A View of Iowa: Three Days Out

[Fawke Em]

[daleanime]

1. Please, please, please.....

We need to start moving forward.

[Fawke Em]

5. But, but, you see: Clinton fans don't find it necesary to either show up to see

her or move their finger twice to click a vote for her online, but they'll be out to vote!

[ybbor]

14. No, and her crowds are meant to be small...

She likes to refer to them as intimate.

Looks more like empty to met

[loyalsister]

21. I think she must perform well in that kind of gathering

A common denomenoter among friends who supporter her is that they have been part of a small group audience. She does not respond well to criticism or being caught off guard, and it is inevitable when a candidate speaks in front of larger groups.

[StevieM]

16. Well that is what happened in New Hampshire in 2008. Clinton's crowds were very small.

Joe and Mika went to an event of hers at the end of the race and said they left feeling sorry for her.

Ultimately, as we know, she won that state.

Obama had much bigger crowds than Clinton both in states that he won and in states that he lost.

Iowa is a dead heat and I expect a very close race on caucus night.

[SheenaR]

2. Those must just be

the kids he bussed in

[Fawke Em]

6. Some of those "kids" are older than me!

[jillan]

10. Ya and I bet a bunch of them are wearing BUTTONS! From Nevada!

[SheenaR]

11. Donated

by the good folks of AARP

[jillan]

12. And shipped from Nevada

with photoshopped mailers from the League of Conservation Voters.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. Waiting to see if a Hillary crowd get's clone brushed.

[MoonchildCA]

3. Gives me hope.

[senz]

4. The people's choice

and that's what it's all about: the people.

[FloridaBlues]

7. That's ok I'll take her being up in last 3 polls out within 2 days

[Fawke Em]

9. It's OK. I realize the polls don't really poll new voters. eom

[litlbilly]

15. Yeah PPP and gravis, real solid polls:)

[Punkingal]

8. If they vote, it's in the bag!

[Ed Suspicious]

13. They dared us to come out. We accepted. Now it's on.

[oberliner]

17. Reminds me of Kerry and Dean

Similar numbers leading up to Iowa in 2004.

[karynnj]

19. No similarity in the pattern at all

Clinton was ahead in Iowa by huge margins for over a year - in the infrequent polls done. From May when he entered the race through the summer, she was still ahead. Bernie's numbers have slowly but surely increased. Only in the last few months have there been some polls with Bernie ahead -- and some with Hillary ahead.

In 2004, Dean and Gephardt were for the last half of 2003 competing for Iowa. A series of competing negative ads destroyed both of them. Kerry, who loaned himself money in December, when the media considered him dead and when on the national level he polled at Sharpton's level, knew he was gaining traction on the ground in Iowa as he met Iowans one to one. The Des Moines register that year had a tracking poll and his increase was very steady through December and January. Only a week or so before the caucus did he start to poll ahead. There was one seminal event the weekend before Iowa that could well have made the difference between a very close win and the very significant lead he had was that his team got a call in Oregon and the marine he saved in Vietnam - then a retired policeman wanted to help and whoever got the call knew to call headquarters and he surprised Kerry at a previously scheduled event.

Not to mention, Kerry's crowds were as energetic and as big as Dean's in the last few weeks of the campaign. Sanders is a far better campaigner than Dean -- and any number of Burlingtonians have told me that -- and Kerry, the media withstanding, is a better retail politics campaigner than HRC,

One advantage of Clinton's she has more party, media and big money support than anyone -- in 2004, Kerry had fewer superdelegates than Dean pre Iowa, was basically considered unlikely by the media that gave him very little coverage and he had less money than Dean for Iowa.

[oberliner]

22. The numbers are exactly the same

Dean was drawing 3x the size of Kerry's crowd in the week leading up to Iowa.

[karynnj]

23. Not what I was told by people there and not what was in the videos available

That was the case in the fall, but by January Kerry's crowds were as big or bigger than Dean's. There used to be a link to their speeches at the big Iowa Harkin BBQ -- Dean hired several buses - but they were not full. Kerry actually did better even by that point.

HRC's lack of crowds is happening while she has every possible advantage. Those advantages may cancel out Bernie's enthusiastic crowds.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. Mostly media.