Could Sanders shut-out Clinton Vermont? Can he keep her under 15% for zero delegates?

[morningfog]

How much will Bernie win Vermont by? If he takes 85% or more, Hillary would get none of the 16 delegates from the state.

Wouldn't that be something?

Edit to add PPP numbers: 86/10 for Bernie.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/March2016PrimariesPollingProject.pdf

[brooklynite]

1. Do you have any evidence that his lead is that high? Or is this just lazy dreaming?

[cali]

2. Yeah, it's close to that high.

Hillary is not liked here.

[morningfog]

3. Yes. PPP has it 86/10 Bernie -- a shut out if accurate.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/March2016PrimariesPollingProject.pdf

So it is not lazy dreaming old bud.

[virtualobserver]

5. Bernie is the most popular Senator of anyone in their home state

He won Vermont with 71% of the vote.....and now he is a powerful national figure with momentum.

It is hardly lazy dreaming.

[cali]

10. Not only is this probable, but hill has all the endorsements

of name dems. Bernie has more endorsements from the legislature

[HooptieWagon]

12. If he takes every single elected delegate, and supers go to Hillary...

...it sends a very pointed message to the DNC about how out of touch they are with voters, if they're listening.

[cali]

15. They aren't.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. He's pretty close to that according to last polls, iirc.

I'd love to see her do that well in any of the states she's called 'home'. Illinois, Arkansas, or New York? I'll be surprised if she takes any of them by even 60%.

[HooptieWagon]

16. She's well up in Arkansas.

She still is polling strong in southern states, though that may crumble if Sanders does well (<10% gap) in South Carolina.
She has moderate leads in Ill and NY that can probably be quickly closed.
Hillary will win the southern states, though with proportional delegates Sanders will still win some.
From mid-Marvh on Sanders should be on a roll, picking up states in the NE, Rust Belt, midWest and Western states. We just need to keep sending those $27 donations, and working hard.

[redstateblues]

6. Walter Mondale won his home state. MN

He was the last Democrat that ran on raising taxes. Unfortunately that was the only state he won.

[cali]

8. This is not 1972.

[JonLeibowitz]

9. False. So did Obama. n/t

[morningfog]

11. I think you replied to the wrong thread.

[Renew Deal]

7. 16 Delegates

[morningfog]

13. You are correct, 16 pledged delegates. 10 unpledged. Thanks for the correction.

[cali]

14. A delegate is a delegate, but beyond that, it would make headlines.

[morningfog]

17. I wonder what the precedent is for a shut out in a state when there are only two candidates.

When and what candidates have failed to meet the 15 % threshold with only two running?

[morningfog]

18. Does anyone know the precedent for a state shut out in a 2 person race?

[firebrand80]

19. In '08, I recall Obama got ~25% in WV, Hillary did just as bad

in D.C.

I don't remember anyone getting less than 15% in a 2 person, competitive race.