Republican Delegate math

[morningfog]

As we move through these painfully entertaining primaries, the math will become even more fun.

The delegate count as it stands (2/13), according to NYT:

Romney-105
Santorum-71
Gingrich-29
Paul-18

To reach the nomination, 1144 delegates, each would need to pick up:

Romney-1039
Santorum-1073
Gingrich-1115
Paul-1126

2061 delegates remain to be allocated through the primary contests. The percentage of remaining delegates left that must be won are:

Romney-50.4%
Santorum-52%
Gingrich-54%

There is no way Paul or Gingrich, who have each earned under 20% so far could come close.

So far, Romney has 47% of the delegates decided, Santorum has 31.8%.

The fun will be to watch Romney consistently NOT earn the needed 50.4% to win. Until he starts breaking 50%, his window for winning the nomination on the first ballot closes little by little. As long as Santorum and at least one of the other goobers stays in, it is unlikely Romney will be able to break 50% consistently.

NYT delegate count: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

[Proud Public Servant]

1. To be clear

Romney doesn't have to consistently hit 50.4%; he just has to get 50.4% of the remaining delegates. In a winner-take-all contest, he could do that with as little as 26% of the vote. His problem is that there are enough proportional contests to drag the process out. I fully expect the contest to go all the way to June 5th, when the California and New Jersey primaries -- both Romney leaning, both winner-take-all, with 219 delegates between them -- finally puts Mittens over the top.

[morningfog]

10. That is true. I was generalized the math for the remaining contests.

However, while 219 is a sizable chunk, it may or may not be enough to make up the difference in reaching 50%+ between now and then (and after for that matter).

[Proud Public Servant]

11. Here's another way to do the math:

Ok, right now Romney needs 1139 of the 2061 remaining -- 50.4%

BUT, June is going to be kind to him: Not only CA and NJ but also Utah are all winner-take-all and all Romney country. So add in their 259 in now. That leaves Romney scrounging for 780 delegates out of 1802 remaining -- 43.3%.

That's much more doable. Assume Gingrich is dead. Yeah, fine, he's "taking it to the convention," but so what? He's got no money, no organization, no constituency left (now that Santorum has emerged as the voice of true conservativism). Maybe he picks up a couple of favorite-son delegates in Georgia's proportional primary, but I'd bet that's the last hurrah. Also, assume that Paul will siphon off 10-15% of the delegates (this seems reasonable, given that he's under 10% now and only seems to be scoring in New England and in caucus states). That means Romney -- with his deeper pockets and superior organization -- effectively just has to split the non-Paul delegates with Santorum 50-50 between now and June 5 and Romney seals the deal with his big June boost. Very, very doable.

[morningfog]

12. 43.3% is more doable. Yet, Romney has only broken that number in one state so far.

[Proud Public Servant]

14. But he doesn't have to break it

He just has to come in first about half the time. In a 3- or 4-man race, he can do that with a smaller percentage of the vote -- and, indeed, is already doing so.

[morningfog]

15. Coming in first will only get him so far (except in winner-take-all states).

Where the rest are proportionally allocated, he will have to get mid to upper 40's. He isn't doing that. Currently, he is leading in Arizona, but trailing in MI, GA and OH.

The math isn't looking good for him, at least not in the near future.

[Cosmocat]

17. He definitely cleans up in the big winner takes all states

Florida was HUGE, and as noted, it seems Cali and NJ are favorable to him.

[gordianot]

2. Oh please let there be a brokered "and broken" convention.

Nasty little small minded Republicans do not know how to play nice even with each other.

[Proud Public Servant]

3. It won't be

Even if no candidate arrived with the requisite number of delegates (and that seems to me wildly unlikely, the likelier scenario is a simple horse-trade, where Romney promises either Gingrich or Santorum something in exchange for his support. I could see Gingrich accepting a prominent enough cabinet position, like State (god help us).

[grantcart]

6. I disagree on both the math and the analysis

First if you have three or four candidates it is almost impossible to get 51% of the remaining pool.

If candidate number 3 and 4 get just 12% of the delegates it means that number one candidate would have to get about 60% of the remaining votes and no one is going to get that in this race.

As to the 'horse' trading analysis.

Delegates can be obligated to a particular candidate for one or two ballots. After that they are on their own (and in some cases are on their own from their begining).

Santorum and Gingrich delegates don't have a long history of support for their candidate and Gingrich and Santorum are not going to be in a position to barter these delegates away. They may be able to influence them with an appeal to hot issues like abortion but these delegates are not going to simply follow a back room deal.

Paul's supporters are much more tied to him, but because he refuses to do backroom deals.

Romney's numbers are collapsiing so he is unlikely to be the one putting together any deals.

[frazzled]

4. A number of states after early March will be winner-take-all

including California and Ohio, both of which have a large number of delegates.

[sofa king]

5. What amuses me the most today is Ohio.

Right now I see all the arrows pointing to Ohio as the place that is going to show us who the real candidate is.

It's currently tight, with the three front runners almost within the margin of error.

It's also a modified open primary, meaning that those who have not declared a party can vote (and smart Democrats may have noticed for the past four years that going undeclared will give them a chance to vote in the Republican primary, instead of rubber-stamping the President's nomination).

And, it's a winner-take-all state with 66 delegates, geographically located as a nice stopover between the other Super Tuesday targets, so the three frontrunners have no reason not to fight hard for it.

But Ohio is also totally corrupt and hasn't had an honest election in at least six years.

Which means this primary election is perfect for determining which primary candidate has gained support/and/or/control of the GOP's election theft mechanism.

Whoever steals Ohio is the one who steals the nomination, and tries to steal the election. 'Cause that's how they roll.

[grantcart]

7. It is interesting that the Paul campaign is disputing all of these numbers

What they are saying is that delegates are being selected at the caucus level and people are assuming that is the end of the story.

They are saying that when delegates get to the county and state level that the other campaigns are not followin through and that they are getting a much higher percentage of delegates than the original caucus results are showing.

For example they are claiming that they will have a substantial majority in Maine, or even the entire delegation because they are going to be in control of the state convention.

I believe that they are telling the truth having been to state conventions and seen this happen before.

[Raine1967]

8. Isn't this what Rachel Maddow hi-lighted last week?

Here is a good description and the video of her interviewing Ron Paul guy, Doug Wead:

All the news flashes indicate that Mitt Romney wins the Maine caucuses, which should mean he wins a proportionate number of delegates, right? Wrong.

As Rachel Maddow explains in this report, the Ron Paul strategy is to let the caucus results fall where they may, and then ensure Ron Paul delegates are elected to the convention. Because these caucus results are non-binding, it ensures that the votes matter less than the delegates sent to the convention. And right now, the Iowa, Minnesota, and likely Maine delegates will be attending not for Mitt Romney, but Ron Paul. Not for Gingrich or Santorum, but Ron Paul.

It's pretty crafty -- and sorty crappy.

(edited for better formatting)

[grantcart]

13. Yes and again a couple nights ago

and it is also what Ron Paul said in Maine.

I don't get the sense that they are bluffing either

[morningfog]

9. That is interesting.

Paul has a unique strategy to be sure, and I wouldn't doubt that it is playing out as he says.

If that is true, less delegates are going to Romney, and less from the pool.

[victoryparty]

16. Ron Paul's strategy

Well, stranger things have happened. It will be fun to watch and see.