The myth of the extremely liberal New Hampshire.

[Bubzer]

It's the new meme; New Hampshire is EXTREMELY LIBERAL... so fringe...so disconnected from the average American!!!

Except....they're not. New Hampshire is actually run-of-the-mill, everyday-average kind of people, regarding political ideology.



So, preloading this idea that the formerly fringe-candidate can only win fringe states?

It's a loser before it even began.

[TwilightGardener]

1. This is the first year they've ever been that liberal, then. I thought they were

the fiercely independent "don't tread on me" state. Thought that's why they loved Johnnie Mac.

[Skinner]

2. No, it's not extremely liberal.

But the New Hampshire Democratic party is something of an outlier compared to the Democratic party in the rest of the country...

[Bubzer]

4. If anything, that points to just how far to the right we've allowed the party to be pulled.

And how important it is that we get a candidate that will correct some of those leanings.
I don't believe Hillary would be the candidate to do that.

[mythology]

29. So the evidence that shows you're wrong you choose to

Misinterpret to claim it supports your theory. You are wrong based on evidence. I'm sorry you don't like it, but there is no evidence that the parties are moving closer together. In fact the evidence is that the parties are moving apart.

http://io9.gizmodo.com/its-been-150-years-since-the-u-s-was-this-politically-1590076355

[Bubzer]

30. You might want to take another look at either the person you're responding to...

or what I posted. Nothing I've said disagrees with you.

[Betty Karlson]

7. Yes, let's re-ignite that racism charge again. Because all white voters think alike, right?

Can you even fathom how desperate your attempted argument sounds at this point?

[Skinner]

9. I didn't call anyone racist. (nt)

[Bubzer]

11. You did link an image that pointedly displays white people as a break out.

You also know full well the allegation floating around accusing Bernie supporters as being white liberal racists.
You don't have to call someone a racist to benefit from those who will.

[Skinner]

17. Pointing out that members of different demographic groups...

...sometimes tend to support different candidates isn't exactly a controversial thing to say. I'm sure everyone here on DU already knows it to be true.

[Betty Karlson]

12. My apologies: racism seemed implied. It was not outright stated.

When you imply that Sanders has no appeal across racial lines, you:

a) imply that racial lines are sharp, not blurred (interracial marriages are more and more common these days)
b) imply that people vote by the colour of their skin, rather than by the strength of their individual convictions
c) ignore the steadily increasing appeal Sanders's racial justice platform has to People of any Colour

Alternatively, it could be inferred that somehow, results from Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter because of the colour of the skins of the majority of the people there.

And frankly, I don't like either interpretation of your contribution to this discussion. What am I missing?

[Bubzer]

18. I wholeheartedly agree

[Skinner]

21. I did not say (or imply) that Sanders has no appeal across racial lines.

Also I did not say (or imply) that the results from Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter.

[Betty Karlson]

22. Well, I'm glad we have cleared that up then. eom

[mythology]

31. You're looking to be offended

Sanders has a level of support among minorities that isn't conducive to winning the nomination.

It's not racist nor is it suggesting that all minorities think the same to point that out.

It's actually pretty offensive to say so because you're questioning somebody's personal integrity when you make that charge and don't have anything to support it.

[BainsBane]

55. His point was obvious, that NH is not representative of America

It is not particularly liberal but it is particularly white. The citing of that basic census data does not oppress white people.

The notion that Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of America is a point that is beyond obvious. It is an exceedingly common critique of the way the current primary contests are structured. That is a point anyone remotely familiar with politics has heard. I expect you yourself have heard it a number of times and never before objected UNTIL now when, it seems, you fear your chosen candidate will not perform as well beyond those two states. Absent that belief, your reaction makes no sense.

The Democratic Party is a coalition of subaltern groups: African Americans, Latinos, women, and to a far lesser extent white men. That is the reality of this party and has been since the mid-1960s. Democrats do not deny the influence of key electoral constituencies. Instead they seek to represent them. That is not to say that all people of a given group vote the same way, but there are indeed electoral patterns which anyone casually familiar with exit poll data knows.

If you want to criticize someone for assuming people of color vote based on race, take it up with Bernie, since he made that very claim in an NPR interview in 2014. http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2014/11/19/365024592/sen-bernie-sanders-on-how-democrats-lost-white-voters

I think we know, however, that those sort of comments aren't what bother you. Rather, you seek to enforce an information-free zone in which you are not to be reminded of the existence of other Americans who may see their interests as distinct from yours and vote accordingly.

People of color, particularly African Americans and Latinos, play a significant role in the Democratic Party. They have formed organizations and political groups to use their voting influence for the benefit of their communities. They have every right to do so, and your efforts to enforce a silence about their very existence is the sort of thing one sees on the far right of the GOP. It is certainly not in keeping with the Democratic Party, which celebrates difference rather than seeking to deny or erase it.

[cali]

34. No, but that is the obvious inference

[bettyellen]

35. Nope, discussing demographics is not accusing anyone of being racist. So sick of that shit being

flung here. It is repulsive.

[Bubzer]

37. As repulsive as the term White Liberal Racist?

[PotatoChip]

15. And the interesting thing about that, in my opinion,

is the fact that the two whitest states in the nation (Maine and Vermont) chose Barack Obama by over 59% in the 2008 democratic presidential primaries.

Meanwhile, NH with a little more diversity than the 2 I mentioned-- chose Hillary Clinton in 2008.

But I'm not really understanding why race has anything to do with this, anyway.

[AlbertCat]

64. But I'm not really understanding why race has anything to do with this, anyway.

Because in June the GOP brought it up.... this very meme.... and even Skinner is now championing it.

[bvf]

41. Yes, let's confine ourselves to white voters

while not saying so except to include the fine print in the graphic.

And what's with the 16-year-old data?

[Skinner]

45. The Data is 8 years old -- it's from the last contested Democratic presidential primary.

Which would probably the most relevant data set available if we are trying to learn about the Democratic presidential primary.

As for the part about confining ourselves to white voters -- that would be the exact opposite point to the one I was actually making.

[Bubzer]

47. Except we're not trying to learn about the Democratic presidential primary.

That's not what the OP is about. It's about the composition of voters that make up New Hampshire, and rebuffing the outlandish notion that the state is overwhelmingly liberal.

[Skinner]

49. Of course we are talking about the Democratic primary.

It's not a coincidence that we are talking about New Hampshire four days before the primary.

[Bubzer]

53. No, you're talking about the Democratic primary.

I'm talking about the false meme that's being circulated.
The difference is slight, yet important.

You would have this discussion framed as being about the primary... However, it's my OP, not yours.
The discussion is about calling out yet another attack against Bernie.

[Skinner]

58. The reason you consider the ideological makeup of New Hampshire to be an attack on Bernie...

...is because we are about to hold a presidential primary in New Hampshire and you don't want the outcome to be dismissed or discounted.

But the problem for your argument is that the overall ideological makeup of New Hampshire is irrelevant to the outcome of the Democratic primary.

[Bubzer]

61. Of course the ideological makeup of New Hampshire matters. Just as it does in every state.

To claim otherwise is disingenuous.

I don't consider the ideological makeup of New Hampshire to be an attack. I consider the attempt to conflate NH as being extremely liberal (one might even say, an outlier or fringe state), which it's very clearly not, as an attempt to marginalize Bernie Sanders. That IS an attack... regardless of your implied lack of agreement.

"the overall ideological makeup of New Hampshire is irrelevant to the outcome of the Democratic primary." I don't agree. Not even a little.

Voters registered “undeclared” make up a plurality, nearly 44 percent, of people on the New Hampshire rolls. That’s significantly more than registered Democrats (26 percent) or Republicans (30 percent). And unlike other states, New Hampshire allows independent voters to select one party’s ballot on Primary Day without changing their voter registration.

A new study of undeclared New Hampshire voters — conducted this past weekend by the MassINC Polling Group for WBUR-FM, the Boston NPR affiliate — finds roughly a third of those undeclared voters say they haven’t decided which party primary they’ll choose. And where those voters end up has a major effect on the candidates at the top of each field: Sanders and Trump.

Among independents surveyed by MassINC, Sanders by far has the best favorability ratings. And while Sanders and Trump are both native New Yorkers making populist appeals in their respective races, registered independents don’t have nearly as charitable a view of the real-estate magnate.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-2016-republicans-trump-218042

As I said before, this is an attempt to Marginalize Bernie Sanders... which does has further reaching implications than just New Hampshire... but the focus of my OP is on the attack itself rather than "trying to learn about the Democratic presidential primary", as you suggested.

[Skinner]

62. We are talking in circles.

I think I'm done here.

[Bubzer]

63. I have a different interpretation.

Have a good one.

[bvf]

52. Excuse my double vision, sorry.

But what point were you making again by excluding non-white voters?

[Skinner]

59. I'm not excluding non-white voters.

I happen to think they are a vital part of the Democratic coalition.

The chart shows the share of the Democratic primary electorate which is white and liberal. These are the people who have, so far, shown themselves to be most enthusiastic about Bernie Sanders. The obvious point being that the demographics of the Democratic primary electorate in New Hampshire (and also Iowa and Vermont) is an outlier that is much more white and liberal than the Democratic primary electorate nationwide.

You can easily figure out the non-white proportion of the primary electorate in each state by subtracting the percentage of white voters from 100.

[HereSince1628]

48. I think that graphic is not reflecting race by political party

and isn't what is really important to this argument the make up of those who vote in NH democratic primary?

I note this because that graphic is clearly not correct for WI democratic party and the 87 percent white for Wisconsin actually looks like race by population of the state as recorded in the US census http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55000.html

Blacks are a significant proportion of the party here, although their participation rate is lower in non-general elections

[Skinner]

50. The label says that it shows the share of the vote...

...from the 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

[HereSince1628]

51. It may say that, but it's pretty clearly not correct for WI.

[Skinner]

57. Here's a CNN exit poll showing 86% white

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#WIDEM

[JonLeibowitz]

5. The state can be a swing state while the constituency of the democratic party is very liberal.

That is no contradiction. Same in reverse (likely, even!) for the Republicans. Why do you think Trump is doing well there?

However, NH is full of intelligent independent-minded people who think about the issues and if that means they are further left, so be it.

[Warren Stupidity]

24. That is a possibility. However there is little

evidence that New Hampshire democrats are more liberal than other democrats in the northeast.

[JaneyVee]

6. I always thought it was fairly reddish.

[DanTex]

8. The Dems are very white and liberal. How hard is it to understand that the primary

electorate is not the same as the general electorate?

[Bubzer]

13. And that has what to do with my post?

[DanTex]

14. Presumably you're talking about the upcoming NH primaries, in which case the people voting

will in fact be very liberal and very white.

[Bubzer]

16. The color of their skin is irrellevent and the composition of NH is anything but universally liberal

So again, that has what to do with my post?

[DanTex]

19. Well, it just so happens that white liberals break for Bernie more than any other demographic.

And since that's who makes up the NH primary electorate, I'd say it's pretty relevant. What was the point of your OP?

[Bubzer]

23. So your contention is white liberals make up the whole NH primary electorate?

Yeah... okay. Enjoy your dead meme.

[JonLeibowitz]

25. Facts are unimportant.

Just today in the NYT I read that Sanders needs to broaden his appeal to NH independents after his showing in Iowa. That despite Iowa independents breaking for Sanders by ~40 points, I recall.

Facts are unimportant.

[Bubzer]

27. Right! It's an up-is-down, right-is-left world... and if that doesn't work, character assasination!

[DanTex]

26. Looking forward to your next OP. "The myth of the round earth"

[Bubzer]

28. ...

[Vinca]

10. NH is many things, but liberal isn't one of them.

We're infested with teabaggers, "free staters" and a bunch of far right Republicans who remind you of the nutcases most often seen in the south. One of my neighbors is an Ayn Rand fanatic. Another is a gun nut. There are pockets of liberalism, sure, but overall it's a state that is more red than blue.

[JaneyVee]

20. Thats how I always remembered it.

Granted I havent been to NH since Bush was Prez. But it seemed like a sea of red. Pretty sure I even saw a few militia crazies.

[mythology]

32. And those peoples will be voting in the Republican primary

The New Hampshire Democratic primary electorate is more white and liberal than all but two states, Iowa and Vermont.

[elias49]

46. Don't forget the (flailing) Libertarian contingent.

I've lived in NH since 1975. I've never thought of it as particularly liberal. The only statewide newspaper is and has been forever the infamous Manchester Union Leader. I'd be interested to know how 538 collected their numbers.

[Vinca]

60. There are lots of people here who call themselves Libertarians.

My Ayn Rand neighbor (who actually has a license plates indicating same) was a huge fan of Rand Paul. I think they have a secret sign - maybe you've seen it over your way. It's a wood pallet painted to look like an American flag that sits at the end of the driveway. At least they're recycling. LOL.

[cali]

33. I'm beginning to wonder if people aren't confusing NH with VT

[Godhumor]

36. Your graph is of the entire state ideology; not just those voting in the primary

Huge difference. NH Democratic voters are more liberal than average by a large margin.

[Bubzer]

38. Sure. Fine. Lets look at voters.

http://www.270towin.com/states/New_Hampshire

I don't know what you're quantifying as a large margin, but that looks nothing like an extremely liberal state to me.
In fact, that seems pretty close to even.

[Godhumor]

39. Again, you're comparing Republicans to Democrats

Within only the Democratic population, the one that will vote in the primary, NH Democratic voters are much more likely to be liberal than Democratic voters in any other state except Vermont and Iowa.

[Bubzer]

40. Did you even bother to read the OP? Seriously?

Where did I give you even the slightest suggestion I was talking about only Dems? Hmm? It's my OP... so I get to do things like compare Republicans to Democrats.

"Again, you're comparing Republicans to Democrats"... it's a minor thing, but I'm annoyed, so I'm gonna point it out anyway... you generally don't say "again" if you didn't do it a first time.

[Godhumor]

42. Because your OP isn't factual for the primary. It isn't a myth

The population for the primary is extremely liberal, which is why it favors Bernie.

[Bubzer]

44. According to what? Your opinion? You've been large on that, and short on evidence.

I hope you don't expect me to take your word as proof.
This Gallup poll says your wrong, but I'll entertain whatever you've got that says otherwise.

I'll even go so far as to retract this OP if you can provide sufficient enough proof. Now, just to be clear here, I wont accept more opinion as evidence... it needs to be more substantial than that. A more recent (and pertinent) national polling on par with this Gallup poll would do. I also wont accept fly-by-night websites... meaning no word-press-blogs or anything similar.

Oh, and one more thing... this challenge is to you, exclusively.

So, how about it? Accept my challenge?

[jfern]

43. In 1988, it was George HW Bush's 2nd best state

And that was despite the Democrat, Dukakis, being from the neighboring state of Massachusetts.

[Agschmid]

54. I love my state :)

[olddots]

56. people who think New Hampshire is liberal

have never been to New Hampshire .