UMass Lowell Tracking Poll: Sanders -3; Clinton +4 since Tuesday

[brooklynite]

I recall that "campaign meltdown" was popular in Iowa...

[joshcryer]

1. Sanders still has a 22 point lead.

Assume for the sake of argument that the +6 bump was due to Iowa and Clinton can pull another 12 points in the 5 days between now and the primary (being very generous to the ground game). She'd still lose by ten points. Highly unrealistic she takes NH.

[brooklynite]

2. She doesn't have to win...

...she just has to lower Sanders' margin enough that his win isn't as dramatic.

[Kentonio]

4. Agreed. It's a big ask though with only 5 days to go.

[joshcryer]

5. Anything less than a late night "too soon to call" is a loss.

It's when people go to sleep waiting for results that they consider it a wash (and whoever is finally "decided" doesn't get much of a bump from it).

[cali]

6. Lol. I love hypocrisy.

Hilly's win in Iowa was a great victory but if Bernie doesn't win by 30 in New Hampshire, it's a victory for her.


And no, I do not respect her.

[Armstead]

12. Speaking of double standards...

Bernie pulls from way behind to a virtual tie, but it is meaningless because she "won" by a couple of percentage points.

But all Hillary has to do is lose by 5 or 10 points in NH to "win."

Hoooookay

[riversedge]

13. A win is a win. Period

[Armstead]

14. Read the post I was referring to.

[tarheelsunc]

27. The poster said very clearly "she doesn't have to win"

How do you take that to mean the poster thinks she wins if she doesn't win?

[jonestonesusa]

26. You mean like Sanders just did in Iowa? eom

[TwilightGardener]

34. She won in 2008. Of course she does. Why would they change their minds on her?

She's even more high-profile now, with SoS under her belt.

[riversedge]

8. She will fight for every vote. Hillary does not give up

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. You need to add the vote for and the vote against Ted Kennedy's immigration bill to your graphic./nt

[riversedge]

22. Oh, I have to admit I pouched

that poster--I did do posters at one time but have been using an old computer and do not have the program on this one.

[KingCharlemagne]

28. ...^^Voted for Iraq War .................................^^Voted against Iraq War. - nt

[DrDan]

10. well - not really

if she pulled another 12%, it would have to come from somewhere. If all from Bernie's 58%, it could be close.

[joshcryer]

17. Fair point, but there's 6% undecided.

[DrDan]

20. yep - so Bernie would come down a minimum of 6% with an MOE of 3%

virtually tied

[treestar]

21. lolololololol

whenever Bernie gained before, it was a "surge" and it didn't matter that HRC was still way ahead.

[SamKnause]

3. Where you expecting the poll numbers to stay they same ???

I was expecting them to fluctuate while both candidates are campaigning

in the state.

[riversedge]

9. Nothing said anything about the tracking poll staying the same. You did.

[SamKnause]

11. Thanks for correcting my error.

[KingCharlemagne]

29. ...^^Voted for Iraq War .................................^^Voted against Iraq War. - nt

[virtualobserver]

7. Yes Bernie moved from 61 to 58

movement within the margin of error cannot be described as anything other than a meltdown.

Maybe Hillary can afford to start dating again....with financial services companies.

[DCBob]

15. This is a very good sign and not unexpected.

I also suspect Bernie's numbers are inflated due to Independents who might switch to the Republican primary due to the more "compelling" race among the RW lunatic candidates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. She doesn't have to win. It's all about expectations.

See the 42nd president and his showing in New Hampshire.

[DCBob]

19. Oh yes, totally agree.

It will be easy to dismiss a victory by Bernie in East Vermont as long as its not a blowout.

[TwilightGardener]

33. Frontrunner should really win. She's got the money, she's got the endorsements, and NH loves her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. The press will write the narrative and not you or I./nt

[TwilightGardener]

37. So you think the press will be Hill-friendly? I agree.

Amazing how competitive Bernie is without that advantage.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Too early to project what the narrative will be.

I need to see the results. I wouldn't rule out an outright Clinton win.

I saw Ted Kennedy close a thirty point gap in the NY primary in a matter of days against Jimmy Carter.

[TwilightGardener]

40. I expect it to be very close, or she might even edge him.

If she doesn't, you'd have to wonder why they're changing their minds on her this time around.

[stonecutter357]

23. K&R!

[riversedge]

24. Good day for Hillary

Hiller Instinct: 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll day 4
Posted: Feb 04, 2016 5:50 AM CST
Updated: Feb 04, 2016 5:50 AM CST
Reported by Andy Hiller

Politics in New Hampshire

MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) -

It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving.

We're seeing more of Iowa's impact, and the war of words underway here.

Hillary Clinton is coming back; and Marco Rubio is coming up.
.........................................

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down.

Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton-- 58% to 36%-- a 22 point margin.

But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.

Related: Clinton defends progressive record against Sanders critique

You see the trends, and so will the candidates.

They're good for Rubio and Clinton... and not very good for anyone else.

[PotatoChip]

25. I love this new poll! Thanks brooklynite, for bringing it to my attention.

This is what 'The Hill" says about it:

February 03, 2016, 07:46 am
Sanders's NH lead at 33 points after Iowa caucuses

Bernie Sanders has over double the voter support of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

Sanders leads the Democratic presidential front-runner by 33 points among registered Democrats in the University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey released Wednesday. He takes 63 percent in the Granite State, contrasted with 30 percent for Clinton in results unchanged from the pollsters' previous survey.

Just 19 percent “could change their mind” about the Vermont lawmaker, while 25 percent admitted that may rethink the former secretary of State.

UMass-Lowell/7 News conducted its latest survey of 415 Democratic-leaning voters in New Hampshire via cell and landline telephone interviews from Jan. 31–Feb. 2. It has a 5.38 percent margin of error.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268008-sanders-leads-clinton-by-33-in-nh-after-iowa

Here is a link to the poll itself:

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-3%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230574.pdf

[mcar]

30. I like the direction this is going

[PotatoChip]

31. Me too! ^Kicking for my explanation in the post above yours.^

[mcar]

35. I'd love to see things tighten up

I don't think there's time for HRC to take the lead but closing the gap would sure change the media narrative, wouldn't it?

[TwilightGardener]

38. I think she can win. Closing the gap isn't enough for the frontrunner and presumed nominee.

[PotatoChip]

41. I wouldn't be surprised if the gap will close some.

even though it's looking great for Bernie right now based on the OP's poll.

But yes, I agree the gap will probably close a little bit. After all, NH is pretty conservative for a NE state, and she's got Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin with his NRA rating of A (or A+ depending on the year) helping her campaign there.

https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/5276/peter-shumlin/37#.VrN-b1UrLnB

Party Registration/Names on Checklist History
December 28, 2015

Democratic -229,202 (26.2%)
Republican -260,896 (29.8%)
Undeclared -383,834 (43.9%)
------------------------------------------
Total -873,932

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

[TwilightGardener]

32. I think she's going to take NH.

Or at least make it very, very close.