Dance around the campfire my Clinton Friends

[angrychair]

For the hang-over of a stark reality starts in the morning.

Your candidate won by .35% to a person down 60 pts just 5 months ago.

Exit polls paint a harsh reality you must face.

You lost the youth vote (17-29) by 70%

You lost the 30-44 vote by 21%

You lost 'cares about people like me' by 52%

You lost 'honest and trustworthy' by 73%

This is from Iowa but are reflecting national polls on these questions.

Clinton will not win a GE with this level of disparity.

These numbers spell failure.

The best way to ensure a Democrat in the WH is to elect Bernie Sanders.

Just saying.

Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/iowa/exit/

[stonecutter357]

1. Dance around the campfire

[Starry Messenger]

2. She won a state he had to win.

[bec]

15. Not sure what you mean

He did not have to win this state. He wasn't even supposed to get as close as he did. That is the real story. Oh and by the way, winning your delegates by a coin toss is not winning. Just saying.

[pnwmom]

25. If he had won by virtue of a coin toss you'd be singing the praises of coin-tossing.

Before the caucus, I told everyone who would listen that caucuses were a terrible, unrepresentative, non-inclusive, and very messy way to pick delegates. (I know because my state has them.)

No one was worried because everyone seemed to think the caucus set-up advantaged Bernie.

Now they know. Caucuses stink, for many reasons. Every state should have a primary instead.

[RoccoR5955]

18. There are still votes to count

As of 7 AM EST, they have yet to count 12 districts. This could end up backfiring on her if she does not take in all of these. It could end up a dead tie, or even a loss.

[kracer20]

33. How can there still be uncounted districts?

It isn't like there are still people huddle in a gym somewhere recounting. That part was over and done with long ago.

After that the numbers just need to be phoned in. I haven't heard how or why there could be a delay.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

47. Apparently, there are allegations of voter fraud holding up official results... this could get interesting.

[in_cog_ni_to]

20. He didn't have to win Iowa. 2008 HRH came in THIRD in Iowa. Was it a required win for her? And

2008 NH Primary, she won by ONLY 3 points!

Last NH poll I saw Bernie was +31! He going to kick her ass in NH and TIED her in Iowa. Ms. Inevitable isn't so inevitable anymore.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[pnwmom]

26. In the 2008 primary, Hillary's overall national tally was within 1/2 percent of Obama's.

Even though she came in third in Iowa. And even though Obama did so well in the South and among minority voters.

This time around, Hillary is much stronger among both those groups than Bernie is. She's in good shape. Things will get much easier for her once she gets out of rural heavily white states.

[KingCharlemagne]

68. Stick a fork in her. She's done - nt

[RiverLover]

21. They split the delegates.

Not a win.

[rdking647]

40. since 1972 ...

only 3 non incumbents who won iowa ended up winning the general......

in 1992 clinton finished 3rd
in 1976 carter fininshed second
in 1980 bush won iowa
in 1988 dole won iowa

[riversedge]

3. What a petty post.

bye.

[azurnoir]

11. worried? I would be because what he posted is true

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

48. Sometimes the truth hurts.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[riversedge]

63. I am not worried. Hillary won and has the mojo. Sanders goes limping to the east coast.

[azurnoir]

64. get back to me after New Hampshire

[riversedge]

71. Happy to make you laugh. Too many grouches today on this board.

[KingCharlemagne]

70. You crack me up. "Limping" Bwa ha ha! Last night, Sanders slew the

dragon. They'll be singing about this round the campfires 1000 years from now.

[sorechasm]

4. Whatever the spin. Bernie's trend lines are undeniable. Up. Up and Up.

To stop the growing trend, Clinton's campaign method seems to be making speeches of delusional distraction. How is her speech last night going to help her persuade those who consider her untrustworthy?

[Blue_Adept]

5. so the bernie youth vote will go to Cruz or Trump instead?

Or they'll just sit at home?

Doesn't say much for them.

[Katashi_itto]

9. Oh well. Start thinking an R president then.

[Ed Suspicious]

12. Best way to convince young people to remain active in electoral politics? Scold them. Tell them

they're inadequate.

[dsc]

16. aren't you implicitly doing the same to the old

or is that OK because it is OK to dis old people.

[A Simple Game]

23. People are no longer satisfied with voting against something, they need something to vote for. n/t

[saturnsring]

35. there's this bullshit excuse again. vote for supreme court picks if nothing else or do you enjoy

having your rights taken away by 5-4. this bullshit is so short-sighted and childish.

[shawn703]

38. Sanders would put better justices than Clinton would on the bench

At least they wouldn't be so pro-business.

[Skittles]

44. both Clinton and Sanders would be better than any crazy republican

[A Simple Game]

39. Let the Democrats in the Senate do their jobs and block any of the scumbags a Republican may

nominate. I will vote for the best candidate available, that is the only way the best candidate wins, if you vote for them.

[vi5]

58. BINGO!

Why are none of us talking about the Senate and why aren't we working just as hard on that, which should be our fail safe?

Oh wait because most of the Senate Dems are playing the Washington Generals game as well.

[jeff47]

74. That's still voting against the Republican.

We've been bleeding massive numbers of voters with this strategy. We're down to 30% of the electorate. Continuing to spout it is not going to reverse that trend.

[saturnsring]

83. it's still a dumbfuck of a reason not to vote

childish and whiny and It'll give you the government you deserve unfortunately you fuck everyone else relying on you to vote

[jeff47]

84. I'm sure your strategy of hurling insults will totally reverse that.

Again, you need to give voters something to vote for. You need to give them a better future. "Protect the SCOTUS!!!" does not do that. It maintains the status-quo, and the status-quo is utterly failing all but the well-off.

You can hurl insults at the voters who we are failing, or we could try to help them. Which one is going to get more votes?

[sulphurdunn]

46. The youth vote

has no loyalty to political parties. They can as easily stay home as vote for a candidate they don't like. Whatever that says about them, it says much less about the leadership of the Democratic Party.

[angrychair]

82. Not the point

It goes to the "electibility" Clinton supporters talk about. It goes to understanding your electorate and not dictating to them what you are "willing" to try for or compromise on.

On understanding voters and willing to at least fight for what they believe in and not what some poll or focus group says would be acceptable, Sanders is more electable.

[left-of-center2012]

6. Clinton family will get extremely dirty in New Hampshire

They got really bruised and damaged by the tie vote in Iowa.

[Ed Suspicious]

13. I am convinced it only helps Bernie when they get all petulant.

[Helen Borg]

14. No question about that....

But we are ready.

[BigGLiberal]

7. Sorry, your candidate lost.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

36. Yep. by 6 coin flips.

She won't get lucky enough to win all 6 flips every time.

[TBF]

49. When I read "coin toss" this morning

I thought it was metaphorical phrasing. Six coin tosses? You've got to be kidding me.

I have been a precinct head. You count signatures. You don't toss a coin. WTF?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

52. There are links to newspaper articles floating around.

Apparently in six precincts, there were either ties or disputes that ended up being unsolvable, and they resorted to coin tosses, and Hillary's folks won all six of the flips.

[pugetres]

8. He only hits the mark half of the time

when considering the demographics you shared.

But, that appears to be enough to get my husband's and my vote.

[betsuni]

10. Agon -- "The Contest" -- here is some dancing.

[RoccoR5955]

17. There are still 12 districts to count

AFAIC, it ain't over until it's over, and with more votes to count this morning, it ain't over.

[pnwmom]

28. It is over. If Bernie gets every single vote left, it still won't fit the gap

between the rest of his votes and Hillary's.

[Empowerer]

19. Excellent analysis - because Iowa is a microcosm of the nation

Oh, wait a minute . . .

Perhaps to be accurate, you should say (assuming your numbers are correct):

"You lost the youth vote in IOWA . . you lost the 30-44 vote in IOWA, etc."

[A Simple Game]

29. Yes Iowa is just like Bernie, white and Christian... Oh, wait a minute

perhaps to be accurate, that describes Hillary! The white christian candidate could only tie in the white christian state to a non-christian.

My, my, it looks like this was Hillary's state and she didn't win it.

[Empowerer]

37. I said it's not a microcosm of America. I didn't say it was a microcosm of Bernie

My point had nothing to do with the race or religion of the candidates. My point is that Iowa is not a diverse state and is not an accurate reflection of the mood or opinions of the rest of the country.

I have no doubt that if we had a 95% black state, the first primary would never be conducted there and, even if it were, no one would believe that the results prove anything about the way the entire country views an election.

But, of course, for many people, white people are "people" while everyone else is identified with a qualifier.

[A Simple Game]

67. And I agreed with you, Iowa is not representative of America, it is represetative of Hillary.

Everything pointed to her getting a decisive win and she couldn't.

[retrowire]

22. and "cares about people like me" is the big one. nt

[Art_from_Ark]

50. Well, I know that's NOT Hillary

I saw her in action in Arkansas. She didn't like to mingle with the hoi polloi. Hell, she even worked as a corporate lawyer to fight against the little people.

[joshcryer]

24. I doubted the youth vote and I was wrong.

My only hope is that they can keep it up and push this thing hard. Because it really is about that voting bloc. It really is.

[pnwmom]

30. Their support for Bernie was very high but they didn't show up in the numbers that

were hoped for, or that Obama got.

[joshcryer]

45. But at least they showed up.

I admit I doubted earlier tonight (I self-deleted the post because people were negging my cynical prediction just as things were looking good, I didn't need replies every 20 minutes in my inbox saying I was wrong; I know I was wrong and I'm glad I was wrong).

[Gothmog]

27. According to the Cook Report, Sanders needed to win 70% of the Iowa delegates to be competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

The Cook Report has some good analysis

After New Hampshire, Sanders is headed to states that have less than 90+% white voting populations and Sanders is not appealing to African American or Hispanic voters. Super Tuesday will be a long day

[Lucinda]

73. Thank you for the link.

I'm off to read the rest...

[tk2kewl]

31. But that must mean she handily carried...

The retirees who expect politicians to be heartless liars.

Aka "the get off my lawn" vote

[NightWatcher]

32. Baseball hasn't started and you've hit the first home run of the season

For Hillary to see it any other way than that is delusional.

[Adrahil]

34. Thanks! Have a s'more!

It was a narrow victory, but a victory none-the-less.

If the Bernie folks can parlay this enthusiams into, I dunno, taking back the HOUSE, and getting soemdemocratic socialists elected in there, maybe Bernie's campaign would acually be able to have a real long-term impact. Promises don't matter much unless you can actually get the votes to deliver on them.

[Red Knight]

43. What makes you think Republicans will ever work with Hillary?

It's political suicide for them.

She'll be reduced to executive actions mostly.

It will take a political revolution--and the will to really change things.

For Hillary--it will be business as usual.

[Adrahil]

59. I think Sanders would have trouble getting the support of some Democrats!

I think unless there is a fundamental alternation to the make-up of Congress, incremental change is the best model. Assuming we can make progress in taking seats in Congress, it will be some time before there is a big enough coalition to support the kind of large scale programs Sanders is proposing. Just one man's opinion, of course.

[jeff47]

75. As will Clinton.

Or did you forget who actually blocked things like a public option in the ACA?

[Adrahil]

77. I don't completely disagree....

Which is why I've been giving this forum a miss mostly. I think the vitriol is all out of proportion to the situation. Having said that, I prefer Hillary's political style. But that's a matter of personal preference.

[angrychair]

76. "Incremental changes"?

You mean the "incremental changes" provided by DWS and the DNC? They have been doing a great job:

"Since 2008, the party has lost 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats, more than 900 state legislative seats, 30 state legislative chambers and 12 governorships."

I think we have had enough of the their "incremental changes" to last a lifetime.

Source: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/democrats-planning-multi-year-strategy-to-recapture-seats-in-congress/

[Adrahil]

78. I do not support DWS.

In fact, I just told a DNC fundraiser that I will not donate to the DNC as long as she is the chair.

[angrychair]

80. I appreciate that

But if your candidate gets elected you can count her former national co-chair being there another 4 years....just saying

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

41. I see Martin O'Malley is playing Nader this season.

He snagged just enough of the vote to prevent either candidate winning by 50%+1.

Thanks, Martin. You really showed us that you're a viable candidate last night!

[Uponthegears]

42. Oh silly angry

Don't you know Bernie's supporters are all misogynistic young white male hate-bots?



https://theintercept.com/2016/01/31/the-bernie-bros-narrative-a-cheap-false-campaign-tactic-masquerading-as-journalism-and-social-activism/


Sanders' support is deep and wide and Hillary knows it.

You saw it last night, especially when you looked at the individual county results. You heard it last night when Hillary snuck into her own Iowa rally and stood up and "evolved" into an advocate for universal health care.

Thanks for the post.

[alcibiades_mystery]

51. Winners grind - that's what they do

Grind out the tough ones.

Grind out the easy ones.

Grind. Grind. Grind.

Don 't be a sore loser.

[artyteacher]

53. first stage of grief is denial eom

[MrMickeysMom]

54. You're just saying... and I'm just kicking...

This is the way we all win.

[Gamecock Lefty]

56. What?

We lost this block of votes, we lost that block of votes. Can’t win GE, can’t win GE, can’t win GE.

Let’s all say together - HILLARY WON IOWA.

All those blocks of votes we lost you’d think there’s nobody left to vote for Hillary and yet Grandpa Bernie still couldn’t pull out a win.

First Bernie FAIL of 2016. Hope you enjoyed your vampire weekend.

[onecaliberal]

60. 50% to 50% for the unelectable candidate. What does that say about your candidate.

[Stuckinthebush]

57. Oh, my

It begins. The anger and dismay.

Math has been a tough subject for some Sanders supporters. I see it still is. Clinton has the math for both the primary and GE on her side.

[mariawr]

61. This right here.....

"Won by .35 to a person down 60 pts just 5 months ago. "

Keep dragging Hillary to the left ...she's going to be all out populist progressive to get out of the primary

[joeybee12]

62. yes she will

Amazing how you can't accept a loss

[NBachers]

65. "Maybe my clever gloating sarcasm will win the Clinton supporters over to MY side."

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

66. God is on Clinton's side. Stand aside, peons, for the inevitable one.

Nobody wins six coin tosses in a row without divine intervention.

She got God's endorsement.

[Avalux]

72. Or a billionaire in her pantsuit pocket. n/t

[Sunlei]

69. campfire dances are dangerous. Once I saw my camp dancer friend slip & fall on his back in the fire

Ruined that camping trip for the rest of us. We had to take him to the emergency room to treat the burns on his back.

I don't think a divided party is a good thing at all, no matter what 'side' you're on.

[JonathanRackham]

79. Hillary Camp Has a Secret Weapon

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/sticker-kid-clinton-iowa-rally-drake-student-article-1.2517086

and don't say he was wearing Captain Trump underwear either.

[Matariki]

81. It's indicative of how NERVOUS Clinton's supporters actually were

That they are doing an ecstatic happy dance and insisting that three tenths of a percent (and 6 coin tosses) is a WIN for Clinton.

For all their bluster and confident citing of polls going into Iowa, this reaction is very telling.