FiveThirtyEight=October 6th Update

[Doctor Jack]

What you have all been fearing today, I am sure

Electoral Vote

Obama:314

Romeny: 223

Popular Vote

Obama 51.3%

Romney: 47.7%

Odds of Winning

Obama: 83.6%

Romney: 16.4%


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[regnaD kciN]

1. Those are still pretty good odds...

...but note what Nate wrote yesterday -- that he's not sure the model can figure in huge debate bounces properly, and that some days will need to elapse before a clear picture can be seen.

Hopefully, those days will see a substantial improvement in polling over the past two...because, if these numbers remain steady, I think you might even see Romney ahead in the electoral college odds by mid-week. (And, no, that's not an exaggeration.)

[bigdarryl]

4. The damn debate was on Wednesday whats he talking about

[FBaggins]

14. Gallup (as an example) uses a 7-day rolling average.

So only about half of the calls are post-debate.

OTOH, the better headline number for unemployment muddles even that.

[Lex]

12. Where does Nate say Romney will EVER be ahead in the Electoral College count?

[fugop]

2. Dammit! Only 314 electoral votes? Doesn't it take like 400 to win?

Oh wait. It's 270. Phew.

[TroyD]

22. We want as big of a win as possible

It's not okay to just give states and EV's away.

We have to allow room for electoral fraud.

And remember, Obama's numbers going down can risk us losing the Senate momentum we've worked so hard for.

[speedoo]

3. "What you have all been fearing today, I am sure..."

Huh?

What are you seeing in this update that I am not?

[Doctor Jack]

6. It was gentle mocking of some of our more nervous members

Some people have been stressing over the polls all day

[speedoo]

7. OK, thanks. Nt

[Happyhippychick]

5. Sarcasm.

[Jack Sprat]

8. Mixed signals

Not just from the polling, but from Nate himself in recent days.

The story of 538 is that it will still be a few days before the uncertainty starts clearing up. I still don't feel any easier about things right now. My nature is always cautious and skeptical.

[craigmatic]

9. I haven't been fearing anything. Obama is going to win the election. Mittens hasn't led in the EC

all year.

[DemzRock]

10. I think that our main fear is that it gets close enough to steal.

No?

[annabanana]

13. +1. . . .n/t

[pscot]

17. Truth

[blkmusclmachine]

20. Close enough to steal.

That's the plan.


OPERATION NORTHWOODS

[Vietnameravet]

11. I was just looking at this poll and then I came here

Yes Obama took a bit of a hit..but he is still the favorite to win..

Its credible to me..


Remember Romney is now being subjected to a barrage of fact checking...most very negative

I cant think of anyone that wanted Obama before the debate, changing their minds and .

.national polls showing the race close are skewed because of heavy Romney support in the Red States...so even a close race nationally doesnt mean the actual race is close..Long as we keep the battle ground states we will win.

.and I think the debate may actually awaken some from their complacency,,which would be a tragedy for us..

Also Republican voter suppression laws are being taken down..

So all in all..we stay the course. fight like tigers and .we win..

Yes I am stressed...but stress is good! Gets you moving!

[Grammy23]

18. Heard earlier today (sorry can't remember where) that

Obama is still LIKED better than Romney. Apparently not too much damage was done to how folks feel about Obama, nor did Mittens endear himself to a whole bunch of new people. Whew.....I thought there for a minute he might win Miss Congeniality.

[Hyper_Eye]

15. We need to wait for more polls.

Those numbers are going to change more by the time Biden goes into the debate on Thursday. People need to stop jumping the gun when forming conclusions around here. It doesn't do us any good to approach this race from a perception that is not totally rooted in reality. I think we are going to see the numbers move more towards Romney as the effect of the debate starts to become clear and then movement back as the unemployment and jobs numbers cause a counter-effect. It takes more than a couple of days for these changes to really become apparent. Nate Silver will let us know when he believes the full effect of these events is being reflected in his model.

Within the last few days RCP flipped Ohio back to a toss-up. The no toss-ups map has flipped North Carolina and Florida into Romney's column. That cannot be ignored.

[Brewinblue]

16. Numbers have already moved in favor of evil. Latest at 538 =

Electoral Vote

Obama:310.6

Romeny: 227.5

Popular Vote

Obama 51.1%

Romney: 47.8%

Odds of Winning

Obama: 80.2%

Romney: 19.8%

[landolfi]

19. Obama at 80%? I'll take it!

People are smarter than we sometimes give them credit for--we all predicted R$ would be declared the winner in the MSM unless he barfed all over himself and dang it, he didn't--so this shouldn't come as any surprise. So while the MSM tripped over themselves to say it was all even all of a sudden, nobody likes a liar and asshole (I saw a blog post where the writer said R$ was that kid you knew who was rich and had a swimming pool and you still didn't want to go to his birthday party). Also, I think a lot of the surprise here is that folks thought Obama failed to meet the expectations for POTUS, although I would argue O was calmer and more presidential. I submit that the idea that R$ changed the entire political landscape in a lasting way in 1.5 hours is ridiculous no matter how reputable the source. Even if he did, he still has plenty of time to step in it, and history says he will. That said, I'm still shocked that he got any bounce at all and at the amount of media adulation. It's disturbing, but I have faith that time is on our side.

Also, unless I'm mistaken, this does not include the effect of the jobs numbers from any reputable pollster.

[skor584_2il]

21. +100.

couldn't agree more