Poll: Clinton dominating Sanders in early March primary states

[SecularMotion]

A poll by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows that Hillary Clinton has a big lead over rival Bernie Sanders in almost all of the states that will be holding primaries in the first week of March.

Her support is strongest in Southern states, with leads of 30 points or more in Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi. She also leads Sanders by 28 points in Alabama, 25 in Arkansas, 26 in Tennessee, 23 in Texas and 22 in Virginia.

Clinton's leads are buoyed by her support among black voters. In every state surveyed, she is ahead of Sanders by at least 40 points among African-Americans.

Sanders is more competitive north of the Mason-Dixon line. He leads by 7 points in Massachusetts, and in Michigan, Clinton is ahead by just 10 points. In his home state of Vermont, Sanders is ahead by a remarkable 76 points. In Oklahoma, Clinton leads by 2 points.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/269692-poll-clinton-dominating-sanders-in-early-march-primary-states

[JimDandy]

1. Still reading, but a quick comparison of the demographics of each of the

states polled to the demographics of the participants polled shows some eye catching anomolies.

In every state polled, 57%-60% of participants were female, 60%-65% of participants were 46 and older, and Blacks were disproportionately represented in the poll in relation to their population.

In Louisiana, for instance, where Blacks are 32% of the population, the Black participants polled were 56% of the sample!

In OK, Blacks are less than 8% of population, but represent 13% of those polled

Arkansas Blacks=15.6% of population, but 27% of those polled

I haven't found the breakdown yet of landline vs cell phones, but landline participants were autopolled and cell phone participants took an online survey.

[PWPippin]

2. Thank you for your pulling apart of the polls. Now, coffee!

[RiverLover]

3. Thanks for digging deeper.

Interesting!

[SecularMotion]

5. Sounds like you're comparing numbers for Democrats to numbers for total state populations

Here's another poll with more details on the participants

Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support

New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 12 states that will hold Democratic primaries for President between March 1st and 8th, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, find Hillary Clinton leading the way in 10 of 12, with double digit leads in 9 of them. Bernie Sanders has an overwhelming lead in his home state of Vermont and also leads in Massachusetts. The race is close in Oklahoma where Clinton is ahead by just 2 points, but she has double digit leads in the other 9 states that will have primaries that week:

State Clinton Support Sanders Support Spread

Alabama 59% 31% Clinton +28

Arkansas 57% 32% Clinton +25

Georgia 60% 26% Clinton +34

Louisiana 60% 29% Clinton +31

Massachusetts 42% 49% Sanders +7

Michigan 50% 40% Clinton +10

Mississippi 60% 26% Clinton +34

Oklahoma 46% 44% Clinton +2

Tennessee 58% 32% Clinton +26

Texas 57% 34% Clinton +23

Virginia 56% 34% Clinton +22

Vermont 10% 86% Sanders +7

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/March2016PrimariesPollingProject.pdf

[JimDandy]

7. Interestingly, some Independents and Republicans participated

in the Democratic Candidates Survey.

My point was, participants polled should more closely reflect the state's demographics than what they did. I know they have to adjust the percentages a bit (since Blacks as a percent make up a larger part of the voters in a Dem primary than in a Republican primary) but the differences just look higher to me than they should be. Maybe they are reasonable to a pollster, though.

[KingCharlemagne]

4. My heart is almost always with the underdog. - nt

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Pffffffft! Not for long, my friend. Not for long. b/t

[jeff47]

8. PPP's last NH poll was Clinton 47, Sanders 44.

They are not doing well this election.

[JimDandy]

9. Ouch! This poll was commissioned by American Family Voices

a liberal non-profit that focuses on economic issues. Elizabeth Warren has fund-raised for this group. Not sure what to make of their involvement.