2016 Postmortem
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(68,868 posts)TomClash
(11,344 posts)Blue Yorker
(436 posts)It's the other way around.
angrychair
(8,700 posts)That is awesome.
PSPS
(13,601 posts)Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)I'd expect to see Romney assume a 3 - 4 point lead by Monday unless the job data has stemmed the tide.
Shivering Jemmy
(900 posts)Obama hasn't really dropped any from his 49-50 baseline. How does Romney take a lead when Obama hasn't declined? Their totals can't add to more than 100%.
Secondly these bumps tend to be impulses coming in over a day or two. So trend won't likely be linear.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)I'm a terminal pessimist.
Much harder to be disappointed that way.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)Water on all positive news. If you think Romney will assume the lead then fine. Don't feel the need to throw water on every bit of good news. Besides, for months Gallup was always Obama's weakest poll.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)But I'm clinging to any positive news at all. Any glimmer that shows that maybe Obama did not ruin his chances to win. Just as I begin to feel a little better ( not that he is going to have a huge lead but that he might possibly survive this) there is someone there to throw cold water.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)I think Obama can now bounce back hugely with the second debate, assuming there's no bad news between now and then, or Biden doesn't get demolished by Ryan (that would be very problematic, and it wouldn't have been had Obama at least appeared a bit more alive). Lift from the Reagan model: After a narcoleptic first performance, bound out all bright and breezy and make a joke about Romney's many personas.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)State polls, GOTV operation, etc.