Upset Brewing In Florida Congressional Race As Patrick Murphy Takes Lead Over Allen West

[TroyD]

SPRINGFIELD, Mass., Sept. 30, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- According to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of registered "likely" voters in Florida's 18th Congressional District, Democrat Patrick Murphy has a 4 point lead over Republican Congressman Allen West (49 percent to 45 percent) with 6 percent undecided. The figure is within the survey's 4.8 percent margin of error.

President Obama holds a 7 point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (52 percent to 45 percent) with 3 percent undecided.

The data suggests that Murphy's base support is coming out of Palm Beach County with 58% of the vote while West's base support is in Martin County (52 percent of the vote). St. Lucie County is a toss-up with 47% of voters supporting West and 46% supporting Murphy. Contrary to popular opinion younger voters 18-39 years old are breaking toward the Republican candidates by a wide margin. The pollster, Spencer Kimball, President of Kimball Political Consulting said "West holds a 25 point lead with the younger voters but since the district is made up of older voters he needs to persuade those 50-59 years old to vote for him. Murphy currently carries this age group by 17 points."

http://news.yahoo.com/upset-brewing-florida-congressional-race-patrick-murphy-takes-171900569.html

[hlthe2b]

1. I'll bet this is one area that fraudulent RETHUG voter registration group...

was targeting. I hope they left unsuccessful.

[JDPriestly]

22. I don't see how fraudulent voter registrations would affecting polling or voting.

How do you think that would work?

The registration form has a telephone number. That is why and how the pollsters can contact the voter. If the number is fraudulent, who would answer? Do you think that the Republicans not only registered fraudulent voters but is renting phones for these voters and keeping staff on hand to answer them?

How would that work?

Maybe this is more relevant.

As of the census[5] of 2000, there were 126,731 people, 55,288 households, and 36,213 families residing in the county. The population density was 228 per square mile (88 /km2). There were 65,471 housing units at an average density of 118 per square mile (46 /km2). The racial makeup of the county was 89.88% White, 5.27% Black or African American, 0.30% Native American, 0.60% Asian, 0.10% Pacific Islander, 2.72% from other races, and 1.14% from two or more races. 7.50% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race.

In 2000 there were 55,288 households out of which 21.50% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 55.00% were married couples living together, 7.40% had a female householder with no husband present, and 34.50% were non-families. 29.00% of all households were made up of individuals and 16.00% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.23 and the average family size was 2.71.

In the county the population was spread out with 18.60% under the age of 18, 5.30% from 18 to 24, 22.90% from 25 to 44, 24.90% from 45 to 64, and 28.20% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 47 years. For every 100 females there were 96.40 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 94.20 males.

The median income for a household in the county was $43,083, and the median income for a family was $53,244. Males had a median income of $36,133 versus $27,000 for females. The per capita income for the county was $29,584. About 5.60% of families and 8.80% of the population were below the poverty line, including 13.80% of those under age 18 and 5.20% of those age 65 or over.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_County,_Florida

[djean111]

26. Here is what they are doing -

it seems a lot of the fraudulent registrations are in the name of actual registered voters.
But - with different address, different signature, different birth date, things like that.
The voter will get challenged when he votes, and at best will fill out a provisional ballot.
In Florida - good luck getting a provisional ballot that is Democrat actually counted.
This is a very long game they have been playing.

[JDPriestly]

61. Oh! But are the signatures valid?

And doesn't the person who obtains the forms have to sign for them?

I do a lot of voter registrations. I don't think it would be so simple to cheat in this way.

[cecilfirefox]

54. +1 to JDPriestly, election time always causes some people to go off the deep end. nt

[rfranklin]

2. West holds a 25 point lead with the younger voters?

Man, what the hell is wrong with people in Florida?

[TroyD]

3. Maybe a rogue result?

I don't know that area well enough to comment. Perhaps West is popular with the young Tea Party crowd?

But as the poll says, since the majority of voters are middle-aged and older, if Murphy is beating West with those voters, Murphy can win.

[INdemo]

9. I am going to do some research on this but ..I just dont see how

this number is accurate..It just appears this number was pilled out of a hat.
This survey with samplings of 408 voters that means that 102 young voters were voting for West..not hardly enough sampling for a accurate polling result..As much as many of us dislike Zogby he insists that polls are worthless with less than 1000-1500 samplings.

" The district wide survey of 408 Florida likely voters was conducted September 28, 2012, using automated telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.8 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Methodology, Analysis, Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available on the following link below."

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/09/30/4867821/upset-brewing-in-florida-congressional.html#storylink=cpy

[Spitfire of ATJ]

44. It always gets me when a national poll has a sample of 1000. That's only only 20 per state.

Apparently the Republicans aren't the only ones who believe America is anti-arithmetic.

[Qutzupalotl]

38. Maybe they think he's Adam West

aka Batman

[jmowreader]

55. Christian Bale is Batman to the people we're talking about

More likely: if this is a phone survey, young teabaggers are answering when their caller ID indicates a polling firm, and young Democrats are letting it go to voicemail.

[Qutzupalotl]

60. They might know him as the mayor of Quahog. n/t

[Cha]

39. Yeah, that sounded very weird

to me. Like a typo.

[Xipe Totec]

4. Tough fight

Allen West is no lightweight.

[Angry Dragon]

6. except his brain

[Xipe Totec]

7. Let's not fight straw men

I don't like Allen West's politics, and he's said some outrageous things and acted like an ass, but saying that he's a lightweight in terms of brains is not a credible statement considering that he is a graduate of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff Officer College with a Master's degree, and a retired colonel.

I hope Patrick Murphy wins, but it's not going to be an easy fight.

[TroyD]

8. West said there were 75 socialists in the Democratic Party earlier this year

That makes him sound like Sen. Joe McCarthy or Angela Lansbury's character from the 1962 film, 'The Manchurian Candidate'.

Btw, I didn't mention it in my OP, but Kimball tends to lean GOP, so the fact that they have Murphy ahead of West is probably good news for the Florida Dems.

The internal Dem poll I posted above shows Murphy ahead by 9, which might be optimistic since internal polls sometimes are, but we have 2 polls that show Murphy ahead so that could be the trendline.

[Xipe Totec]

12. I know. Here are 13 Outrageous Allen West Comments

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/12/13-outrageous-allen-west-comments-house-democrats-communists-more.html

The guy is an ass, but he's a smart-ass. That's all I'm saying.

We need to be careful not to underestimate the opposition.

[JustAnotherGen]

15. I'm in agreement with you . . .

West isn't a dummy. His approach to life and job as a member of the House is stupid - but he's not a stupid person.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

45. He's smart enough to tell the fanatics what they like to hear.

[JustAnotherGen]

56. Exactly

But could it be - the Tricorn Hat Wearing Idiots days are coming to an end?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

59. Absolutely.

How do I know?

Easy:

http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/family-guy-does-tea-party

[12AngryBorneoWildmen]

18. He said 'Communists'.

Big difference. Most everyone is a socialist, to some degree.

[Cha]

40. Yeah, West made the stupid accusation that

80 Members of Congress were Communists. He thinks he's Joe Fucking McCarthy in another life.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/04/19/467235/allen-west-wont-name-names/

[Angry Dragon]

10. I will stand by my statement

I believe that he was able to resign from the military by the skin of his teeth
So he has a master's degree in killing ........... ummmm
and yes he has issued many statements proving he has no idea how to act in society

[DCKit]

14. +1. I couldn't have said it so politely. nt

[MADem]

19. He is a retired LT Colonel and yes there is a difference.

Further, he went to an ART 15 proceeding on charges of "assault" and was fined five grand for, in essence, torturing a local national cop in Iraq (fired a weapon at him to get info) who wasn't guilty of anything save being in the wrong place at the wrong time. He retired as a LT Colonel because, as they say, he had "reached his terminal rank." He reached that terminal rank because of his poor judgment in that incident. He would have failed to select for promotion had he stayed during a timeframe where pretty near no one in the Army was failing of selection.

He had enough time in service to retire honorably BEFORE the incident occurred, so his retirement wasn't a "gift" to him--once you have the time in, you get to retire even if you screw up after that marker--you can be stripped of the rank you held at the time of the infraction, though.

[olegramps]

41. With those credentials he could get a cup of Joe if he throws in five bucks.

[Xipe Totec]

53. Cute. But will you be proud of that post tomorrow?

Think carefully.

As a member of the Democratic Underground community, do you think your post conveys solid insightful understanding of the political situation on the ground in Florida?

Do you think your post will persuade undecided voters in Florida's 18th District to vote for Murphy?

Are you setting Murphy's victory in the congressional elections as a goal above your personal satisfaction of throwing one more zinger at Allen West?

Keep in mind that what you post has an audience far beyond the members of DU.

What you post might be used against Democratic candidates.

What you post could be construed as disrespect for Americans in Uniform, a constituency that we desperately need to join to our cause?

THINK....

[olegramps]

62. Firstly, the military have never nor will they ever be big supporters of Democrats.

What makes you think that we should condescend to their level to gain their support? Sorry, Alan West is an irresponsible jerk. I have no intention of providing him any degree of credibility. The GOP is driven by racism and I don't welcome their support. I have personally attended six Tea Party events and I can assure you that the vast majority believe Obama is a Muslim, foreign born socialist. If you want to delude yourself into believing you can win over these people then you are badly mistaken. Lastly, I am a veteran and member of the VFW and I can assure you that it is dominated by right wingers who have absolutely no respect for President Obama.

[ywcachieve]

48. Adam West is a jerk.

[Xipe Totec]

49. On that we agree. nt

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

51. Why do you hate Batman?

It's ALLEN West....

Adam West is an actor, and by all accounts, a fantastic guy.

[TroyD]

5. Internal Democratic poll has West down by 9

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/dem-poll-allen-west-trailing-by-in-reelection-bid-137074.html

[Jester Messiah]

11. West was always destined for a radio talk show.

That's where he's gonna wind up. Two hours a day of venting his spleen on some local radio station that nobody outside of Bumfuck Nowhere will hear, with occasional appearances as a contributor on Fox.

[AllyCat]

13. Oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please...! eom

[goclark]

16. Thugs are cherry picking

Imo...they seem to pick a group to suppress in different locations so that they only have to steal
a critical group or two to win...

[MADem]

17. Is Florida's 18th tired of being humiliated by that assclown, ya think? nt

[hay rick]

23. He's running in the 18th but currently represents the 22nd.

Florida went through redistricting and West decided to jump districts because 22 became more Democratic. Murphy was originally going to challenge him in the 22nd and moved his campaign when West switched. I'm sure a lot of voters, regardless of district, are tired of Allen West's act.

[MADem]

29. Ahhhh! That changes the dynamic--is there any overlap at all? Or are they completely different

constituencies?

That's an important aspect, thanks for bringing it into the discussion!

[hay rick]

31. They are nearby, which I think is important.

I don't think there is any overlap, but it is adjacent to his old district (just to the north). The important connection is both the old and new districts are served by a lot of the same major media out of Miami and West Palm.

[MADem]

33. Are FL voters that stupid or is this guy just a big TV blowhard who does ZIP in the way of

constituent services and gets by on his name and face recognition?

Usually, a smart representative will ramp up their constituent services first thing and work very hard to reach out to movers/shakers as well as "the little guys" in the district to build up a cadre of people who are loyal to him(her) because that's the team that will do the precinct walking/smiling-and-dialing/beating the bushes for donors to get reelected.

I can't imagine a rep moving to a completely different district and having anything resembling a ground game. Very odd. That must have been SOME redistricting!!

I hope he gets beaten six ways to Sunday!

[BenzoDia]

20. Would love to see Allen West and his toxic comments disappear. Go Florida!

[backscatter712]

21. There isn't much that would make me happier than seeing Uncle Ruckus thrown out of Congress! n/t

[wryter2000]

24. Please, please

I don't get paid again until the 12th, but I'll donate something. To get rid of this creep and Joe Walsh? Yay!

[chemenger]

25. Florida's 18th Congressional District really needs to get rid of Allen West

There is something very seriously wrong with this guy ... as in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) wrong ...

How he rose to the rank of lieutenant colonel in the US ARMY is a complete mystery ...

[TroyD]

27. There are a LOT of crazy people in the Pentagon & CIA

Seriously.

There's a reason why America is constantly involved in war & killing.

[olegramps]

42. That's one of the criteria for advancement plus membership in the Repukians.

[hay rick]

28. Previous polls had Murphy up by 1, so this is good- with caveats.

1. Poll is only 408 people.
2. West just unleashed an attack ad on the day the poll was taken. It remains if this will have an effect and if it will be successfully countered.
3. West has a ton of money at his disposal.

The attack ad shows a mug shot of Murphy at age 19 after he was arrested for a disturbance outside a nightclub. It contrasted this with an image "from the same day" of West in uniform preparing to go off to Iraq. The ad doesn't mention Murphy's age at the time or the fact that there were no charges. It also doesn't mention that West returned from Iraq after receiving Article 15 discipline, a $5,000 fine, and being removed from his command. His career trashed, he retired soon after.

The Murphy campaign was surprised that West went there- you don't expect the guy living in a glass house to throw the first rock. West definitely opened the door for a "response." Maybe West is getting desperate.

[RockaFowler]

32. He's very desperate

And the fact that he's also running a 1:00 ad that says Patrick Murphy is running a negative campaign smacks of self-righteous indignation.

[Beer Snob-50]

34. saw this ad this am on fox and friends

they and west were very proud of it. the mensas on f&f said that many experts were saying that this is the most effective contrast ad ever made.

[hay rick]

43. The rw noise machine loves it.

Win a battle, lose a war. The strategic problem with the ad is it gives the Murphy campaign standing to bring up West's torture/assault Article 15 conviction as a correction to the story that West is peddling. Up to this point they haven't made an issue of West's tattered military record, presumably because they didn't want to appear to be running a negative campaign.

[bigdarryl]

30. Can someone from Florida explain to me what the hell has Allan West done for young people

In that state here you have a young guy Murphy who has more in common with them does West unless I'm missing something

[hay rick]

36. Polling update.

Just finished volunteering at the local Murphy office. We have new polling data from Garin-Hart-Yang. Details:

Poll conducted Sept 26 and 27.
401 likely voters.
Party registration among respondents: 37% D, 44% R.
Result: Murphy 52%, West 43%, Undecided 5%.

Note the oversampling of Republicans- the district is close to 50-50.

We're doing good. Not sure we're doing this good, but I like it.

[Pamelajaynn]

47. my vote

Count me in too!! Registered Democrat in Florida.

[hay rick]

50. Welcome to DU.

Consider yourself counted in!

[Zambero]

37. It appears that West is not wearing well on his constituents

One of several Tea Party extremists in the House who will hopefully be shown the door.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

52. Hopefully Michelle the Loon's people will feel the same way in MN.

Talk about constituents being abused.

[Pamelajaynn]

46. FL

Can't wait to vote for Murphy yahoo!!!

[april]

57. here is hoping ...

[marmar]

58. Good. That nutcase needs to be shown the door. Quickly.

nt