Just released PPP (D) National Post Iowa Poll-Clinton 53% Sanders 32%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53/32. Sanders does keep
gradually moving closer- our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December
and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him
to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters- Clinton leads 82/8 with
them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some
possibility for Sanders to improve his position- part of his problem is just that black
voters don’t really know him yet- but he’s starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will
make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.
“Bernie Sanders continues to make in roads with most segments of the Democratic
electorate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his continued
struggles with African Americans could give him a lot of trouble when the contest moves
beyond New Hampshire to states where there’s racial diversity.”

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

[HerbChestnut]

1. Improvement for Sanders, but we all know how accurate PPP is...

How far off were they in Iowa?

[treestar]

2. That's strange

does that show that the caucus is thus not effective as to determining what the voters want?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Hillary technically won. But let's stipulate it was a virtual tie.

A tie freezes the race where it was, with Clinton comfortably ahead.

[workinclasszero]

3. Gee at the rate Bernie is moving

he will be Burnt toast after super tuesday.

Maybe he can count on his friends at FOX NEWS to muddy the waters in other primaries and cement in his sore loser persona?

[GarnettCL]

4. For PPP

That is good for Bernie.

[MoonRiver]

7. That's a joke, right?

PPP has been in Bernie's camp the entire primary.

[jeff47]

9. Sure, that's why they had Clinton up by 8 in IA.

Oh wait....

[Motown_Johnny]

5. PPP had Hillary up by 8 in Iowa when it was a virtual tie.

So if we assume that 8 is their margin of error (or bias) then we should subtract half of that (4) from Hillary's 53% leaving her at 49%.

Then we should add 4 to Bernie's 32% to have him at 36%.

That seems like a more reasonable estimate.

Next, lets see what happens after New Hampshire.

[stonecutter357]

6. K&R!

[jeff47]

10. Hey! It's the same PPP that said Clinton was up by 8% in IA!

Surely their national polls will be just as accurate!

[DCBob]

11. “But his continued struggles with African Americans could give him a lot of trouble.."

..when the contest moves beyond New Hampshire to states where there’s racial diversity."

So is this also Hillary playing the race card??

[MoonRiver]

12. It is reality.

Most AAs do not support Bernie.