We Ask America Poll: Obama within two-points in Missouri (senate race tied)

[WI_DEM]

48-46 Romney

Missouri
The Show Me State has shown America a fair amount of political upheaval in the last 12 months. One of the first states to legislatively reject federal health care reforms, its popular Democratic Senator got into hot water over not paying property taxes for a family-owned jet. To face McCaskill this fall, Missouri Republicans elected Todd Aiken–the candidate many felt was the weakest on the ballot. Still, most experts put Missouri’s Senate seat in the Democratic loss column…until Aiken’s infamous use of the term “legitimate rape” in an interview. That quote put Aiken on the GOP’s persona non grata list and it was assumed that McCaskill would breeze to a win. But Aiken has hung in and made it a horse race–undoubted aided by the fact that Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in another tight race:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,145Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.9%
PRESIDENT Barack Obama Mitt Romney Gary Johnson Undecided
ALL VOTERS 44.5% 47.7% 2.0% 5.8%
GOP ONLY 12.7% 82.6% 1.2% 3.5%
DEM ONLY 86.1% 9.8% 0.3% 3.8%
IND ONLY 35.3% 51.4% 4.1% 9.2%
****** ****** ****** ****** ******
SENATE Claire McCaskill (D) Todd Aiken (R
Undecided
ALL VOTERS 46.0% 45.2% 8.8%
GOP ONLY 12.5% 78.8% 8.7%
DEM ONLY 87.4% 8.0% 4.6%
IND ONLY 39.0% 48.6% 12.4%

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/02/horse-races/

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Romney apparently just pulled everything out of Missouri to focus on Florida

That tells me that their internals contradict this poll.

[Jennicut]

4. I think they believe they have Missouri and don't need to spend money there.

Which is probably correct. They feel they need to spend money somewhere more important to them. I would love for us to get Missouri but I think that is a long shot this year. It seems to be going more red. Akin is such a poor candidate and that is why McCaskill still has a chance.

[WI_DEM]

5. Yes, I would agree that MO is probably leaning more towards Mitt

than this poll indicates.

[TroyD]

2. Not good if Akin is tied with McCaskill

I would have thought he would be behind.

WeAskAmerica leans-GOP, yes? I'm going to assume this Akin poll is an outlier. The others I've seen recently have McCaskill ahead.

And McCaskill winning is probably more important than Obama winning MO.

[WI_DEM]

3. Well...

if it is a GOP leaning poll it's other numbers yesterday and today (including having Obama up by 10 in Nevada) are surprising in that they don't seem to be having a pro-Romney effect. Even this Missouri poll ONLY has Romney up by 2 and presumably the same people they poll on the presidential race they are polling on the senate race. So if it's a GOP leaning poll it's a strange one.

[TroyD]

6. I'm speaking from memory

Btw, Romney is basically up by 3 in this poll (that's the way RCP rounds it off), but it's still a 6-point drop from the +9 lead in Missouri that Romney had in the July poll for WeAskAmerica.