Are there any comprehensive studies of the state of the House, polling-wise?

[Grown2Hate]

Nate Silver seems to have his hands full with the Presidency and the Senate, and I've seen no other websites with a comprehensive look at the state of the race as pertains to the House. I mean, RCP has a section, but it seems to be based primarily on the "Generic Ballot" polls and the individual races appear to be unmoved for the last several months. Any help would be appreciated (or would could all just lobby Nate to get on the freaking ball).

[fredamae]

1. I hate polls But I have used this

link in the past--Always had House races included..but curiously Not this year..I've too searched far and wide but nothing tracking US House races---Why? It's a BFD this year especially. Perhaps this is no accident? I call BS if they say they're too busy...


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Jennicut]

2. Try this, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

He has been very accurate the last few years.

"After shuffling many of our House ratings, it’s pretty obvious that the race for the House remains locked in a battle of trench warfare, with little obvious movement on either side. Given that the Republicans start from a position of great strength — Democrats need to net 25 seats to take control of the House — the GOP remains a heavy favorite to hold the lower chamber of Congress.

Our new ratings show 195 safe seats for the Republicans and 156 safe seats for the Democrats, with 14 likely Republican seats and 13 likely Democratic seats. That leaves 23 leaning Republican and 20 leaning Democratic with 14 toss-ups. Only 57 of 435 seats — 13% — are in the leaning or toss-up categories.

Our last full House update projected a Democratic gain of six seats; this time, we’re projecting a Democratic gain of four seats. Given the nature of the House — where many races are likely to be close to the end and where reliable polling is relatively scant, compared to Senate or gubernatorial races — our projections are bound to change, perhaps dramatically, in the last seven weeks before the election. But the center of gravity in this race — two sides locked in a close contest — is clear, and it favors the Republicans."
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/

I don't think we are taking the House back. I think we gain a few seats, setting us up to possibly take the House back in 2014. Sabato thinks the Senate is going the Dem's way.

[TroyD]

3. Rep. John Tierney (D) is vulnerable in MA

OCTOBER 01, 2012

Republicans may have their best chance of winning a Massachusetts congressional seat in nearly two decades with Richard R. Tisei pulling six percentage points ahead of Representative John F. Tierney in a new Boston Globe poll.

Tisei, a former state senator from Wakefield, leads Tierney, a Salem Democrat, 37 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, with 30 percent undecided.

The high percentage of undecided voters reflects the electorate’s lack of knowledge of Tisei as well as Tierney’s relative unpopularity, even among members of his own party, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll.

“Tierney is vulnerable, very vulnerable,” Smith said. “He’s in really rough shape to pull this out, by historical standards.”

The findings suggest that unflattering attention from the illegal gambling ring that was run by Tierney’s brothers-in-law has taken a serious toll on the congressman’s reelection campaign, Smith said.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2012/09/30/tisei-leads-tierney-globe-poll/wYWKkqXd1KaIpIW5lF8AVN/story.html

http://www.boston.com/multimedia/2012/10/01poll/poll_web_monday_final.pdf

[brooklynite]

7. Other at-risk incumbents

Kathy Hochul
Mark Critz
Jim Matheson
Leonard Boswell
Mike McIntyre
Larry Kissell
John Barrow

[brooklynite]

4. Sam Wang (Princeton) has a model that claims 68% probability of a D takeover...

2010:How'd we do?

A possible House Flip enters Pundit's Imaginations

...but it's based on Generical Ballot polling, which many people think is risky. All of the rating groups (Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, Roll Call, NYT) still think it's a heavy lift to get to net + 25.


I put another $5,000 into DCCC yesterday, but I'm not fully convinced either.

[TroyD]

6. Nate Silver doesn't think the House will flip from what I can tell n/t

[Grown2Hate]

8. Thank you all for your responses. Seems there is scant data, but at least I have some good

resources with which to start. Thanks, all!