Didn't Bernie win if it weren't for the coin tosses?

[eomer]

The way I understand it is that there were five instances in which a coin was tossed to decide who would get one county delegate and that Hillary won all five tosses, getting all five county delegates that were decided that way.

Here are the number of county delegates in the final results:

Clinton: 702 (49.96%)
Sanders: 698 (49.68%)
O'Malley: 5 (0.36%)
Total: 1405 (100.00%)

Without the five delegates that were decided by coin toss the totals would have been:

Clinton: 697 (49.79%)
Sanders: 698 (49.86%)
O'Malley: 5 (0.36%)
Total: 1400 (100.00%)

So if this understanding is correct then Bernie actually won the results that were decided by votes.

Even if Clinton had won three out of five coin tosses, she still would not have beaten Sanders:

Clinton: 700 (49.82%)
Sanders: 700 (49.82%)
O'Malley: 5 (0.36%)
Total: 1405 (100.00%)

Only by winning four or five out of five coin tosses did Hillary get more county delegates than Bernie.

The county delegates are (again, as I understand it) the only direct result from last night's caucuses. All the other numbers being reported are just extrapolations or projections from the concrete county delegate numbers.

All this is based on quick research so maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think so. Right now my conclusion is that Bernie actually won in terms of the county delegates chosen by votes. Hillary only "won" if you take into account the coin tosses that flipped the result backwards from what they otherwise were.

Here is where I got the county delegate results:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-D

[DanTex]

1. No. The final tally is of state delegate equivalents. The coin tosses determined county delegates,

which each amount to a fraction of a state delegate equivalent.

[eomer]

4. The direct result of last night's caucuses is the number of county delegates for each candidate.

Those county delegates will go to a county convention where they will choose delegates to the state convention. The state convention delegates will then choose delegates to the national convention. The steps that remain (choosing state delegates and then choosing national delegates) have not happened yet, can have caucus events affect them, and any numbers shown at present for them are just projections that are extrapolated from the number of county delegates.

Again, just my understanding - please show me a source for what you're saying and I'll be happy to look into it.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. You misunderstand what the coin tosses were for

They were for state level delegates, which are several times the number represented by the 1405. So, each coin toss was like a fifth of one of those county delegates. If anything, if the coin tosses all went the other way, it would be 701-699. (or, really, like 701.3 - 698.7)

[eomer]

5. Okay, I think you're right in essence, though you're putting it backwards.

The coin tosses were for county delegates and there are many more of them than 1405.

1405 is the number of state delegates that the county delegates will later choose at their county conventions. The breakdown of the 1405 state delegates is an extrapolation from the number of county delegates, which is a number not reported anywhere that I can find.

So you're right about the bottom line conclusion - the coin tosses did not flip the result - but you should have said that the coin tosses were for county delegates and not for the smaller number of state delegates that are only a projection at present based on the county delegates that were decided directly last night.

I will probably delete this OP after a bit, given that its main conclusion appears to be wrong.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. That's correct...I got mixed up between county and state myself!

But the essence is correct: 8 coin tosses don't factor into the 1405. Rather, they are a small fraction of each single delegate of the 1405. Could be a fifth, a tenth, or a twentieth. Either way, eight coin tosses would not move the state delegate count one way or the other, even if they all went for one candidate (which they didn't). Moreover, coin tosses are not an uncommon way to decide such matters: Obama had several coin toss delegates during the 2008 election.

[Fronkonsteen]

3. Short answer: No, the coin tosses didn't make a difference

The coin tosses only decided a tiny fraction of the thousands of precinct delegates that factored into the allocation of the reported county delegates. Even if all the coin tosses went Bernie's way, it would have had little effect on his share of county delegates. In the early reporting there was no distinction made between precinct delegates and county delegates, hence the confusion.

[B Calm]

7. Washington Post reported at least SIX Iowa precincts decided by coin flip!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/02/clinton-wins-at-least-six-iowa-precincts-by-coin-flip/