2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Washington post-Abcnews poll shows Obama 49%-Romney 47%
[link:http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/postabcpoll_20120929.html|
Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)this poll has been consistently good for Romney on the national level and he's still behind here.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)if he is +11 in swing states then he is more ahead than +2 nationally.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)This will give 'em their story leading up to the debate.
"Romney closes polling gap on the eve of presidential debate"
"With momentum on his side, Romney looks to reassure voters he can lead"
"In statistical tie with President, Romney delivers stunning rebuke of Obama administration in first debate"
"Romney nips at Obama's lead, gains after debate"
It's coming. They want a horse race and they'll do everything in their power to make it a horse race.
Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)It MUST be a close race because that sells advertisements and thats really what its all about. Certainly its time for it to become a "horserace" again whether it is or not.
former9thward
(32,017 posts)Not people looking at public polls published in newspapers and other media. The campaigns do not pay attention to public polls. They have their own private polling which they never release to the public. So if they are buying ads they must think it is close.
ChimpersMcSmirkers
(3,328 posts)This increases their ad revenue from websites/tv shows.
DeeDeeNY
(3,355 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I don't quite understand the dynamics of this poll. I can only guess that Obama is doing remarkably bad in deep red states in the South to only lead by two nationally but hold significant leads in swing states.
Tribetime
(4,697 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Thankfully, their votes will mean shit in the end. Let Alabama and Utah go 70% for Romney. Fuck them.
progree
(10,908 posts)states.
The poll defined working class as having less than a bachelors degree and being paid by the hour or by the job.
No other region in the country had anywhere near that differential. In the West, Romney led by just 5 percentage points among white working class voters. In the Northeast, he leads by 4 percentage points. And in the Midwest, Obama leads Romney by 8 percentage points among white working class voters.
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120930/COLUMNISTS21/309300041/1001/Joseph-Gerth-Polls-suggest-Kentucky-voters-gone-South?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CHome%7Cp
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And they're still being stupid enough to vote for Romney?
progree
(10,908 posts)And the only reason they are red states is because the whites in the South are so overwhelmingly Republican.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)progree
(10,908 posts)And as for southern whites, overall, in what way are they the "biggest group of welfare recipients"? Just wondering where you get your statistics - you seem so sure "Seriously .... Period".
Is it because whites are still the majority of the population (nationwide 64%)? What about the welfare recipient RATE? To me, that's the more relevant measure.
Nationwide, according to an AP 8/8/12 article about the welfare caseload, "The latest statistics show the welfare caseload is divided thus: 33 percent black, 31 percent white and 29 percent Hispanic."
So, at least nation-wide, whites are not the biggest group of welfare recipients, even though they constitute 63.7% of the population.
Also, according to the 2010 census, 63.7% of the population is non-Hispanic white, 16.3% is Hispanic, and 12.6% is black. Doing the math, the black welfare rate is 5.4 times the (non-Hispanic) white rate, while the Hispanic rate is 3.7 X the (non-Hispanic) white rate.
To me, it is not progressive to deny that income inequality hit minorities the hardest.
former9thward
(32,017 posts)Why is the "Southern white working class" demographic the most dependent on the government?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)states. Hence, the vote suppression targeted to some of these populous BLUE states and a little going on in RED states with BLUE populations like the Atlanta area, Houston and Dallas, and South Carolina. If the voters in populous BLUE areas in these RED states are disenfranchised, that also chips away at the popular vote margin.
progree
(10,908 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)process, it may be difficult to get accurate opinions from "registered voters" who support the president/Democrats.
Many of these polls provide numbers for "registered voters" and as we all know, there's been some problems in that area, thanks to Republicans who are tampering with that process.
progree
(10,908 posts)In the case of a Republican-funded voter registration drive, they might (and no doubt sometimes do) go ahead and register the Democrat (DemTard or DemocRAT in their parlance), but then throw away, err, "lose" their registration later. Anyway, because the Democrat thinks he/she is registered, he would be telling a pollster that he is. But come election day, complications begin, "Sir, sir, I'm sorry sir, your name is nowhere on our voter rolls. But if you register now, you will be able to vote in the 2013 city council elections ".
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)GOTV people.
creeksneakers2
(7,473 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)jaysunb
(11,856 posts)a media giant conducts a poll that they-and other big media- can tout as a " horserace", which lead to more ad dollars. Wow, what a deal....
MADem
(135,425 posts)We are unable to locate the page you requested.
The page may have moved or may no longer be available
You may also want to try our search
to locate news and information on washingtonpost.com
SEARCH:
For incorrectly linked articles or features please contact our Customer Care team.
We appreciate your help.
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)Need a lot more polls to think something has changed.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)ABC's poll has had Romney up more than any other major national poll (outside Rasmussen).
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But they are another pollster that has a history of small Obama numbers in the past.
Phaerisee
(36 posts)Some of us Independent types watched the GOP primaries and a lot of tricky stuff happened. Expect more of the same here in the General Election. 47 percent of Americans are going to vote for Mitt Romney? The Numbers do not add up.
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Works for me!