2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders opens up leads in Alaska +14%; Maine +15%; Massachusetts +7%; Vermont +76% (WOW - 76%!)
Alaska = Sanders 48%; Clinton 34%Maine = Sanders 56%; Clinton 41%
Massachusetts = Sanders 49%; Clinton 42%
Vermont = Sanders 86%; Clinton 10%
In addition, there are lots of within the margin-of-error ties and other great signs of progress in Arkansas (wow - Clinton's home state is in play!), Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, with more and more states to be added to the battleground list by the day!
This is exciting!
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
MohRokTah This message was self-deleted by its author.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Response to jeff47 (Reply #4)
MohRokTah This message was self-deleted by its author.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)Either that's snark or you need to see a psychologist.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Again, this is a comparison you do not want to emphasize. 86% is beloved in a political context. And your candidate looks very, very, lacking in her state by comparison.
But please, go ahead and keep going. That way we can start asking questions like "Why do NY voters not like Clinton?"
daleanime
(17,796 posts)unfortunately quite a few of them.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)The largest pool of voters are independents so they aren't tied to a party for loyalty issues
Divernan
(15,480 posts)aquart
(69,014 posts)randys1
(16,286 posts)so many of you need to see this
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511267191
jeff47
(26,549 posts)That way, you can maximize your superiority to us mere mortals that actually read his post.
JGug1
(320 posts)I hate to rain on your parade but Nate Silver is not yet predicting Mass because it hasn't been polled enough but he sure sheds light on other states: Clinton's chances in.....
Nevada: 74%
SC..........: >99%
Georgia.......: 79%
OK..............:81%
Tenn...........: 99%
Texas.......... 9%
Virginia........ 8%
Michigan....... 5%
NC...................: 98%
I suspect that in the end, Bernie Sanders' major contribution to what most of us here stand for is going to be to push Hillary Clinton to the left.
I have NO idea ow or why those smiley faces are on where 9's were written and I cannot get them off. They were not intended by me. My intention was to report facts, not demonstrate support of opposition to either candidate here.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)I mean seriously... do you honestly imagine any candidate gets 100% in a contested primary at any time?
That sort of hyperbole just makes you look silly.
Logical
(22,457 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)He won 100% of the counties in Vermont.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Obviously absolutely nuthin' is good enough.
Smh and
reformist2
(9,841 posts)ebayfool
(3,411 posts)So I want to just put it here that the posts mocked Sanders for not getting 100% (rather than the 86% he did get!). Twice. Double down, delete, then bow out. Probably running from a time-out.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)is self deleting this OP cowardly too? http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027367805
or do you have a different standard for Bernie supporters?
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)ebayfool
(3,411 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)That's a surprise?
And before one of you ask where Clinton lives, she lives in New York, where the electorate in the Bronx is bigger than the entire state of Vermont.
Chances are he'll pull in a whopping 100,000 votes state-wide in Vermont.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)The poster I responded to was the one expressing surprise.
And you sneer at an entire state. Again, no surprise.
George II
(67,782 posts)I'm not sneering at any state, I'm just putting the poll results from Vermont into perspective.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Last edited Fri Feb 19, 2016, 05:40 AM - Edit history (1)
The poster I responded to initially was the one expressing surprise. MohRokTah (Reply #1)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511265952#post1
Who then deleted instead of responding
You asked a question
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511265952#post20
I answered
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511265952#post75
You responded
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511265952#post81
and on ...
So yes, I've looked again.
And yes, I responded to you. As you did to me.
And yes, what you call perspective - I call sneering. You were puckish about an entire state's value.
I'm sure YMMV.
And then I had to go to work, thread interruptus!
cali
(114,904 posts)tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)A mayor of the largest city in the state, a congressman or a senator for decades. So to get 86% support means that he must be doing a pretty damn good job for his constituents
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Hillary only leads Bernie by 21% and Bernie is stronger against Republicans in New York than Hillary.
Loudonville, NY. Hillary Clinton, who has a better favorability rating than Bernie Sanders among Democrats
but a weaker favorability rating among all voters, leads Sanders 55-34 percent in a head-to-head matchup with
New York Democrats. On the Republican side, Donald Trump has the support of 34 percent of New York
GOPers, while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz each have the support of 16 percent and Chris Christie is the only
other Republican in double digits with 11 percent support, according to a new Siena College poll of New York
State registered voters released today.
Clinton leads six leading Republicans by between
17 and 26 points, while Sanders runs up even bigger
leads of between 22 and 33 points. Almost half of
New Yorkers including nearly two-thirds of
Democrats think Clinton will be the next President.
Jobs (42 percent) and keeping America safe
(30 percent) are the top issues.
Hillary, with a small uptick in her favorability rating
since September, has a solid 21-point lead over
Bernie with Democrats, despite a significant increase
in his favorability rating, said Siena College pollster
Steven Greenberg. Sanders has a net 13-point better
favorability rating with all voters than Clinton, while she has a net nine-point better rating among Democrats,
http://files.ctctcdn.com/9c83fb30501/9e02460e-4bda-4afc-adcd-9330137f842d.pdf
wavesofeuphoria
(525 posts)He has his own establishment corruption trouble. He's really not that beloved in NY.
aquart
(69,014 posts)The election that counts is the NYC primary.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Wait for it.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)that should be quite a wait.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Thanks for the thread, Attorney in Texas.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
jeff47
(26,549 posts)You should probably not be counting on their polling quite so much.
PPP also had her leading by 8 points in Iowa.
PPP seems absolutely terrible at doing primary race polls.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Is a Clinton operation
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)I know I've searched before and found the connection, but I'm not finding it now ...
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)I'll find it another time ....have an awesome night
Robbins
(5,066 posts)they had clinton up by 3 and bernie won by 22.they are joke.plus they are being paid by david brock's correct the record.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)It's not an argument most people are going to buy though after he wins in Nevada and comes close to a tie in South Carolina. Hillary must win that state by at least 20%.
Response to Kalidurga (Reply #15)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)And Hillary can't just comfortably win in Nevada she has to win by a very very large margin.
cali
(114,904 posts)She is the best GOTV tool for repukes imaginable. And sorry, but hilly's superdelegates are unplugged. Young people and independents won't vote for her. Americans are sick of the Clintons.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)greymouse
(872 posts)I have nothing good to say about Hillary, but in a dishonesty contest, I am not sure whether she or Trump would come in first.
DUbeornot2be
(367 posts)...dishonesty is an either or type of thing... I don't think comparing levels will help her much...
Yes... She is dishonest!!
jillan
(39,451 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Arkansas a "home state" for Hillary. She didn't grow up there, although she did live there for a number of years and was first lady of the state. But she moved away nearly a quarter century ago, and I'd guess that a lot of voters, especially younger ones, don't feel much of a connection to her and are going to vote the way they would if she'd never lived there.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)brooklynite
(94,598 posts)Must have missed that part.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)a landline and live on their cell phones. No one can discount bernie winning it all because those voters aren't polled and they skew to him. Hillary's idea of an outreach to younger voters is to go to AOL.
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)Paulie
(8,462 posts)She's like "What? What is that!?!?" I had to explain that's how we connected to the Internet, and we had no video or iPads either.
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)Mine turns 9 this weekend. He asked what the weird sound was. I said basically the same. He thought it was funny. I wonder what he would have thought about Apple II's?
Paulie
(8,462 posts)Plugged in the Star Trek cartridge and speech synth and she was like "this is so boring!"
Lol.
beac
(9,992 posts)and this:
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Never could convince them to use the free browsers available today.
It seems the more people learn about Bernie, the higher his poll numbers go. The momentum is definitely in his favor.
neverforget
(9,436 posts)It took awhile but I did it.
Oh yeah, she's a Bernie supporter!
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Of course, you folks were telling us Bernie would not even make it to have his home state vote. THen we were told, he'd win only one state.
Now he is leading in many and national polls within 2.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Any poll that shows Sanders trailing is dismissed as being faked or rigged.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Super Tuesday states.
PPP skipped Colorado and Minnesota, and the Morning Consult state-by-state survey polling shows Sanders being ahead in both Colorado and Minnesota.
Also, Oklahoma is within the margin of error with Sanders rising and Clinton plummeting.
Polls are never a substitute for votes, but if you were going to make a guess about Super Tuesday based on the polling and the poll trends, the data looks good for Sanders in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont. Four days later, things look good for Sanders in Kansas (and Nebraska looks like a toss up trending toward Sanders). One day after that (March 6), Sanders looks good in Maine. Two days later, Michigan looks close and trending toward Sanders.
In the next four weeks, you should be prepared for Sanders building on his huge win in New Hampshire with a good chance at wins in Nevada, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, and maybe a few surprises in addition.
mak3cats
(1,573 posts)...that some of those 12 states hadn't been polled since last fall sometime. So not a true and current picture.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)with Hillary. So no worries, this is in the bag for Hill.
Mike__M
(1,052 posts)is a firewall portable?
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)She's going to have a rude awakening on Super Tuesday. It's going to be painful.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
dchill
(38,505 posts)Her path to the coronation is riddled with post-holes.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Cool stats for one's home turf.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)represent a collapse of the "unelectable" meme.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)And one of Bernie's is Bernie.
The delegate count total is only 26.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)very sorry.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)It's just that simple.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)for all these crazy weighted systems in both the primary and GE are really relevant anymore. I understand the point of trying to balance rural and city issues so some people aren't underserved etc, but there really should be a simpler way to conduct an election.
Until someone gets changes made, we are pretty much stuck with what we have.
secondwind
(16,903 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)SammyWinstonJack
(44,130 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)The Democratic party is in the process of selecting our nominee. One of them has been raising money for the down ticket races, as they both pledged to do. And as far as people squeeling about her supporting the candidacy of some of those supporting her, thats sort of the point of it all. The whole point is to get Dems elected. Are you new to the party?
Steven.kelly9850
(1 post)No I am not new but the Democratic party is anything but democratic! ! So she is buying votes, it is perfectly okay with the party, the system is designed to stop people like Bernie Sanders, the head of the party said so. They want more people in the party, they even want them at the convention, but they don't want the establishment candidates to have opposition. This is why the Democratic party has gotten by with being Republican lite.
The question is who is in charge of the party, the Democratic voters or the party leaders. So you are right Hillary Clinton is not doing anything wrong, it's just not democratic! !!!
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Super Delegates have never usurped the majority vote. If they try it this time, there will be a Republican in the White House.
urbuddha
(363 posts)It's Bernie or Bust !
corkhead
(6,119 posts)How's Hillary doing in her home state(s). Which state does she count as "home" anyway?
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Zing Zing Zingbah
(6,496 posts)They aren't likely to make endorsements for Democratic candidates.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Zing Zing Zingbah
(6,496 posts)but he probably won't say anything about the dem primaries since he is not actually apart of the party. I wouldn't expect it. He might endorse the dem candidate for president once the selection has been made.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)And it will help him in other rural states.
Laughing Mirror
(4,185 posts)PonyUp
(1,680 posts)Laughing Mirror
(4,185 posts)That's what it says in OP. Do you imagine Clinton greeting that news with glee?
book_worm
(15,951 posts)For instance Arkansas, which you are excited about, the most recent poll has Hillary up by 25. That poll was released yesterday.
LiberalArkie
(15,719 posts)2008 were so pissed that a black man won that they would not vote in the general at all.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)that I think Bernie would have a much better chance in Alaska against ANY Republican than Hillary would. "Democrat" is kind of a dirty word up here, but we don't have much of a problem with socialism. See, e.g., the Alaska Permanent Fund. Also Alaska's current governor is an Independent who handily defeated his Republican incumbent opponent last year, so there's that. My Alaska FB friends overwhelmingly support Bernie.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)Does better education make better voters???
blue neen
(12,322 posts)"no surprise here - people who can think (Vermont) vote Sanders"
"South Carolina - not so much..."
"and - red state - who cares - it does not matter"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1230048
The undertones of what you continue to imply are not flattering.
Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)angrychair
(8,702 posts)Washington state is all Bernie!!!
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/states-donors-hot-for-the-bern/
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)You know, the low-info states where slavery is omitted from the textbooks.
LiberalArkie
(15,719 posts)I really feel this election is about the kids. If they turn out BIG then all bets are off and it is a new game. This is as it should be out is their future that the election is about.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)LiberalArkie
(15,719 posts)this one really depends on them. It will really tell the old farts like me whether just to shut up and accept life as it is or start jumping for joy as what it might become.
merrily
(45,251 posts)This is regional bias. Democrats living in the south shouldn't be facing Trump like smears like "low information" on DU.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The post is uninformed and indeed a broad-brush smear. However it doesn't warrant a hide, imo. Frankly the poster is the "low-info" voter and should simply be ignored.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Please toughen up.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)With all the poverty (thanks to republicans and blue dogs) people don't have access to the information they need. This is the only reason Hillary has a southern 'firewall', and it infuriates me!
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Go Go Bernie!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Thank goodness!
pkdu
(3,977 posts)From the Vermont link....But Clinton leads in 10 of the 12 states that vote on March 1.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)and Sanders looks strong in 8 out of 8 states in the stretch from March 22 to April 9!
pkdu
(3,977 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)pkdu
(3,977 posts)http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/georgia-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/massachusetts-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/tennessee-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/
Nyan
(1,192 posts)and currently "looks strong" in NV, meaning that Hillary has been losing and Bernie has been gaining support.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Other than Alaska (who elected Sarah Palin Governor ) all of those states, and you can throw in New Hampshire too, are no further than 50 miles from Vermont.
I suggest you look at this link to see what the chances are of Sanders winning in all of those other states:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/
PS - the "battleground" states are what they are, we don't add them to the list by the day.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)daily so states that were not competitive a month ago are tossups or "lean Sanders" now, and states that "lean Hillary" now will tip toward "lean Sanders" in the coming months.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Merryland
(1,134 posts)HALLELUJAH!
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)...of voting D in the general.
blackspade
(10,056 posts)lz103
(2 posts)Please site the sources for your data. Links if possible. Thanks.
PoliticalMalcontent
(449 posts)Welcome to DU, lz103.
lz103
(2 posts)iwannaknow
(210 posts)So much for Clinton's electability argument:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
trillion
(1,859 posts)People are finally waking up to Hillary's super pacs are doing it to continue the corporate stronghold on our laws, and no race is better off with her because of it.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)Hillary lost IN in 2008 and 2016 Bernie Sanders will have a strong group of volunteers and staff...
For Democrats there are 92 Delegates (I think winner takes all)
SCantiGOP
(13,871 posts)WOW !!
Lotta WOWs in posts these days.
Lotta bold letters and ALL CAPS too.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Jack Rabbit
(45,984 posts)[center]
[/center]
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)jonestonesusa
(880 posts)she should match Bernie's Vermont support, wouldn't you think?
Or not???
Bohunk68
(1,364 posts)She is not popular with Upstate Dems, either. We hunt to put venison in our freezers. Bernie understands that.
Duval
(4,280 posts)OhZone
(3,212 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Kicked and rec'd
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Joe Chi Minh
(15,229 posts)malfunctioning at all.... Something's badly amiss.
napnap
(1 post)Orsino
(37,428 posts)You're listening.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)I think we'll be seeing more like this as time goes on.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)also point to an excellent trend in Colorado.
lark
(23,105 posts)Wonder how he's doing in the biggies, CA, FL, TX, PA, NY, NJ? I haven't seen any poll results for any of these lately, so truly don't know. I'd expect that he's rising everywhere, but don't have any stats to support this feeling.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)win unless it results in a lopsided delegate allocation.
I suspect that Clinton will do well in ex-Confederate red states and states that share a border with Arkansas. By April 9, Sanders will have erased that early March advantage Clinton will get from the ex-Confederate red states.