Something strange in the polls?

[woolldog]

I just noticed that in just about every poll I can remember, Obama is losing independents. Isn't that odd? Does anyone find it odd that he's losing independents in every poll but still winning?

Didn't Obama win independents in 2008? And why isn't he winning them now?

Not sure what to make of it.

[still_one]

1. I am not sure what they mean by independents. One group he is winning is women. I would assume

independents should be independent of gender

[woolldog]

3. Perhaps there aren't that many independent women?

[TroyD]

2. Yes, I asked about it on a thread earlier today, too

And someone said that many of these 'Independents' are Republicans who are apparently too embarrassed to identify as such.

Nevertheless, I find it disturbing that Romney doesn't seem to have lost much support with them in some polls and still has a narrow lead considering all the vile things he has done and said about the American people this year.

[woolldog]

5. hmmm ok

that would be a pretty decent explanation.

Didn't see you asking about that earlier. Im bothered by it too.

[TroyD]

6. I mentioned it at #2 on the Quinnipiac thread earlier today

But it's certainly fine to bring it up again. It needs more discussion to determine what is going on.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251114771

[JDPriestly]

4. A lot of people, especially men, register as independents, but can be depended upon to vote

Republican. They just don't want to declare themselves.

[Scootaloo]

7. Perhaps there are fewer and fewer declared independents each time?

Say there are 1,000 "independents." Let's say they are evenly split, 50/50 for Obama and Romney.

When a second poll comes around, 250 of those Independents have decided, "fuck it, I'm going Democrat when they ask me again."

The polls now show 75% of declared independents favor Romney, a 25% gain; but Obama's numbers haven't slipped, nor have Romney's grown.

Another 250 make a similar decision i nthe third poll, "fuck it, I'm going Republican!"

Now, Independents are once again vying 50/50 between the two candidates... what a dramatic horse race this is!

[Cicada]

9. I think some tea partiers say they are indepedets

[quaker bill]

10. Remember the "poll skewing" thing?

Apparently with each sample, more and more folks are calling themselves "democrats". As the pool of independents shrinks, it is apparently also becoming more republican. This would make statistical sense.