2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew NH Poll: Bernie: 51% (-6) Hillary: 44% (+7)
The most striking result of the latest poll is that Clinton has begun to shrink the large lead
Sanders has held for several weeks. A week ago, Sanders had a 20-point lead over Clinton.
Today, that lead has shrunk to 7 points, with Clinton polling at 44 percent (up from 37 percent)
and Sanders polling at 51 percent (down from 57 percent). These results strongly suggest that
the race for the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire could be tightening.
Clinton's narrow Iowa victory has given her a major lift in the Granite State while Sanders now has reason to be nervous. The Vermont socialist senator was beating the former Secretary of State by a 57-37 percent margin right before the caucuses, but he now clings to just a 51-44 percent lead, according to the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 407 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Feb. 2-6.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/02/07/FPU-BH-Feb02-06-Dem_0.pdf
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/franklin_pierce_herald_poll_clinton_sanders_just_7_points_apart
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Gothmog
(145,489 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)This is going to be very very interesting!!
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Warm up the coronation hall. It's over!!
Wholly crap, is right!!
TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts)TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Suffolk and Monmouth have it -9 and -10 respectively, and Nate gives them a B and an A- .
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Even if he "wins" by just a few points, he's actually lost. This should have been a total BLOWOUT and RUNAWAY victory for him!!
Looks like people are starting to pay attention... looks like people TRUST HILLARY more and people LIKE HER PLANS more!
Honestly, I'm totally shocked! I wasn't expecting this at all!! Just like Iowa, New Hampshire is tailor made for Bernie's strengths! If he can't win there, it would be absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for him to win the general election!!
Go, Hillary! We love you!
madokie
(51,076 posts)More of the same bullshit that has us in the mess we're in today is what it is. I seriously doubt any of this is true, especially what you're saying.
Two months ago people hardly even heard of SBS in Iowa yet the Hill crew had to resort to all kinds of shenanigans to eck our a win of .02% . Not even convinced that was a win for her as it stands today.
yeah she's a force to be reckoned with, LOL, my aching ass she is
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)That was the Sanders workers who did that, nevermind.
polichick
(37,152 posts)Wonder why?
Some new polls count mostly landlines, others count "likely" voters - coincidence?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research and Communications, February 2-6, 2016. The survey is based on
responses from 407 randomly selected likely Democratic presidential primary voters. Interviews
were conducted by landline and cellular telephone. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.9
percent.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/02/07/FPU-BH-Feb02-06-Dem_0.pdf
polichick
(37,152 posts)"Likely" and "landlines" slant old.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Again, the polls are weighted to ensure there is no difference in preference between cell phone and landline users, i.e., if cell phone users are breaking 65-35 for Sanders and landline users are breaking for 65-35 for Clinton, the pollsters are going back to check their work. That's math, social science, and statistics.
But don't take my word for it. I am just a random internet poster. Please contact the persons who conducted the poll:
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
James Wolken
Director of Marketing and Communication
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.4343
Wolkenj@franklinpierce.edu
David Deiuliis
Communication Manager
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.4344
Deiuliisd@franklinpierce.edu
Kristen Nevious
Director of The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.1039
neviousk@franklinpierce.edu
They will tell you the same thing.
polichick
(37,152 posts)He explained how easy it is to get any result you want by "weighting" - excuse me for calling bullshit on this perception campaign.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)"Weighting" is part of polling but don't take the word of a random poster for it; contact the pollsters.
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
James Wolken
Director of Marketing and Communication
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.4343
Wolkenj@franklinpierce.edu
David Deiuliis
Communication Manager
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.4344
Deiuliisd@franklinpierce.edu
Kristen Nevious
Director of The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication
Franklin Pierce University
40 University Dr.
Rindge, NH 03461
603.899.1039
neviousk@franklinpierce.edu
polichick
(37,152 posts)that can lead to one result or another? (Not that pollsters don't sometimes want to come up with an honest snapshot.)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)But before I accuse anybody of dishonesty I need some kind of factual foundation.
Why would a pollster put out a poll that is "wrong" to favor a candidate?
They will look incompetent when the actual vote occurs.
Example:
This poll has Sanders winning by 7:
Sanders has held for several weeks. A week ago, Sanders had a 20-point lead over Clinton.
Today, that lead has shrunk to 7 points, with Clinton polling at 44 percent (up from 37 percent)
and Sanders polling at 51 percent (down from 57 percent). These results strongly suggest that
the race for the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire could be tightening.
Clinton's narrow Iowa victory has given her a major lift in the Granite State while Sanders now has reason to be nervous. The Vermont socialist senator was beating the former Secretary of State by a 57-37 percent margin right before the caucuses, but he now clings to just a 51-44 percent lead, according to the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 407 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Feb. 2-6.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/02/07/FPU-BH-Feb02-06-Dem_0.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/gtnko23
If he wins by 30 they will look like nimcompoops.
polichick
(37,152 posts)likely voters instead of registered, landlines disproportionally, etc. to come up with a poll that works as intended for perception campaigns.
This is American politics as usual.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)polichick
(37,152 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Registered Voters scale.
polichick
(37,152 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)polichick
(37,152 posts)influence whether or not they go to the polls
I am heartened to read articles about the younger generation totally distrusting traditional civic institutions - they should!
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)INdemo
(6,994 posts)likely Democratic presidential primary voters.
The Demographics ????
407 Wow now that is scientific
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)how Sanders supposedly lost 14% of his lead over the last 7 days.
I think some of the polls are being rigged to show a mystery Clinton "surge" so the voting machines can work their black box magic on Tuesday without the fraud being completely obvious.
TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)left lowrider
(97 posts)NT
madokie
(51,076 posts)Welcome to DU btw.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Gothmog
(145,489 posts)asuhornets
(2,405 posts)We may have ourselves a race. HILLARY!! HILLARY!!!
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)The lily white constituencies is NOT reflective of the Democratic Party.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)THE DEMOCRATIC RESULTS
Bernie Sanders continues to top Clinton by about a 2-to-1 margin, 61% to 31%. Nearly two-thirds of likely Democratic voters say they have definitely decided whom to support, so the two remaining Democratic candidates are battling over a small share of the likely electorate.
The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by telephone from February 2-4. The poll includes interviews with a random sample of 751 adult residents of New Hampshire, including 312 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and 287 who plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary. For results among the sample of likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/cnn-wmur-new-hampshire-poll-donald-trump-primary/index.html
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocraticSocialist8
(396 posts)More than likely, older voters are being oversampled. Bernie could be losing some women voters too thanks to Hillary playing up the gender card so hard since Iowa.
brentspeak
(18,290 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Hillary could actually win NH if the numbers keep moving her way.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)Methinks some polls are being rigged to match the planned rigged voting machine results.
I see no narrative explanation whatsoever for why Clinton would be closing any gap with Sanders in New Hampshire.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)RESULTS: JANUARY 8, 2008
New Hampshire - Complete results
Democrats Vote % Del
Clinton 112,251 39 9
Obama 104,772 36 9
Edwards 48,681 17 4
Richardson 13,249 5 0
Kucinich 3,919 1 0
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-08-new-hampshire_N.htm
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)He have a great speech about not looking back and trying harder going forward and took a little heat for it too as I recall.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)of opsan machine ballot counting even though he won the hand counted precincts handily.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Right. Because of voting machines.
She cheated then, just as she is planning to cheat this time around
Here is the contact information for Attorney General Lynch:
U.S. Department of Justice
950 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20530-0001
202-514-2000
Please contact her and lodge your complaint.
Thank you in advance.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)It's going to be close......
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)kerry-is-my-prez
(8,133 posts)Pretty much the definition of momentum. it's important to know if this poll was the same one it's being measured against however. You have to measure the Gallup poll numbers against the prior Gallup poll numbers, for example.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)When the polls were turning in Iowa and we were doing this you laughed at us.
Instead of wondering how Bernie (who still will win NH) is slipping, how about wondering how Hillary blew a 56 point lead in NH over the last year
http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/new_hampshire_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf
That's what I thought.