2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReagan-Mondale Debate #1-Mondale Closes A Huge Deficit For Naught
In their first debate Reagan went in with a lead in the teens and left with a lead in the mid single digits. It was a shift of more than ten points but that lead dissipated and Reagan went on to win by eighteen points.
IMHO, it dissipated for two reasons; the first reason being Reagan had a better second debate and the second reason is the fundamental structure of the race reasserted itself.
Obama went into the debate with a much, much smaller lead so if he is trailing narrowly in a poll here and a poll there I wouldn't be concerned, as the underlying fundamental structure of the race will reassert itself.
skeewee08
(1,983 posts)The next two Presidential debates plays to his strength.....
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)When you analyze events it's extraordinarily difficult not to let your bias affect your analysis.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)... but that's my nature. I was overly concerned before the debate and overly concerned in 2008. I just don't trust this country. I don't trust the Republicans. I don't trust the majority. The fact that the White Party is even in this race reminds me that this country has the potential to do great evil.
Obama has a good dose of presidential arrogance as all presidents in office 4 years do. I'm not convinced that he can turn it around in the second debate and put together a convincing argument that 1) Romney is a shape shifter; and 2) Obama has earned a second term.
Still waiting on my yard sign from the Obama team; I've had a Dem presidential sign in my yard every election since Clinton. Bad karma if I miss this one!
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Clinton is the only incumbent president in the modern era to win his first debate, yet why isn't Obama practically living with the dude at this point in debate preparation? I just don't get why they are not pushing debate prep to the meddle. I think Obama should cancel some appearances because they will not matter if he doesnt do much better in the next two debates. The debates are THE priority now.