Rasmussen: Romney fails to go up on Sunday (Still +2)

[TroyD]

Rasmussen Tracking

Obama - 47

Romney - 49

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

-------

Sunday, October 07, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.

The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Scott Rasmussen’s weekly newspaper column notes that “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.” Rasmussen wonders, “Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We’ll find out on October 16.”

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their mind before voting. Forty-three percent (43%) are certain they will vote for Obama. Platinum Members can still see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.

[Zynx]

1. That's actually good news.

Basically, as far as I can tell, Obama had terrible days of polling on Thursday and Friday and it has stabilized since then.

[7worldtrade]

2. Means Saturday's numbers were probably closer to Wednesday's, PRE-DEBATE numbers

Since Rasmussen uses a 3 day rolling average, yesterday's numbers included 1/3 pre-debate polling (Wednesday) and 2/3 post-debate polling (Thursday & Friday). Since Thursday and Friday is where we saw the huge drop in top-line, you would expect Romney to go up or Obama down more if Saturday's numbers were still bad. Since Saturday's numbers replaced Wednesday's numbers and there was no movement, its likely that Saturday's numbers were more similar to pre-debate numbers. This is consistent with comments by the Reuters-Ipsos pollster yesterday and the tweets by PPP indicating that Saturday's polling numbers around the country looked much more like pre-debate numbers. Hope this is the beginning of a trend.

[aaaaaa5a]

5. Actually if it is a 3 day rolling average then

these are the results of polling done Thursday-Friday-Saturday.This means this number is done entirely after the debate.

Remember, we saw the big bump in Romney's numbers on Thursday and Friday. And because they have remained the same on Saturday and Sunday, this means the Saturday polling had to be nearly identical to the Wednesday pre-debate polling. This is the same evidence PPP brought forward when they said in their tracking polls that there was a huge bump for Romney on Thursday and Friday and that Saturday was nearly at pre-debate levels.


Rasmussen Daily Tracking numbers

Wednesday/Thursday/Friday-(Saturday's score-Romney +2)

Thursday/Friday/Saturday-(Sunday's score-Romney +2)

By simply math deductions, Saturday's polling must be very similar to Wednesday's pre-debate polling.

Another completely non-partisan poll done completely after the debate but including Saturday has the President leading in Colorado.


The early polls that had everyone "freaking out" were Thursday only polls. Or were polls done Thursday and Friday only.

First, this was Romney's 2 best days of the campaign. Second, when only looking at one day of polling, your margin of error goes up. This is why most polls are conducted over a 3 day period. And even with the Rasmussen tracking poll, we see a legit bump for Romney, but over 3 days it has quickly stabilized, and does not represent the complete downfall of the Obama campaign.

I would add that over the course of this campaign, the Ras tracking poll has produced the least favorable numbers for the President. In fact until about 2 weeks ago, Ras regularly had Romney up by +2 in its tracking poll, even as statewide polls were moving rapidly in the Presidents direction.

[TroyD]

3. Obama still at 50% Job Approval

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

[Jennicut]

4. This means that Reuters was correct in their polling.

Romney had a small bounce but is not increasing on it. The public wants to see the next debates and the unemployment # is going to be factored in the polling soon.

[aaaaaa5a]

6. To show you the legitimacy of this number

Ras has the Ohio Senate race as a tie.

Does anyone really believe that?

The Ras +2 stabilization number for Romney is the best news I have had in 4 days.

[Mass]

7. This is consistent with Ipsos and PPP who note that

on Saturday, polls were back to where they were before the debate.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/bounce_comes_into_focus.php?ref=fpblg

And the silver lining in today’s numbers for Obama is that there’s at least a bit of evidence that Romney’s momentum has plateaued or even fallen back. The Reuters-Ipsos online tracking poll moved to a 2 point margin yesterday from a 5 point margin the day before. That was with 2 days of 4 of post-debate data. Today though it held steady at a 2 point margin for Obama with 3 of 4 days of post debate data.

PPP polls also gave some hints about the polling its done over the last 3 days. PPP’s twitter feed said Friday’s polling was actually worse for Obama than Thursday. But it then noted that “Saturday interviews we’ve done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers.” In other words, PPP’s data seemed to go from bad for Obama on Thursday to really bad for Obama on Friday and then back to something more like the pre-deba

te numbers on Saturday.

Also, a new Colorado poll shows Obama ahead by 4 http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/bit_of_good_news_for_obama.php?ref=fpblg

So, it is probably worthwhile to wait a few days before panicking, to see if this bounce is short lived or not.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. I will add one more point.

Does anyone find it odd that immediately after the debate, the 3 most conservative pollsters in the country immediately went into the field and released ONE DAY polling averages for the battle ground states instead of AT LEAST waiting and doing a proper 3 day survey?


I'm starting to think those polls Thursday and Friday were more like CBS's "who one the debate" flash poll than it was a true measure of where the race currently stands.


Since the "flash one day polls" from the conservative polling firms, we have had from non partisan pollsters...

Wisconsin-Obama +2
Colorado- Obama +4


Both of these polls show movement towards Romney which they should. But they are probably more realistic regarding the state of the race than what we saw Thursday and Friday.

[TroyD]

9. Rasmussen has cooked a poll today for the Ohio Senate Race

While they don't seem to be cooking the national numbers for Romney as much as I thought they would, they released a poll today showing Brown & Mandel tied in Ohio.

Every other poll has shown Brown ahead for weeks, often by double digits. Nate Silver gave Sherrod Brown about a 90% chance of winning coming into October.