PPP: NORTH CAROLINA (TIE)

[TroyD]

(Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina:

Obama 48%

Romney 48%


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/252586054366932993

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/30/latest_swing_state_polls.html

[oswaldactedalone]

1. Slight bit of momentum for $omney

in today's polls. The "47%" bounce may have maxed out and all the Faux News blabbering about Libya may start to take a toll.

[demwing]

3. OK, help me out here

how does a 4 point Obama lead in a state that's a must win for Romney equate to momentum for Mitt?

[Mr.Turnip]

5. Not really his numbers didn't move at all in nether NC or OH against PPPs last poll of both states.

Obama just dropped by 1 point in both, its the last vestiges of a convention bounce fading.

[TroyD]

6. PPP suggests something similar

As they point out, these 1-point decreases for Obama are within the margin of error, and we need more data before making any conclusions, but it's possible that Obama's poll bump is leveling off.

[Mr.Turnip]

7. the bump HAS leveled off, the race has stablized with a 4-6 point national lead for Obama.

However Romney hasn't GAINED, Obama doesn't really have momentum anymore but nether does Romney.

[Lex]

2. The fact that Romney is struggling in NC after spending huge money here

is very telling.

[SunSeeker]

15. If he hadn't spent the money, he wouldn't have managed to stay even. nt

Last edited Mon Oct 1, 2012, 12:11 AM - Edit history (1)

[BlueStreak]

4. Doesn't appear NC will be the deciding factor

OH is slipping away. Romney can't win if OH, MI, and WI are all gone. NC is the least of his concerns.

But it seems the real concern is money. In the past 3 weeks, it appears they have done more fund raiser event than campaign appearances.

Their money is running out. Candidates routinely finish the campaign in the hole, with an unwritten understanding that there will be some follow-on help to get them out of hock. But in this case, Romney will be persona non grata after election day and potential donors will say, "Hey Mitt, you have plenty of money to pay those bills yourself."

Romney cares about money a lot more than he cares about winning the Presidency, so he is doing fund-raisers instead of campaigning.

[davidpdx]

16. I think that's the point is Romney is spread so thin now trying to win in place he has to

He can't stay competitive in red states that Obama flipped in 2008. North Carolina will be very close again, but just the fact that Romney is having to dump resources into it means he has less in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

[Lex]

18. Exactly so.

I still hope Obama can get NC again. It was so very exciting to be a blue state on the night he was elected.

[Lex]

8. Obama has a great ground game here. Tons of new Dem voters registered in NC

and this article explains it a bit:

Obama Using Voter Registration To Stay Close In North Carolina

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/28/obama-nc-voter-registration_n_1922296.html

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Is it true that PPP doesn't call mobile phones?

That's what someone on DU said. PPP polls could underrepresent Obama support in certain states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. PPP Is A Democratic Pollster And They Don't Call Cell Phone Only Users

.

[TroyD]

11. Why not?

I thought Rasmussen was the only pollster that ignored cell phones.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Gravis Marketing Is A Robocaller. I'm Sure There Are Others.

As to "why not" I assume it's because it's expensive.

I need to see more polls but there does seem to be a small amount of tightening; maybe a point or two. There should be quite a few nat'l and swing state polls released ahead of the debates.

I look at Wednesday's debate as a game four of a seven game playoff series where one team is up 2-1.

[demwing]

17. Current law states you can't auto-dial Cell phones

and PPP use auto-dialing

[TroyD]

13. Full results

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/dead-even-in-north-carolina.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That's The Same Advantage McCain Had In 08 When He Narrowly Lost*- Click For 08 Exit Poll

* Romney has a 62-35 one with whites



http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#NCP00p1