2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCNN Poll: Obama By 3 Points Nationally
President Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent amongst likely voters in a new national poll from CNN. Obama led Romney by 6 points in CNN polling from mid-September, 52 percent to 46 percent. "That's a strong suggestion that whatever bounce President Obama received from his convention has, as expected, faded away," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland told their website. "That's why they call them 'bounces'."
While Obama's lead has receeded slightly there is no enthusiasm gap in the poll -- 64 percent of registered Democrats are excited to vote in November, while 65 percent of Republicans feel the same. From their analysis:
When it comes to issues, the survey indicates that Obama and Romney are effectively tied when likely voters are asked which candidate would best handle the economy. Romney, however, appears to have an edge on the top two economic issues: unemployment and the budget deficit. Obama, by contrast, has the advantage on a variety of non-economic domestic issues such as education, Medicare and health care, and also polls strongly on taxes, traditionally a GOP issue.
The PollTracker Average of the national race shows the president with a 3.8 percent lead.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/cnn-poll-obama-by-3-points-nationally
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It appears Romney has weathered the 47% comment pretty well. It doesn't seem to be nearly as damaging as we initially all expected.
PATRICK
(12,228 posts)I agree. The "tightening" actually will be used later as the desperate search for pretext tries out one fantasy after another. Mucho millions of TV ads are at stake. That matters more than playing the margin of error way to the Romney side to enable the 5% theft solution to give him a chance.
When it gets really razor thin with or without cheating they cannot help but show their cheating in broad daylight. As actually they have been because they KNOW it is not close and in fairness has never been. The scary thing is that there have been very few(no) consequences for vote theft, caught or not.
I'd say if the vote was fair and the media even just silent for a month the margin is now indicated at 8% plus as a national total. Brainwashed proud looneytunes regions excepted of course, but they have managed to lose actual votes there too.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I'd really like to see the demos compared to the previous poll. I can't see what Romney has done recently to close the gap?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)We just spent a whole week mocking Republicans for questioning the polls...let's not do it the second polls show Obama losing his lead. It makes us look just as desperate as they are.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)and what has happened since Friday to have this sudden surge of support toward Romney?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)You can't compare two different polls. CNN's last poll came out the week after the Democratic Convention, which was, what, three weeks ago? We don't know at what point he lost those three-percent. It might've been a couple weeks ago, it could've been last week - certainly it didn't come after Friday.
It could be Libya. It could be the worsening economic indicators. It could be statistical noise. It could be that the convention bounce has officially run its course and we're right back to pre-convention polling, which had Obama up very narrowly. It could be a whole range of things.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I really do. This shows me that there really isn't much difference between liberals and conservatives ... outside ideology. They all whine about the same things. They all say the same things. Last week, everyone on DU mocked Republicans for suggesting the polls were bias and skewed against Romney ... and now liberals here on DU are doing the exact same thing they were! How fucking hilarious is that?
So, last week the polls were right ... this week they're wrong?
TheMastersNemesis
(10,602 posts)Thrill
(19,178 posts)And will make sure they get out the vote.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)it looks like Romney is surging.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Both Robme and Lyin' Ryan's favorability ratings are in the toilet.
And they want us to believe that this race is close? Really?