We Ask America Poll: Obama leads by 10 in Nevada/ Senate race tied

[WI_DEM]

Nevada
Nevada’s race for president can’t be considered close (although it’s not over, either), but the race for U.S. Senate is among the tightest we’ve seen lately. Incumbent Republican Dean Heller is said to be running a textbook race against Democrat U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley, who has been under a cloud from an ethics investigation. Still, Nevada has been leaning left lately, so Berkley is nipping at Heller’s heels and most believe it will be a race to the wire:

Poll type: Automated Date: Sept. 25-27, 2012 - Participants: 1,078 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.1%
PRESIDENT Barack Obama Mitt Romney Gary Johnson Undecided
ALL VOTERS 52.5% 42.0% 2.3% 3.2%
GOP ONLY 18.7% 78.2% 1.5% 1.6%
DEM ONLY 86.4% 11.8% 0.2% 1.6%
IND ONLY 35.3% 50.7% 5.7% 8.3%
****** ****** ****** ****** ******
SENATE Dean Heller (R) Shelley Berkley (D) Undecided
ALL VOTERS 45.2% 44.9% 9.9%
GOP ONLY 81.3% 13.8% 4.9%
DEM ONLY 14.7% 76.7% 8.6%
IND ONLY 54.7% 28.0% 17.3%


http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/02/horse-races/

[TroyD]

1. Solid NV number for Obama, but the Senate number is more important

Most people predicted Berkley would lose to Heller, but if she can win, that's another Senate seat and probably a guaranteed Majority.

[WI_DEM]

2. yes, and remember in 2010 polls in Nevada under performed Democratic strength

Reid has a great GOTV operation in Nevada and I'm sure he will use it for Berkley.

[TexasCPA]

3. RCP is a joke

They seem to manipulate their information. Prior to NV they would move a state into "leans" at a 5% lead. They seem to not want to put Obama above 270 votes. They also seem inconsistent on when they take polls out of their average. I don't know if they are partisan, but I do think they are trying to make the election look a little closer than what it is to drive traffic up on their site.