2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSource: TPM reporting that polls are narrowing
....two surveys released Monday showed the race reverting to the neck-and-neck status
- snip -
New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result.
rfranklin
(13,200 posts)I don't believe those skewed polls for a minute.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Obama is above 47% around 30 times or more in that same period.
This is for all national polls as gathered by realclear.
brush
(53,784 posts)The President's lead in the battleground states are what's most important. He's got a lead in all of them, and in some it's close to 10 points. Romney has to win all of the battleground states, which is a very, very long shot. I don't think it will happen.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)But Gallup was +6 for Obama.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)close enough to steal.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)graham4anything
(11,464 posts)national vote is not important
Obama can lose wyoming 100percent to zero and win NY by one vote
the electoral votes is all that matters.
Blue Idaho
(5,049 posts)The popular vote does not elect the President, the Electoral College does. The popular vote is only important if it supports the M$M meme that this election is a real "down to the wire" "horse race" - That meme does more to drive up the cost of political advertising and viewership of political talking heads TV programs than providing any real substantial news.
There is a reason the vast majority of Americans no longer trust the M$M to deliver honest and unbiased news - shit like this is just one example.
jenmito
(37,326 posts)I suspect it's that 40-point deficit Obama is battling in the handful of crazy red states. We shall see.
jenmito
(37,326 posts)Cosmocat
(14,565 posts)A significant positive event (the dem convention) bumped it up positively a bit, and it started to dip a bit. A major Romney gaffe (47%) built on the remnants of the convention boost. There was always likely to be a bit of a draw back.
it isn't like it was going to keep growing at the same rate and BO win 95% to 5%.
Just keep plugging.
budkin
(6,703 posts)SKEWED POLLS!!!
Mass
(27,315 posts)Obviously, we would like Obama to be up by 10, but even though it is a close race, Obama is still up. Even Rasmussen has Obama up by 3.
Also, what is the source you are quoting. The polls are there for everybody to see. Just go and look by yourself.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)courseofhistory
(801 posts)He still gives Obama great odds but he has reduced the percentage by some tenths of a point. Also, Romney is now ahead in NC by a very slight margin so it's rated a tossup again by many organizations. RCP average has gone down 2 days in a row from 4.1 to a current 3.5. The popular vote poll percentage has increased, however to 52.1% vs. 46.6% for Romeny. This bothers me. I'll have to read more of this article and tomorrow's to see what the reasons are for the decrease in odds (very small though) and the increase in the National vote. It may be in the rest of the article which I'm too tired to read right now.
What do others think?
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
As of Mondays FiveThirtyEight forecast, there were 21 states that Barack Obama was projected to have at least an 85 percent chance of winning on Nov. 6. The list includes three important states, Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, where Mr. Obamas polling has improved by an especially clear margin since the Democratic convention. It did not include several others, however, where he is favored, but less definitively so, such as Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Florida.
If Mr. Obamas overall standing holds in its current position, he should have no trouble winning some of those states, perhaps along with others like North Carolina. But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then wed be left with the following map:
Go to link to see map and read the rest of the article!
If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie. The election would then be thrown to the House of Representatives, which would cast votes based on the provisions of the 12th Amendment.
[link:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/|
This is the map referred to and the probablilty chart still looks really good for Obama (on the right).
[img][/img]
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)At the very worst he'd pick up two of the six if something caused him to tank (crosses fingers). In that map the only swing states they have Obama winning are Colorado, Virginia and (depending on your opinion whether it is a swing state, which I think it isn't) Wisconsin.
renate
(13,776 posts)... I'm guessing that if these numbers are even real they reflect some kind of sampling glitch than an actual tightening of the race.
If Romney had had an awesome day lately and Obama had had a bad one, I'd be a teeny bit concerned, but with Romney's campaign being so breathtakingly bad, it's pretty tempting to assume that there hasn't actually been a shift in mood.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)They are going to fluctuate.
And the reality is that we are a divided nation. Even if Romney's campaign crashes, 45% of this country will vote AGAINST Obama simply because they hate him for one reason or another.
Just hope for an electoral victory. A popular vote landslide that some here are hoping for would be extremely unlikely considering the political make-up of this country. In fact its possible Obama could lose the popular vote. None of the big polling outfits are giving him over 50% even with a bumbling Romney campaign.
LiberalFighter
(50,942 posts)They aren't!
What matters are the numbers for each state and their electoral votes.
Oklahoma could 80% Rmoney and the rest of the states 60% for Obama. I go with that because Oklahoma doesn't have very many votes.
It's just like looking at the map and seeing them colored in for the expected winner. And then going oh no because it looks so red. Only because most of the states are much smaller in population.