Why Hillary Clinton is – and should be – worried about Nevada

[BigBearJohn]

A few weeks ago, Hillary Clinton thought the Nevada caucuses were hers to lose. After a razor-thin victory in Iowa and a decisive loss in New Hampshire, Mrs. Clinton was counting on Nevada and South Carolina as a firewall to stop rival Bernie Sanders' momentum.

That firewall appears to be crumbling.

Some 48 percent of likely Nevada caucus-goers say they will support the former Secretary of State, while 47 percent say they will support Senator Sanders, according to a new CNN/ORC poll.

Other polls show the candidates locked in the same dead heat: Clinton is up just 44 percent to Sanders' 42 percent in the latest Quinnipiac University survey, while TargetPoint shows them in a flat tie, 45-45, and forecasting blog FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average shows Clinton edging Sanders 47-45.

The close race is a surprise, to the say the least, and a lot is riding on the outcome. If, as was originally expected, Clinton wins Nevada, she may yet stop Sanders' momentum, confirm fears that he is weak with minorities, and resume her narrative of electability in South Carolina and beyond.

SOURCE: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0217/Why-Hillary-Clinton-is-and-should-be-worried-about-Nevada-video

[Betty Karlson]

4. Ah, the ever moving goalposts.

I wondered when they would make an appearance today. Winning Nevada by 5 %? What happened to the double digits?

[Betty Karlson]

6. Her support keeps going down, is the point.

The trendline bodes ill for Clinton, even if she manages to limp across the finish line in Nevada. Because it would demonstrate how fragile her supposed 'firewalls' are.

Young women have abandoned her. A whopping 83% of all millennials prefer the other guy. The rank and file of the unions has deserted her, even after the top brass had endorsed her. Now Latinos and PoC are starting to go over to Sanders too (probably because he has the best racial justice platform).

If camp Clinton goes on saying "the important thing is Hillary wins" they only perpetuate the negative perception that she has no principles, only selfish ambition. The trendlines should inspire a different kind of campaign, not more of the gutter-and-kitchen-sink nonsense that keeps sinking her trsutworthiness. That stuff only jeopardises the GE, if we are unlucky enough to end up with Clinton as our nominee. She would risk the GE to win a primary? That is GOP-style shortsightedness.

[cali]

8. Oh it matters. Apparently you don't know

that there are no winner takes all states. Zero. As in none.

[totodeinhere]

9. Your statement shows you know very little about the nominating process.

A narrow one or two point win after having recently having lead by double digits shows that your campaign is losing momentum and there is looming trouble ahead. A win isn't always a win, not to mention that Bernie might very well win outright.

[Major Hogwash]

2. They don't use coin tosses to determine precinct winners in the state of Nevada. Not now.

After the embarrassing debacle in Iowa, the Democratic state chairman of the state of Nevada assured the Democratic caucus goers that there will be no coin flips going on in his state to determine the winners of each and every precinct.
Instead, each and every precinct will have their vote totals counted, verified, and recorded, and ties will also be counted, verified, and recorded.

[Fumesucker]

3. In the previous two states Sanders significantly outperformed the polls

So we shall see.

[bkkyosemite]

7. What I am concerned about that there are not enough caucus captains

in NV or volunteers....things can go very wrong if no oversight. Our area has a few volunteers that traveled there to help. We need more volunteers to man the caucus locations.

[WillyT]

12. K & R !!!