Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders: Part I: They have a lot in common with Ron Paul supporters

[kennetha]

Interesting read, by the king of statistical analysis.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-young-democrats-love-bernie-sanders/

[HooptieWagon]

1. I know a few millenial Ron Paul supporters very interested in Sanders.

I don't see that as a bad thing at all.

[Hortensis]

4. "Young Americans Aren't into Wealth Redistribution."

Really?! When so many are facing jobs that won't pay a living wage and others are being hustled into "professional" cubicle positions?

I know many have spent their entire 2 or 3 decades hearing anti-Democratic and anti-liberal propaganda, but truly THIS is a surprise anyway.

[HooptieWagon]

6. ? Did you reply to wrong post?

[Hortensis]

7. Actually, I did mean to chat with KennethA. But,

as for Ron Paul supporters moving to Bernie, great.

Ron Paul is a "not-really-ex-" John Bircher bigot, whose ideology never changed -- just how he labeled himself for public consumption. A classic example of a hard-core conservative with both white nationalist and "libertarian" economic leanings. It's likely that many of these young people still have no idea who he is, just seeing that nice, mild-as-milk face that turned up on interviews now and then.

[HooptieWagon]

8. The Ron Paul supporters I know...

...are all millenial males that agreed with him on several issues (notably marijuana), and liked his anti-establishment stance. All of them agree that Libertarianism goes to far. Sanders probably fits their views a bit closer, but they're still studying him - not sold yet.

[Hortensis]

11. Sorry, I did. But I think it's great

that young people are coming over from Ron Paul to Bernie. Of course, everyone should leave Paul. I suspect many of these kids never looked much past the mild-as-milk manner and language Paul puts out for public consumption.

[white_wolf]

30. Mild as milk manner...That's a great description of his public face.

Ron Paul always came across as this reasonable principled man, but I always got the vibe that there was something wrong underneath that persona.

[Hortensis]

33. White nationalist, ex- (but never really) John Bircher, etc.

Before the internet made learning about our would-be leaders a lot easier, I never paid attention to him until I found out he was strangely popular among a bunch of hard-right troublemaking social conservatives and other extremists, like Stormfront types, though he tried to dissociate himself when it started being talked about.

All politicians attract people they don't want to and shouldn't be judged by those, but at some point it becomes equally foolish not to notice when the ideology of large groups of followers isn't quite what is being professed in front of TV cameras.

[Arazi]

2. Legalizing MJ and decriminalizing other drug use with emphasis on rehab

explains a lot imo, a topic Nate Silver doesn't even touch

But seriously, Paul's libertarianism isn't anything LIKE Sanders' socialism - the two political philosophies can't overlap. More likely the common thread is dislike of the status quo and a refusal to buy into the stale gridlock that's consumed Washington.

And lastly, peeling more young voters away from the Republican party and to the Democratic Party is a bad thing?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

3. He does actually have some interesting points in there, like his one on wealth redistribution,

although he mislabels his graph to try to hide what it actually says.

"Young Americans aren't into wealth redistribution".

But look at what the graph ACTUALLY says.

To make things a little more intuitive, I’ve translated those responses to a 100-point scale, where 0 represents the most conservative/right-wing position (no redistribution!), and 100 the most liberal/left-wing position (hell yes, redistribution!). The chart below summarizes how both Americans overall and Americans aged 18-29 have responded to the question over time."

So even a 50% score suggests that yes, America DOES want redistribution. A 0 would mean 'no redistribution' a 100 (the 'most liberal position') would be complete redistribution, such that everyone would be equal. A 50, therefore suggests that America supports a decent level of redistribution, and American youth, with a 60%, support even more redistribution, which is certainly a far cry from his conclusion/label that says 'Young Americans aren't into wealth redistribution'.

[Hortensis]

5. 50% is analagous to neutral, "centrist,"

not 50% for wealth redistribution.

Americans end up pretty much in the middle of the road. Whereas 50 would represent an exactly centrist position, the average score among all Americans in 2014 (the most recent edition of the survey) was 54. Americans aged 18-29 scored a 60, just slightly further to the left.

But these are really modest differences, and they haven’t changed much over time. In 1996, 20 years ago, the average response among all Americans was a 54, and the average among Americans aged 18-29 was a 59, almost exactly the same as now.

It’s possible that Sanders will trigger a shift toward more support for economic redistribution in the future, but there hasn’t been one yet.

But, like I said, this relative indifference is a surprise. How many of these people can afford to rent an apartment just because they work full time? I suspect they grew up inhaling the Kool-Aid the GOP has drenched the nation with for four decades.

[NCTraveler]

9. From the begining, Sanders has been sending voluteers to Rand Paul events.

Sanders recently supported the extreme right wing legislation attempting to politicize monetary policy even further(only one dem joined republicans in its support).

I see a deal worked out here.

[cali]

13. Link to Bernie sending volunteers to Paul events

[Nonhlanhla]

10. In other words

...a sizeable chunk of Bernie's support does not come from progressives.

[HooptieWagon]

15. Wrong.

Nearly all his support comes from progressive Dems and progressive Indies (for example Greens). There is some crossover support from libertarians and republicans, but even combined it's in the single digits. And that support is likely single issue based, not an embracing of Sanders entire platform.

[Nonhlanhla]

17. Not wrong

I know that most of his support comes from progressives. But SOME of his support comes from people who would just as comfortably support Rand Paul and even Trump. There are even some voters who can't decide between Bernie and Kasich. That's just weird. This ideological confusion among some voters always baffles me.

[HooptieWagon]

18. Oh Geesh. Stop grasping at straws.

There is no "Trump Wing" supporting Sanders, that's a figment of Hillarians imagination. Only sole example was of a woman who couldn't decide... She probably needs help dressing in the morning also. Any supporter of a republican candidate is coming from Hillarys right. Bernie supporters come from Hillarys left. Hillary is much closer to Kasich and Bush than she is Bernie. If there's any notable crossover, that's where it would be.

[Nonhlanhla]

23. Grasping at straws?

For what purpose?

I don't give a flying fig about the FACT that some of Bernie's support comes from conservatives. I do find it amusing that despite the fact that there have been multiple indications that some of Bernie's supporters are not truly ideologically left (and not just one sole example), and even some Bernie supporters bragging about how he has crossover appeal, you are insisting that it is not true. So you are saying he has NO crossover appeal then? I thought that was your side's great electability argument. And you are saying that all those ex-Paulites who are now Bernie supporters, and the people in NH reported on here at DU who could not decide between Bernie and Kasich, and the angry types who cannot decide whether to support the right-wing anti-establishment guy or the left-wing one, that none of these people exist?

I wasn't even noting this as an attack on Bernie. Calm down. I just find it fascinating that there are people who seem to be incapable of grasping the fact that Ryan/Trump/Kasich are all ideologically opposite to Bernie.

[HooptieWagon]

25. Oh Jeesh....

There is no conservatives supporting Bernie. They are supporting one of the clown-car candidates. There is a slight bit of support for Bernie from some libertarians, which isn't really left or right. It's just a mutual agreement on a few issues. There is far more agreement between Hillary and the establishment GOP candidates like Bush on their neo-liberal economics and neo-conservative foreign policy. That is why Blankfein said he'd be equally pleased with Clinton or Bush.

[Nonhlanhla]

27. Thanks for the poli sci lesson

As someone with a Ph.D. who teaches humanities I have of course NO IDEA what the real ideological divide is.

[HooptieWagon]

29. My female millenial friend with a PhD in political theory...

Would probably find your condescension refreshing...

She might even use you as an example in the University classes she teaches.

[Nonhlanhla]

32. Tell me something

Why is it that so many Bernie supporters attack every little thing? I know some Hillary supporters are also guilty of this, but not nearly to the same extent.)

In this thread I made the simple observation that Bernie draws some people from the right - a claim that had been made a hundred times by Bernie supporters on this forum. You decided to read it as somehow some nefarious attack on Bernie, a "grasping for straws" (for what purpose, you did not say). You then proceed to lecture me on how impossible it would be for a conservative to support Bernie (despite the evidence that shows that some, obviously badly informed, voters cannot fathom the difference between Bernie and any number of Republicans). The only here who was condescending was you, in assuming that I have no clue where the real ideological divide lies and therefore proceeding to lecture me on how Republicans are closer to Hillary than to Bernie. (They are, obviously, but only very slightly.)

Truly, this kind of aggressiveness from Bernie supporters is what makes this forum increasingly unpleasant. The simplest remarks get attacked, even when it did not even contain any criticism of Bernie (whom I like, by the way, despite the negative feelings I have developed for some of his supporters).

By the way, I doubt your "female millenial friend with a PhD in political theory" would deem it necessary to use an unnamed internet poster whose positions she does not know in a classroom. I know I would not use you as an example in my classroom, since we have to spend time reading more important texts.

Have a nice day. Enjoy your candidate's win tonight.

[hobbit709]

12. Wind up that spin machine and let her rip.

[VulgarPoet]

19. Because y'know Bernie's supporters clearly aren't Democrats

might as well start painting them as republicans and freepers right

[beam me up scottie]

28. Yep, they could power a small city with that kind of energy.

[speaktruthtopower]

14. Very different on some positions...

but I think it would be an interesting idea for Paul and other libertarian Republicans to do a town hall with Bernie on issues of mutual interest like campaign finance reform. It would make both sides more viable against the better funded Republicrats grouped in the middle.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

16. Thank you so much! Fascinating read and says a lot.

[uponit7771]

20. "but are not part of historically underprivileged groups..."

What’s distinctive about both the Sanders and Ron Paul coalitions is that they consist mostly of people who do not feel fully at home in the two-party system but are not part of historically underprivileged groups. On the whole, young voters lack political influence. But a young black voter might feel more comfortable within the Democratic coalition, which black political leaders have embraced, while a young evangelical voter might see herself as part of a wave of religious conservatives who long ago found a place within the GOP.

[Armstead]

21. Totally meaningless. In any catagorization of people there are wide variables.

What is a "mainstream Democrat? Is it Zell Miller or Teddy Kennedy? Max Baucus or Paul Wellstone?

More gopbbeldygook designed to tar Sanders as a wingnut and his followers as Rand Pauil acolytes.

It's a load of Happy Horseshit.

[sadoldgirl]

22. Maybe we should not forget the Paul message

part about less interference in foreign policy?

[SidDithers]

24. DU rec...nt

Sid

[Beacool]

26. Good read.

"Bernie Sanders proudly describes himself as a “socialist” (or more commonly, as a “democratic socialist”). To Americans of a certain age, this is a potential liability. I’m just old enough (38) to have grown up during the Cold War, a time when “socialist” did not just mean “far left” but also implied something vaguely un-American. If you’re older than me, you may have even more acutely negative associations with “socialism” and may see it as a step on the road to communism. If you’re a few years younger than me, however, you may instead associate “socialism” with the social democracies of Northern Europe, which have high taxes and large welfare states. Sweden may not be your cup of tea, but it isn’t scary in the way the USSR was to people a generation ago.

Indeed, views of socialism are highly correlated with a voter’s age. According to a May 2015 YouGov poll, conducted just before Sanders launched his campaign, a plurality of voters aged 18 to 29 had a favorable view of socialism. But among voters 65 and older, just 15 percent viewed socialism favorably, to 70 percent unfavorably."

Yep, that makes sense.

[Warren DeMontague]

31. Debbie wasserman schultz seems to agree with Chris Christie on marijuana policy.

Isnt that interesting?