2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQunnipiac National: Bernie beats all Republicans. Hillary loses to all but Trump.
Bernie's lead is an average of 11 points more than Hillary's.
Clinton 44%
Trump 43%
Cruz 46%
Clinton 43%
Rubio 48%
Clinton 41%
Bush 44%
Clinton 43%
Kasich 47%
Clinton 39%
Sanders 48%
Trump 42%
Sanders 49%
Cruz 39%
Sanders 47%
Rubio 41%
Sanders 49%
Bush 39%
Sanders 45%
Kasich 41%
Here's the differences.
Trump 5
Cruz 13
Rubio 13
Bush 11
Kasich 12
Here are the net favorables. Bernie's +15 is WAAAAAY better than Hillary's -21. Even Trump is more popular than her.
Kasich 35/18% for +17%
Sanders 51/36% for +15%
Rubio 39/37% for +2%
Bloomberg 21/26% for -5%
Cruz 36/45% for -9%
Bush 37/48% for -11%
Trump 37/57% for -20%
Clinton 37/58% for -21%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2324
No wonder Republican Super PAC Future 45 is running attack ads against Bernie. The best chance for the Republicans to win in November is to ignore their own primary and take down Bernie.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)In your face - TRUTH * FACTS.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Look at warning number 3
w4rma
(31,700 posts)Her scorched earth campaign is alienating the precise voters who are the hardest to motivate. The fact of the matter is that if Hillary wins the nomination, she will suppress the vote for all Democrats.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010
The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.
No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.
jfern
(5,204 posts)I'm sure there's no shortage of Clinton Foundation pay to play, FBI investigations, Whitewater, and whatever to attack her on.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Watching Sanders at Monday nights Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump or another Republican nominee would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.
The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the socialist label and requested that Sanders define it so that it doesnt concern the rest of us citizens.
Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who dont want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top thats my definition of democratic socialism.
But thats not how Republicans will define socialism and theyll have the dictionary on their side. Theyll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. Theyll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldnt be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists dont win national elections in the United States .
Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases one of the biggest tax hikes in history, as moderator Chris Cuomo put it to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that hypothetically, youre going to pay $5,000 more in taxes, and declared, W e will raise taxes, yes we will. He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that its demagogic to say, oh, youre paying more in taxes.
Well, yes and Trump is a demagogue.
Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government bigger than ever, Sanders didnt quarrel, saying, P eople want to criticize me, okay, and F ine, if thats the criticism, I accept it.
Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.
Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)is busy running off to PA to meet with fracking industry lobbyists during IA.
http://www.nofrackingway.us/2016/01/31/hillary-clinton-meets-the-frackers/
Sorry but no.
Millions upon millions won't ever support a candidate who is under an FBI investigation & who is dishonest.