2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTHE WORM HAS TURNED: Barring unforeseeable events, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/7/1481253/-THE-WORM-HAD-TURNED-Barring-unforeseeable-events-Bernie-Sanders-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee
The Clinton campaign is collapsing. Built for an outdated presidential race from the past two decades, it underestimated the changing times, a unique opponent, and increasingly savvy voters.
The campaign's first mistake was to take the traditional approach of sitting on a lead. Certainly, it would have seemed a safe bet. The party's elected politicians would rally to her as the presumptive nomineeand they did. Donors were lined up for a big hauland they gave. The media would willingly marginalize Sandersand they tried. And the voters could be quickly frightened with specters of Republicans into sticking with the establishment candidatebut they weren't.
Despite every institutional advantage and a made-to-order GOP horror show, voters could not be scared away from Sanders. The more intently the machine insisted upon Clinton, the more suspect Clinton became. And now her campaign is out of options.
There are no more endorsements left to get. She's squandered her financial advantage by outspending Sanders by many times in Iowa, only to tie. Her big donors must be maxing out in direct contributions, leaving Super PACs as the only vehicle through which she can make up the losses (less than ideal optics). And the media has already stooped so low in its dismissal of Sanders that there is no credible room left to expand that endeavor. At this point, Chris Matthews would literally have to beg viewers to vote Clinton in order to outdo his current advocacy.
On unfamiliar territory and feeling desperate, the inflexible campaign made the second mistake of doubling down on its voter containment strategy
NowSam
(1,252 posts)Because that's where we are at.
gyroscope
(1,443 posts)that it would be almost impossible for 'em to cheat and get away with it.
everyone bring your cellphones and cameras - record and document everything that goes on at the polls.
the empire won't give up their power easily and we have to assume they will do anything and everything to hold on to it including election fraud.
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)election fraud is a very real possibility and we'd be remiss not to prepare for it.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,871 posts)Include the other 49 states that have yet to vote? In that case, the OP is correct. Otherwise, it is delusional.
Seems people are getting a teensy bit ahead of themselves here.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)Whom are you addressing?
John Poet
(2,510 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)Excellent ideas.
Stevepol
(4,234 posts)at every precinct if possible and get it time-marked. If the so-called results don't match the probable outcome considering the composition of the precinct or the results of any exit polling, there's then something to serve as a guide as to which precincts are the most likely to have been red shifted the most.
gyroscope
(1,443 posts)Everyone working at the polls should be doing this, as well as the voters armed with their cellphone cameras.
The more recordings we have the better.
questionseverything
(9,657 posts)and the machine reports only 200 votes
theoretically we have the power to do this, it cost nothing but a trip back to your precinct at closing time
chervilant
(8,267 posts)And, you know what? I trust our technology-savvy younglings to continue to use social media, cell phones, and every other device to help insure that the corporate oligarchs' malfeasance is recorded and addressed.
Go, Bernie!!!!
#NotMeUs
eppur_se_muova
(36,281 posts)... I was told they might cause interference with the digital voting machines.
caraher
(6,279 posts)What a joke! If digital voting machines were truly that delicate... well, that's another story!
eppur_se_muova
(36,281 posts)kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Extreme vigilance is a must.
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)I actually disagreed with her on this. It's not Bernie's doing. Usually Dems sit back and watch Republicans shoot themselves in the foot. In this case watching Hillary supporters come out and say women who aren't rooting for hillary are going to Hell might have just shot the rest of her foot feet off. Basically They tried so hard to cheat in Iowa they failed. Ended up in a tie, margin of error tie. And when you start resorting to Tea Party tactics of your going to hell because you voted for so and so (my dad did it twice, yelled and screamed at mom and I for doing so) she basically made sure she can't win in November and that is a bigger problem than facing Bernie.. Bernie's has taken the hard route. The SLOW, and LONG hard route. I know I wasn't for Hillary at all but I did not expect people to root for Bernie the way it ended up being. She was pushing a debunked myth that Black Voters voted for Obama because he's black. Which is not and never was the case. Yes in some cases it is true some married women vote the way their husbands do. (relatives I know won't say who) But He came around and went Obama the final 2. Nevermind the absurd Hillary supporters here Banning DU members left and right for whatever reason. DU I think is a major site. Banning people and basically saying we don't want your vote was just dumb. I keep expecting the day I'll get banned from DU because Hillary controls the site. Except she doesn't , banning people from their little group really upset some of us and quickly backfired. True don't have a problem with being banned off the Atheist board. 70 % I get along with but there's this 30 % that are very loud and I get into trouble fast with the loud ones. Better for my health I don't see that stuff.
mark67
(196 posts)I'll probably get "juried" by those with thin skins in 3-2-1 for this post but I hope that (1) if selected he can actually win and (2) if selected he can actually get something done in office...
Howard Dean...John Kerry...George McGovern...Al Gore (I know he was cheated in Florida but he basically just rolled over)
1. I'll vote Democrat whether Hillary or Bernie but if it is Bernie I hope he can actually win. They'll portray him as a Mr. McGoo/cranky uncle caricature supported by naïve $10 donation college age supporters vs. a "masters of the universe" guy like Trump. And for all those "my Republican uncle/neighbor/co-worker" now supports Sanders, I would take that with a grain of salt. These types are mostly motivated by a hatred of Clinton...doubt many of these will actually cross over to actually vote Democrat. Kind of like Democratic types who like Rand Paul but would never actually vote for him.
2. If actually elected, does he actually have a power base to get anything done...political allies...like FDR who was a political gangster/power player but for the right causes. Or will he receive the same type/or worse opposition than Obama has received.
3. Here's the secret...if you actually study Hillary's political career/college writings/etc...she's a progressive at heart...understands power...if elected to the highest office I can assure you the gloves will come off.
I want the next president to be a Democrat. I'm too old for 4-8 years of Trump, Rubio, or God forbid, Cruz. But if it's going to be Bernie I hope he can pull it off.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)Bernie can absolutely get it done, listen to the message, it is a message of inclusion against special interest, against wall street fat cats, against the status quo, against the establishment... that means that nearly 99 percent of the American people are included in that side of the equation.... Hillary pretends like she cares about income inequality and she says we can see what she said to Goldman Sachs when she got paid more than half a million dollars for her speech, but will we really? Her trustworthiness is NIL in the GE that will hurt her extremely, Bernie brings no baggage, no cheating spouse, no emails, no failures in domestic or foreign policy.... so to me on the national stage he will win in a landslide and he will definitely get things done....
kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)I adore him (have for years) and agree with him almost 100 percent but I don't think he has a chance. Would be another McGovern situation..... Plus being a woman I would be pissed if we get another white male. Could he please have a sex change and be called a Democrat? I'd be all in.
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)the Cold War shouldn't be something that shapes our fears of people unless their last name is Reagan or Bush.
Joe Chi Minh
(15,229 posts)they have discovered there is a place called Europe, whose right wing would seem Marxist in the US. And Scandinavian paradises built on decades of Socialist policies.
mdbl
(4,973 posts)I miss that Hillary. When she was against the wall as Senator, she triangulated. Why would I trust the same won't happen when she is president?
FarPoint
(12,428 posts)The game has just begun.....
Metric System
(6,048 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)Wasn't Hillary leading by massive margins nationally just a few weeks ago nationally?
Kiss it good bye. It's now dead even.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSMTZSAPEC253J02S1
How many states (besides NH) can you name where Bernie's beating Hill?
pinebox
(5,761 posts)Check it. That's 2 polls now saying it.
OhZone
(3,212 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)just two days before the caucuses.
jfern
(5,204 posts)I always knew they were far too pro Hillary.
Response to Metric System (Reply #3)
Post removed
shawn703
(2,702 posts)But it won't be too long after that before she suspends her campaign.
shenmue
(38,506 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)back.
malokvale77
(4,879 posts)( The majority of them are clueless and I empathize sincerely)"
You're such a hoot.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)The media are doing it too. Trying to say Trump and Sanders are the same, and that we're all just soooooo angryyyyy!
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Right it's still more likely HRC is the nominee.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Hillary's on shaky ground but still the favorite to win the nomination.
This thing is a long way from being over for either candidate (unless the FBI ask for a serious indictment)
FarPoint
(12,428 posts)Her foundation is secure.....powerful, prepared.... Dominant.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)wordpix
(18,652 posts)her house is about to fall.
californiabernin
(421 posts)I am not sure if you are joking or serious.
406-Boz
(53 posts)Fixed it.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)So many people want a candidate who throws out the red meat and validates their anger. They show up to hear the candidate who offers that.
Obama tapped hope, Bernie is tapping anger over that unrealized hope.
Hillary' campaign does not seem to understand what happened in 2008. Maybe they are assuming the enthusiasm stemmed from making history, thus the first woman president rhetoric. Even with the historical element, she does not inspire people.
I have gotten the impression from people who have seen her in different environments that she is accessible and can generate more enthusiasm in small groups. That is a quality that makes for a good senator or SOS. But, if that's all a candidate has got, they are not well suited for a national campaign.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)This is far from over and she lost once before, don't think for a second
Clinton will not fight like hell to win. They're a very powerful political force
best not to underestimate.
lasttrip
(1,013 posts)Thanks for the post Jefferson23.
Peace.
LT
GeoWilliam750
(2,522 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)They weren't expecting any legitimate challenges to Hillary's questionable activities. When it became apparent that Bernie isn't going away and questions are being asked, they were backed into a corner and are now on the defensive. Desperation doesn't win votes, and using sexism to guilt women especially won't win votes.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Bottom line, Hillary could come in 2nd place in all 50 states and still win the nomination. Do the math.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Clearly the 2nd choice of two candidates by the people but still crowned by the establishment as the winner?
That represents Democracy to you?
TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts).
Those in power make the decisions, changing the rules and playing field, to meet the PLANNER'S Goals.
.
cannabis_flower
(3,765 posts)The ruling class always says.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)There is no winner take all delegates in any Democratic Primary.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)So when the superdelegates overturn the popular vote, why would voters help them win the general election?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)if hillary is second in every state, the delegstes will be fewer for her. please share the math that makes the lower number the winner, i would like to see it.
and if your math involves, the supers, don't bother. they will switch to the popular vote winner or risk the total destruction of the dem party.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)The vote is so 2000 don't you think? What else has she got? Albright and steinem locked younger and older women to bernie by echoing her contemptuous talking points
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)it will be the end of the dem party for decades, which is why i think they are going to try and pick off a few delegates in each state..less obvious that way.
TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts).
Sure, the math is there. But, with all of the speak of a "rigged system," this would cause a schism in the Democratic Party that has never been seen before.
.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)However, I doubt the special interests controlling the party will cede power without a scorched earth strategy. Will there be anything left worth saving?
LiberalArkie
(15,728 posts)1968 - a lot of kids either going to viet nam, coming back from viet nam or out of work and pissed that the establishment was doing nothing, pissed about RFK and MLK and nothing being done. Pissed about being serfs in the great almighty Merica.
2016 - ditto, change a few names and events but the pissed off is still there.
And Hillary still has all those super delegates so even if O'Malley was still in the race and HRC was in third, she would still win.
It might be an interesting convention.
safeinOhio
(32,714 posts)of adding women to sign up for the draft in last nights debate......food for thought......makes the neocons look even more dangerous to the youth.
HubertHeaver
(2,522 posts)Charleston, Sc, 1860.
Glamrock
(11,802 posts)She loses the general. No way she can win with half of the party sitting it out.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)I think a lot of Democrats say they are favoring Bernie when called by pollsters because they don't want progressives taken for granted by the HRC campaign, or because it's fun to annoy the establishment. We'll know after Super Tuesday if Bernie is a serious contender.
He's still not attacking her directly or doing anything else to risk party unity.
He's gained a lot of respect either way.
greiner3
(5,214 posts)Poor pollsters. They need to have an 'opposite' poll so as to catch all those sneaky Progressives. And good for Bernie but you know he had all those political handicaps and you can't barely see those crutches
DrDan
(20,411 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)go back to sleep
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)This one sentence, says it all!
"Built for an outdated presidential race from the past two decades, it underestimated the changing times, a unique opponent, and increasingly savvy voters."
And very quickly, so many of us could see this. But...she and her Entrenched Cushy and Elite Establishment are so arrogant that they have been clueless.
Stupefying.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)in his tracks.
Times they are a chang'in.
Go Bernie!
nolabels
(13,133 posts)In the text of the post :
" And the media has already stooped so low in its dismissal of Sanders that there is no credible room left to expand that endeavor"
Gives me somewhat of a vision of them underwater, like in a submarine with a bulldozer blade, all the while trying to figure out some way push away enough of the whale crap that is already down there in order to make extra room for all the new stuff that is coming in.
Nothing like a true ironic story to get your comedy from
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)maybe they will invent some scandal-- in fact, I'm sure something will come up if he really starts winning.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)William769
(55,147 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)that no one in America would remember Hillarys shady past.
So many questions,so few answers.
George II
(67,782 posts)........to overcome her current 380 Super Delegate lead, and that's rising every day.
That means he'll need to get more than 55% of the remaining pledged delegates, and that simply is not going to happen, especially considering that he's leading in only one other state after Tuesday, and that state only has 15 delegates.
Squinch
(50,993 posts)JPnoodleman
(454 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)they are. In 08, Hillary started with a 2 to one advantage over Obama in unpledged delegates. The largest number to switch to Obama in a 48 hour period was 50. The simple reason for that is that the vast majority of unpledged delegates hold that status because they are elected officials in office or in the Party. If elected officials scorn the will of their constituents to force their own will those elected officials might well pay the price for that by losing their elections, even being recalled. They are not so 'Super' they are simply not committed, and if you are not committed you can switch and that's the real key factor.
You really think there are many in Congress who would vote Hillary if their district voted Bernie or vice versa? I don't. A few, maybe.
21st Century Poet
(254 posts)I think Bernie Sanders has the potential to become the nominee but surely saying that Hillary's campaign is over is jumping the gun. It will be a hard slog throughout all the 50 states.
Dustlawyer
(10,497 posts)supposed to elect."
I would not celebrate yet, as Iowa proved, they can steal close contests. People underestimate the power behind all of the forces and money aligned against Bernie winning.
We have a shadow government which has been in control of our country for decades. They will not give up, ever! We must stand behind Bernie every step of the way to first get Publicly Funded Elections, then bust up Wall Street banks and the media oligarchy. We will need to find candidates willing to take the plunge and give up the campaign bribes. We will have to be united to demonstrate that the bribes will not help them.
There is a lot of work to do to get this and a myriad of other things done to rid ourselves of this corrupt system. FDR did it once, but they kept working to reverse it and they succeeded. We must remain vigilant and involved to fight their attempts to enslave us again!
Win this one or not, it may only be the spark that starts the real revolution.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)Yes. For the 1st time in aloooooong while, someone besides the GOP is creating the narrative.
If Hillary wins, we all know it's only because of name recognition.
And Sanders and his supporters will still be around to stir things up.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)Win or Lose this election, The Movement WILL continue and grow.
The Old Guard of the establishment Democratic party had better wake up,
or they WILL be kicked to the curb.
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)is apparently the new "winning," strategy.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)Someone who wasn't speaking on her behalf, er was speaking at an event HRC didn't even attend, er was barely in the same room as HRC said that.
I'm sure HRC will denounce it just as soon as the next poll numbers are announced.
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)Either way, Clinton is screwed. If she lets that ride she will enrage the youth vote and further shatter the progressive coalition against the DNC. If she does go against it, the Steinem supporters or those currently nodding their heads in agreement of her appraisal of young women's intelligence and sexual proclivities WILL be further confused and or feel betrayed.
Make no mistake, Gloria Steinem called every woman under 45 are slut, and doubly so if they are Bernie supporters. I wasn't aware calling women whores was part and parcel of the National Organization for Women's strategies but, there it is.
hueymahl
(2,510 posts)In other words, stupid, unlike she and her learned colleagues. She did not actually say women under 45 were prostitutes.
Whatever credibility she had left - BYE!
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)33taw
(2,446 posts)NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)establishment likely would not support Bernie in any regard. I suspect many will gravitate to the GOP candidate in case of a Bernie win. That's why Bernie is bringing so many new folks into the process.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)by running in their primary and promising to support Hillary if she's the nominee. He could have easily skipped the primary to run an Indy campaign and grabbed 10% of the very liberal vote required to beat the Republicans.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)Bohunk68
(1,364 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)marble falls
(57,157 posts)OhZone
(3,212 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)but I'm glad it's not a coronation and I'm glad liberals are getting a chance to vent their frustration at the banksters in this primary instead of just rolling over and accepting the inevitable.
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)What is his path. AFter he wins 14 in NH and Hillary gets 10. He's still down 45 to 1 in superdelegates and the upcoming states are overwhelming Clinton strongholds. How does he do this? Show the math.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
catnhatnh
(8,976 posts)This seems incredibly well written and reasoned. If you get a chance you might drop a note to Kos that this is a writer well worth taking a look at for a paid position with a real name.
Wibly
(613 posts)Sanders is risking peeving off the big political machine in the US, one that believes it is destined to govern.
By doing so well he's going to find out he has enemies well beyond the ranks of the GOP. The very party he's running for may be out to get him.
I'll be very surprised if he makes it to the general election. These forces do not walk away from power easily.
tblue37
(65,483 posts)They do seem to be totally dismissing Sanders voters as being unworthy of having their issues even considered. We are "outgroup," so there is no point in even speaking to us.
But I am a 65-year-old lifelong Democrat, someone who always votes *for our party's nominee*, not some nonvoting, smack-talking "Berniebro." (And I am a woman, not a "bro"!)
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Yes, barring those unforeseeable events, he will win.
40RatRod
(532 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,403 posts)In the last debate, Sanders addressed race on three occasions: 1) asked about the death penalty, he noted that innocent people of color are more likely to find their way to death row; 2) asked about our criminal justice system, he made sure to include in his answer the fact that we incarcerate mostly people of color; and 3) when responding to the Flint disaster, he asked a type of question rarely heard from a Presidential candidate: what would have happened if Flint's population was middle class and white?
Clinton said absolutely nothing about race. Well, almost nothing. At the debate's conclusion, with the last question answered, Clinton wondered aloud why there weren't opportunities to talk about race.
Thanks for the thread, NorthCarolina.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)leftcoastmountains
(2,968 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)the Clinton campaign is not "collapsing." The drama and exaggeration!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)That bodes ill for her policies (IF she manages to be elected, which is a big of considering her unelectability in the GE).
But thank Goodness, it starting to bode ill for her chances of nomination as well; just in time.
A Little Weird
(1,754 posts)But I think it is way too early to say he will be the nominee. They are going to throw everything they have at him - I expect every single state to be a battle.
I do think that if Bernie wins the popular vote but she ends up winning the race because of superdelegates then it may be the end of the democratic party.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)Hahahahaha!
So true.
Response to NorthCarolina (Original post)
stopbush This message was self-deleted by its author.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)with reports of corruption?
Beacool
(30,250 posts)Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)NNadir
(33,541 posts)There's no sense in having them when a guy at Daily Kos has already declared the winner.
I don't even know why we have elections; we have great blogs to tell us everything we need to know.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)ThreeWayFanny
(80 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)At this point, I have hope, and more than hope as I see his campaign continuing to gain momentum while Clinton's campaign does not.
I see the increasingly vicious, and increasingly ludicrous, nonsensical, and hypocritical attacks as evidence that the status quo is deeply worried.
I believe the time is now for the change that we have been yearning for since the neo-liberals took over the bus.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)...sure is "collapsing".
Bohunk68
(1,364 posts)and that they will go to hell for not voting for Hillary, that is really going to work. You should see my various nieces, who all live below the Mason-Dixon line, fb posts the past two days. They are pissed off and will piss on a certain candidate. Now, share some laughing on the floor emoticons with them.
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)They're half right.
bvf
(6,604 posts)wss2001
(53 posts)All of you wonderful people feeling the Bern right now I feel for you. Bernie will win New Hampshire and you'll feel on top of the world. Then when he looses state after state starting with South Carolina
you'll be freaking out...it's not fair, Hillary with her PAC money and speaking fees winning. Politics Is About Winning. Period. Too many times Democrats
prefer the perfect for the good. Ideal vs. Reality.
Get real do you want a Democrat or a Republican in the White House? If Bernie wins you can kiss the White House goodbye. Like Claire McCaskill said
The Republicans wont touch him because they cant wait to run an ad with a hammer and sickle.
That is Reality that is the Truth. I wished we lived in a Country where a Bernie Sanders could be President...leave the Revolution to the Sixties and get on with reality and elect a true leader who can win... Hillary Clinton!
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)eom
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'd put his odds slightly higher than Silver does, maybe 33% or so.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]"If you're bored then you're boring." -Harvey Danger[/center][/font][hr]
Orsino
(37,428 posts)I think we already know the dangers of such assumptions.
Sanders is doing great, but he had to, just to stay alive.