Time To Get a Grip

[Doctor Jack]

My friends, I don't like to see all of the mental anguish here over one day of polling, so i want to try to sooth your nerves a little bit

There were a few news stories I posted before the debates talking about

1. Why in the long run, the debates won't matter

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251115789

2. Romney was likely to see a somewhat large bounce in the polls around now. Notice how it says "bounce" and not "permanent change".

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251116372


Remember, these were things that were said before the debates and it is now playing out exactly as predicted. Just like with the republican convention, the polls for the next few days are meaningless. They are there and you can stress out about them all you want but odds are, it is a waste of time because things will probably drift back to Obama in fairly short order. The first part of the predictions played out exactly as they believed. Why doubt that the second part (the bounce fading) will happen too?

Go out, enjoy your weekend, and just ride out the storm.

[Cary]

1. Indeed

But it's not a storm. I don't think it will rise to that level either.

Do you see anything coming out this debate that would qualify as an Obama defeat? The best they can put together is Rmoney lying, juxtaposed by President Obama either listening or writing.

In the meantime we have 6 new ads so far highlighting Rmoney flip flopping his way through the debate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. None Of Us Can See The Future And We All Are Hindered By The Biases We Bring To Our Analysis

That being said, assuming the Obama campaign can equal their African American, Asian, and Latino turnout from 2008 he only needs 38% of the white vote to win. Even hapless losers like Carter in 80, Mondale, in 84, and Dukakis in 88 received respectively 35%, 36%, and 40% of the white vote. In fact Barack Obama can get a smaller percentage of the white vote than Michael Dukakis and still win. But he needs to turn them out.

[tularetom]

3. I'm not concerned about the end result of this campaign

But I am confused and disappointed by Obama's performance in the first debate. I thought he was more competitive than that.

I know, I know, he didn't want to get down in the dirt with Romney, he didn't want to wrestle with a pig, the debate would have deteriorated into name calling, yada yada yada.

But the debate was a joke as it was. Nobody was listening they were just watching. And the visual impression of the debate is far more lasting than what was said. People don't remember that Romney lied his ass off for 90 minutes but they do remember that he appeared to be in control while Obama stood there looking half asleep.

Of course it won't happen again. It may have turned out to be just the kick in the ass that the President needed. I'm still wondering how somebody with as much pride and self confidence as Obama has let it happen in the first place.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Didn't Think He Was That Bad. He Wasn't Bush* Bad For Sure.

Maybe I'm that biased.

But it doesn't matter what I think. It matters what the voters think. This is a mess, largely, of his own making...