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dsc

(52,166 posts)
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:57 PM Feb 2016

So just what are the odds of those coin tosses (or a more extreme distribution of tosses)

First there were apparently 7 coin tosses of which Hillary won 6. So the distributions that are as extreme or more extreme are 7 Hillary wins, 6 Hillary wins, 7 Bernie wins, and 6 Bernie wins. Now any particular outcome has a 1 in 128 chance of occurring. For example H,H,H,H,H,H,H has a 1 in 128 chance of occurring. So does B,B,B,B,B,B,B or H,B,H,B,H,B,H etc. Now if there are 7 wins by either person that can happen only 1 way. If there is one loss, that can happen 7 ways (the win can be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). Thus we have 16 ways for a distribution as extreme as what happened to occur. 16/128 reduces to 1/8. That isn't exactly powerball odds.

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