How a 2% national lead is giving Obama an 11% swing-state lead

[flpoljunkie]

If you looked only at the top-line numbers, today’s new Washington Post-ABC News poll would seem to show a tight race. Obama leads Romney nationally by a razor-thin 49 percent to 47 percent. But if you only look at swing states, he’s leading by double-digits: 52 percent to 41 percent. This discrepancy is explained by Romney’s large margin in solid red states. He leads those by 14 points, 56 percent to 42 percent, while Obama leads solid Democratic states by only 10 points (53 percent to 43 percent).

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/01/washington-post-poll-how-a-2-national-lead-is-giving-obama-an-11-swing-state-lead/

[longship]

1. Informative article on latest WaPo polling.

R&

[Jim Lane]

2. Perhaps Romney is doing worse in the swing states because he's been campaigning there.

During the primary season, it was noted by more than one commentator that Romney's campaigning didn't seem to help him. The more that voters knew about him, the less they liked him. The part of his campaign that won it for him was his ad blitzes attacking his rivals.

[Amonester]

3. Because his rivals (except Hunstman) were even worst than him!

Hunstman was never a real threat to him anyway. I mean, 'moneywise'.

[Cosmocat]

4. I have been posting this for weeks

he made a point of trying to go after "Nascar" fans, and ended up with worst poll numbers from them.

he has campaigned hard in Florida and Ohio, and seen 10 point spreads since then.

The more this moron tries to woo votes from voting blocks the more he loses their votes.

[DCBob]

5. I have suspected this was the case.

This is why national polling is extremely misleading this year.

[pstokely]

6. Mittens only ahead by single tickets in TN and SC

nt

[CheapShotArtist]

7. No wonder why the polling is that close despite O's big swing state lead.

I thought the media was just fucking around with the numbers to get more viewers. The solid blue states are more populated than the reds, so I thought his national lead should be higher.