/div]

Chance of being the next president:
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]170/360 [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/2ish [/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]66/360 [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/5ish [/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]60/360 [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/6ish [/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]44/360 [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/8ish [/div][/div][div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders[/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]20/360 [/div][div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]=1/20 ish[/div][/div][/div]

It looks like more work than it is. You can use search and replace to remove the spaces used for indenting at the beginning of the lines, and then just start at the end of each table and hit the HOME key and BACKSPACE key alternately until the start of that table.

I found this thread while searching for something else and thought I'd comment - even though the thread is ancient history.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

8. My eyes! My poor, bleeding eyes!

Thanks for the tip, though.