It could have been the last inning. Now it is just the first

[Tom Rinaldo]

Last edited Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:41 PM - Edit history (1)

Iowa once could have put this race safely away for Hillary. That is how it was supposed to be. That is how it was assumed it would be just a couple of months ago. Hillary never needed to defeat Bernie by thirty or more points, the way polls were showing six months ago, in order to shut down any semblance of a real fight on her hands. Double digits of any sort would easily have sufficed.

Imagine if the final results from Iowa were Hillary Clinton 58%, Bernie Sanders 42%. Not very long ago that would have been called a very respectable showing for Sanders, an unexpectedly strong showing by Sanders in fact. Hillary wold have been very gracious toward Bernie. Bernie would have been very proud of what his movement had accomplished to put the real issues in America front and center in the political debate. Bernie would have continued his campaign, focusing on the issues that mattered, just like Martin O'Malley did up until last night - fully knowing that he almost certainly couldn't win. Everyone would have known that then, and Hillary Clinton would have legitimately been our presumptive nominee TODAY.

Now the Clinton camp is forced to argue that it really is late in the game for Sanders, that he is almost out of States where he can win in. Now they must argue that if Sanders can't win Iowa, where besides New Hampshire can he win? The are a couple of glaring problems with that argument however. Let's start at the beginning. Bernie actually showed that he could win Iowa, whether or not Hillary ended up inching ahead in the closest caucus in Iowa Democratic history. It LITERALLY was a toss up. This wasn't a general election, where one candidate gets to move into the Governor's office based on a fraction of a percentage of the votes, while the other one goes home to lick their wounds and ponder "what if?" Nothing ended with the Iowa vote, both Hillary and Bernie move on from there, splitting up the delegates. Nothing got settled. The race is very much still on. Instead of us now being at the unofficial end of the nominating contest, we now are smack dab where it says we are on the calendar - the start. There are 50 States and a number of territories etc that get to weigh in on who becomes the Democratic nominee for President. Just one has now voted - inconclusively.

To say that the road ahead looks rough for Bernie now is to miss the obvious. The road ahead has always looked rough for Bernie. According to polls it sure as hell looked rough for Bernie a couple of months ago in Iowa too. People changed their minds in Iowa when the time came to actually pay attention to the race in that state, when people there actually started looking closely at all of the candidates. When they did they started to shift their preferences. For all the talk about how unusually White Iowa is relative to the overall Democratic constituency, people again overlook the obvious. White people aren't the only ones capable of changing their minds. In the only state where a full contest has now been completed the evidence shows that vast numbers of people changed their minds - moving their initial support from Clinton to Sanders. I suspect a similar shift in voter preferences took place within Iowa's small African America community as well. I would be interested in seeing data on that.

Iowa was a good State for Sanders to launch his campaign in, but the reasons why have less to do with demographics than with size. Iowa is a classic retail politics State, which means Sanders was able to bypass a major media blockade of him and go directly over their heads to the voters themselves - speaking to over 70,000 Iowans personally - a number comparable to a large percentage of the Iowans who showed up at the caucuses last nigh. The Sanders surge in Iowa breached the cone of silence the establishment tried to erect around him. Now it lies shattered. When the 2016 primary season began in earnest conventional wisdom always held that Hillary Clinton would hold a strong fund raising advantage over Bernie Sanders. But in a small retail politics state like Iowa Bernie didn't need as much money as he would have in some place like Florida in order to build momentum and a buzz. That in turn helped light a fire under a huge micro donor base, which fundamentally changes everything. Bernie raised 20 million last month in small donations, and he can keep going back to that well virtually indefinitely.

Now the money in pouring in for Sanders. Now there are additional one on one debates between Clinton and Sanders pending, that the public will actually be tuning into. Now the Democratic Race for President is finally in the glare of a bright national spotlight that once was reserved for Republicans - and Bernie is appearing everywhere. Yes Sanders has ground to make up in upcoming States, but the same once was true of Iowa. Iowa was supposed to be Bernie's last real gasp, but it turns out it was more like a breath of fresh air.

[TwilightGardener]

1. MSM will have to treat Bernie like a contender instead of a novelty act to

be brushed aside when the queen is ready to ascend the throne. Not sure they will, but he earned it now.

[Dustlawyer]

28. No, they will keep doing what they have been doing which is what Andrea Mitchell just did.

She put on a Clinton surrogate who talked about Hillary's big win, gaining in NH (yea right) and how Bernie has no chance anywhere else. There was no rebuttal and then MSNBC went to talk about Cruz.

[TwilightGardener]

29. Yeah...it is discouraging.

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. They keep doing it....

...but this year it has kept failing them. They don't have the control that they used to anymore. The pattern is becoming comical: "Yes we were slow to recognize how much support there was out there for Sanders before, but now we are paying finally attention and he still can't win". Wait one week ad then repeat.

[Dustlawyer]

32. In trying to wrest control of our government away from the corporations/Plutocrats,

we knew it wouldn't be easy. We have to fight the MSM propaganda, the DNC, and all of that corporate money to regain our Representative Democracy. We are on the right side of this and just have to get the message out to as many as we can. The key will be the black and Hispanic vote.

As each state's Primary approaches and regular folks start to pay attention to the race we need to be there to introduce them to Bernie and what he/we are fighting for. If we can do this Bernie still wins. Every time they attack Bernie we need to donate more. It will get them to be more selective and judicious with the crap they fling. Her surrogates will end up pissing us off more, causing us to work that much harder. We are fighting a political revolution, no one said it would be easy. Bernie just proved to a lot of people that he can win if he can get the message out!

[amborin]

2. The presumed front-runner no longer is; the race is wide open; it wasn't supposed to be like this

[tblue37]

3. Excellent. K&R. Your penultimate paragraph is the reason why I don't agree with people who

think Iowa and NH should lose their important first in the nation slots:

Iowa was a good State for Sanders to lunch his campaign in, but the reasons why have less to do with demographics than with size. Iowa is a classic retail politics State, which means Sanders was able to bypass a major media blockade of him and go directly over their heads to the voters themselves - speaking to over 70,000 Iowans personally - a number comparable to a large percentage of the Iowans who showed up at the caucuses last nigh. The Sanders surge in Iowa breached the cone of silence the establishment tried to erect around him. Now it lies shattered. When the 2016 primary season began in earnest conventional wisdom always held that Hillary Clinton would hold a strong fund raising advantage over Bernie Sanders. But in a small retail politics state like Iowa Bernie didn't need as much money as he would have in some place like Florida in order to build momentum and a buzz. That in turn helped light a fire under a huge micro donor base, which fundamentally changes everything. Bernie raised 20 million last month in small donations, and he can keep going back to that well virtually indefinitely.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. I think the District of Columbia should be fit into the front end also

It too can fought on a retail politics level also even though major media is expensive, because it is so compact. That would give African Americans an important early voice in the process.

[tblue37]

5. Good idea. nt

[bread_and_roses]

7. Very important point

The weight of white white white Iowa and NH in the early going is part of the "backpack" of white privilege that most of us white people never think of. I admit I had not thought of it - and I've been a part of various anti-racism groups since I don't even remember when. I knew of course that these were largely white states - I just never correlated it .... part of that "invisible privilege" that is so hard for us to recognize. I feel pretty ashamed of myself that it never occurred to me.

[daleanime]

18. That is a very nice idea....

[Flying Squirrel]

6. "Iowa was a good State for Sanders to lunch his campaign in"...

Not such a good state for Hillary to lunch her campaign in, however. Bernie ended up eating Hillary's lunch!

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Ha, that's funny! From time to time I've thought of startng a collection of amusing typos...

I make a lot myself like this one that spell check doesn't catch because, how can it tell I meant launch and not lunch? I have a wireless keyboard that I have to replace because it tends to drop letters when I type. But this one could be a keeper (though I'm about to edit the OP to eliminate it).

[malthaussen]

8. Can he keep up the pace?

Time will have to tell on that one. The Sanders organization was able to overcome some serious deficiencies to tie Mrs Clinton. It took a lot of work. Can his organization keep putting up that effort? That is the question. And if we answer it in the affirmative, can they also find that last little bit to overcome Mrs Clinton fully? A really strong second place is ultimately no better than second by a mile. What has been demonstrated, as I see it, is that the advantages Mr Sanders was believed to have are demonstrably real. His organization needs to keep those, and gather in other advantages (minority voters, e.g.), and if that happens, then Mrs Clinton is toast. That said, they aren't there yet, and there is a long way to go to make it happen.

-- Mal

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Thoughtful post - fair question

So far with, as they say, only early returns in - initial indicators are Yes. Every hurdle that the Sanders campaign clears increases his overall credibility, which in turns increases his perceived viability, which in turn increases his support, and that is called a virtuous circle.

I will note though that coming in a close second being the same as losing by a mile only is true of a final election. In 2008 for example close seconds were essential for both Obama and Clinton as they fought to win the needed majority of delegates in the overall contest.

And then there is the matter of a movement. This is more than just an election to install one man as President, it is also a movement for social change with profound implications that extend well beyond November. It can and will I believe keep building beyond the Democratic Convention.

[malthaussen]

16. I'm lousy at human causes...

... so I tend not to pronounce on them. Momentum, enthusiasm, and other intangibles are things I do poorly at reckoning. So I try to look at things from the standpoint of patterns and verifiable statistics.

If it came down to a contested convention, though, then wouldn't one expect the candidate with the most political savvy and pull to win? That's a situation where being outside the establishment might hurt Mr Sanders, and is likely if he makes strong seconds or splits delegates with Mrs Clinton. I'm assuming, for the nonce, that the Democrats will nominate the candidate who wins a clear victory, if such a candidate emerges. Though precipitating a constitutional crisis is not out of the question. My worries about Mr Sanders fall not into questions of "electability," or whether he can deliver on his promises, as any election constitutes buying a pig in a poke. I think he's probably the most popular individual in either party, but popularity is not, ultimately, the only factor in getting the nomination. I presume he and his organization are considering these factors, I await with interest seeing how they will proceed.

I also wonder about the physical pace of campaigning. Mr Sanders will have to continue to follow a very gruelling pace of personal appearances, and he is not a young man. And Mrs Clinton may be forced to match this, and she is no spring chicken herself (I speak as one who is 60 years old myself, so any ageism is earned, by gum!). It does nobody any good if our candidates succumb to exhaustion in search of the nomination.

-- Mal

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. I'm in my mid 60's now myself

One thing I've noticed is that I don't have the energy that I used to have to do thinks that don't engage my passion. Conversely though, I never feel as young and alive as I do when my passion is engaged. Bernie honestly looks to be having the time of his life -that might actually help him shed some years rather than pile them on.

I suspect this race is going to break strongly one way or another before it is over, and the momentum will become clear. If that breaks toward Bernie a whole lot of people inside the Democratic Party "machine" at every level will have second thoughts about positioning themselves against him.

[malthaussen]

25. A good point about passion.

Mrs Clinton, OTOH, doesn't seem to be having much fun at all.

-- Mal

[saidsimplesimon]

9. Excellent, well said, thank you, Tom

K&R

[NoMoreRepugs]

10. no matter who you support shining a brighter light on Dem ideas

is a good thing I think

[Uncle Joe]

11. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Tom Rinaldo.

[SoapBox]

13. K & R!

Exactly.

[avaistheone1]

15. Good read

k&r

[lark]

17. Excellent analysis and post.

[geek tragedy]

20. Iowa never decides the nomination. Clinton lost there in 2008 and then won NH and NV.

Bernie could have lost by 10 points and he still would be winning NH.

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. True as far as that goes

We'll never know what would have happened if Bernie lost by 10 pints in Iowa because he didn't of course. I think he may still have won NH but the mainstream media already had their "neighboring state" excuse prepared for that eventuality. This result shatters the Clinton inevitability myth however, even if many still consider her the favorite overall

[geek tragedy]

26. Democratic primaries are pretty immune to media spin

In 2008 Clinton got her ass kicked up one side and down the other in the weeks following Super Tuesday and was declared all but dead in the water--and then she turned around and won PA, OH, TX, etc.

Democrats don't like hearing that they should vote a certain way just because people in another state voted a certain way.

[thereismore]

21. Note to Hillary: If you think AA can't change their minds about you, you might be mistaken. nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. They already have been changing.

We'll see how much time it takes for that to accelerate. That' an open question, the fact that it is happening though is simply fact. Bernie picked up another black State Representative in SC today.

[thereismore]

34. Thanks for that info! nt

[californiabernin]

22. Thanks, Tom. Great writing and spot on!

You've expressed a lot of what I've been thinking, and added some additional insights. Always enjoy reading your posts.

I'm new to DU after many years absence. I think I remember you from the Wes Clark days. Haven't got around to writing letters to NH this time around, but I've been making small donations and getting excited about my state (49 year old California native, lived here all my life) actually mattering this time around. We are a huge, diverse state.

Good for Bernie, I think.

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. Yep, you remember me from those days correctly

Those were heady times, and o many of us - backing different candidates - learned so much during them. I lived in California for 27 years. I love it there and I agree Sanders can win it and it could make a big difference if he does.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

27. The "I like Bernie but he can't win" argument is dead.

[liberal_at_heart]

30. Yes, it is.

[Arazi]

35. Great analysis! eom

[seafan]

36. Your analysis is spot on, Tom Rinaldo.

This is a new direction for our country, at long last. Bernie Sanders leads the way.

Thank you for this superb post.