WBUR/MassInc poll: (Warren 46, Brown 44) (With leaners: Warren 49, Brown 45)

[TroyD]

October 1, 2012

BOSTON — The latest WBUR poll of 504 likely voters (PDFs – topline, crosstabs) finds a still tight race between Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and his Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, with Warren leading Sen. Brown by two points, 46 to 44 percent. The survey, conducted Sept. 26-28 by MassINC Polling Group, has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

The two candidates meet in their second debate Monday night in Lowell. The 40 percent polled who watched the first debate are split on who they feel won. Sixteen percent say Brown won, 14 percent say Warren did.

One of the key factors playing in Warren’s favor is voters’ discomfort with the idea of Republicans taking control of the Senate. Only 29 percent of likely voters in our poll say they would prefer to see Republicans in control; 58 percent say they would prefer to see Democrats continue to run the Senate.

SNIP

In WBUR’s last Senate poll, more people believed Warren would “stand up for regular people when in the Senate.” Forty-three percent of likely voters said that, compared to 39 percent in the latest poll. But Brown has seen a big jump among people who see him that way. Thirty-five percent of likely voters now consider Brown the candidate most likely to stand up for regular people, compared to 29 percent in WBUR’s last poll.

More:

http://www.wbur.org/2012/10/01/senate-poll-warren-lead-narrow

http://www.wbur.org/files/2012/09/Topline-2012-09-BUR-MASen4.pdf

http://www.wbur.org/files/2012/09/Crosstabs-2012-09-WBUR-MASen4.pdf

[graham4anything]

1. I will say it again- Elizabeth Warren can gain 3-10 points instantly if she made a pledge

and the pledge would be that she will promise to remain in the senate the entire 6 year term,
and not aspire to higher office (possibly even pledging 12 years).

We need a liberal fireball to lead (and perhaps become majority leader for the democratic president...wouldn't that be something after Harry Reid retires from the post?)

but (and very liberal relatives of mine live in Boston area) and I keep hearing people saying they don't believe she will be there the entire time, and that they then fear Scott Brown will just re-gain that seat(and the same with Sen. Kerry leaving to take a cabinet post and Mass. will lose that seat too).

So if she would make a pledge she would most likely gain such a bounce, that it will make the close race out of reach for Scott Brown.
people do not like transient seats of someone they vote for.

[TroyD]

2. Warren needs to be tougher in tonight's debate

She let Scott Brown off too easy last time.

1. She needs to connect Brown to Romney & Rove, which she didn't do in the first debate.

2. When he tries to claim that the 'independent' Chamber of Commerce supports him, she needs to remind voters that they are pro-big business and their voting records almost always endorses Republicans.

[reformist2]

3. She needs to plant the seed that Scott Brown has been playing nice so he could win re-election...

Republican Scott Brown got elected to a two-year term in one of the most liberal states in the country... OF COURSE he's going to be on his best behavior so that he could win re-election to a full six-year term!

It's a very believable message, and also makes people see Scott Brown less as some sort of independent voice, and more as a calculated player for the GOP team.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. I love Liz, but she needs to get a little more aggressive. I know that as a woman we often

have to be more measured, and that's really sad. However, I think she's too soft spoken. Too calm. She needs to really go after Scott Brown, not only for his racism, but on his record! I believe that she can win if MA voters can get over their love affair with Scott Brown and their issues with women candidates.