More of Nate Silver's Projections

[CajunBlazer]

I looked though the FiveThirtyEight website for predictions on all of the upcoming caucus and primary states and, except for Nevada and South Carolina which I have already posted here, this is what I found (all projections in terms of chances of winning in that state:

Virginia
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/
Clinton: 98% - Sanders: 2%

Oklahoma
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/
Clinton: 81% - Sanders: 19%

Arkansas
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/
Clinton: Greater than 99% - Sanders: Less than 1%

Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Clinton: 95% - Sanders: 5%

Most of the other states pages showed "insufficient polling data"

NOTE: If you have questions about which polls were used for a particular prediction, go to the website using the link provided for that prediction Scroll down and you will see a list of polls. Keep in mind that not all of the polls may have been used. Look in the column titled WEIGHT. Silver weights polls in his calculations (gives more emphasis to some polls than others) based on the past accuracy of the polling organization and the bias of their polls.

For example, for the Virginia prediction, the "Public Policy Polling" poll (weight -1.18) received a lot more weight than the "Christopher Newport University" (wieght - 0.11)and the other polls below them weren't used at all in Silver's prediction calculations - notice that they all have 0.00 for the weight. That is almost certainly that is because the are too old to be valid.

[berniepdx420]

1. What was nates prediction for Iowa ??

[Cali_Democrat]

2. He predicted Hillary would win Iowa

and he was right.

[berniepdx420]

5. Funny...by what % did he predict her to win by ?

[Cali_Democrat]

6. His statistical model doesn't work that way

You really aren't familiar with his work, are you?

His model only predicts the odds that a candidate has to win using inputs such as aggregated polls.

He doesn't predict margin of victory.

[berniepdx420]

12. quite familiar thanks... When one is up by 30+ points and wins dubiously by 0.2 points that sure

isn't momentum.. quite the contrary...

The elephant in the room which you not so artfully dodge is that the same exact thing is happening in Nevada

Which is the reason we are not hearing to much about Nevada (the next one up) and instead all we hear about is SC

[CajunBlazer]

15. I am also familiar with the fact that Bernie lost in the delagate count in both Iowa and NH

In NH it was because of those pesky super delegates. And oh, by the way Hillary will come away with more delegates in Nevada as well. So when is Bernie actually going win a state and beat her in the delegate count? I don't see that happening through March 1st and then maybe in Vermont.

Of course, even Vermont might be in doubt because the Hillary camp is trying pick up all of the super delegates in Vermont where Bernie has been battling with the Democrats for the last 30 years.

The only way to the nomination is to get enough delegates to win - that doesn't seem to be happening for Bernie.

[berniepdx420]

16. 2008 arguments all over again.... snuggle up close to those super delegates.. cause in this

anti-establishment election cycle they won't be worth a thing... I'm sure in your quiet moments, the thought of super delegates stealing an election away from the people choice makes you sick.. And there's a better shot of hillary disclosing her speech transcripts than there is the super delegates going against their state's voters choice.

[CajunBlazer]

17. Let's talk again after March 1st shall we?

We'll know by then if Bernie can do a good Obama impersonation and win the way Barack did or whether that has no chance of happening.

I don't like Bernie chances, so you.

[berniepdx420]

20. The same thing was said in 2008 and funny we never really heard from those folks after

Obama took it... I expect the same from this years crowd...

The Clintons are old news... they helped concentrate the wealth at the top ...time for a change.. feel the bern

[reformist2]

18. You should be embarrassed that the superdelegates make it look like Hillary won NH & Iowa.

[CajunBlazer]

22. I'm not at all - delegates are delegates - Bernie chose to run as a Democrat...

... now he'll play by the Democratic Party rules which have been around since 1972. He previously chose to be an Independent all of his life and complain about both parties. There are consequences associated with life's decisions.

Of course, he could have just as easily chose to run as the Green Party's nominee and then he could have played by their rules, if they have any.

[CajunBlazer]

7. He doen't predict what they will win by - he predicts whether a candidate will win or not.

In Iowa he have Hillary a 67% chance of winning - and he was right

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/


In NH he gave Bernie a 99% chance of winning - and he was right

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

[berniepdx420]

9. Don't you think you are leaving some important parts out of the Iowa story...

[CajunBlazer]

11. No - a win is a win and a loss is a loss - that's all Silvers predicts

But note he have Hillary less chance of winning in Iowa than any of the states in the post. Also note that he have Bernie a 99% chance of winning New Hampshire and he won by a landslide.

[berniepdx420]

14. Keep on believing that is reality... When one is up by 30+points and wins dubiously by 0.2 well..

in politics that isn't a win and surely isn't the most important thing..Momentum

pssst.... same thing is happening in Nevada...

[CajunBlazer]

19. So will Hillary come away with more delegates than Bernie like she did in Iowa

I'm all for that. Sooner or later Bernie has to win a state and actually pick up more delegates than Hillary if he is to have any chance of winning the nomination. Maybe in Vermont - but I hear that the Clinton camp is going after all the super delegates were Bernie has been battling the local Democrats for 30 years.

[berniepdx420]

21. LOL .. you think super delegates won't go with the way their states voted.. you're sadly mistaken..

As a Democrat who I assume lived through the 2000 election debacle... how can you cling to and rejoice about super delegates.. it seems a little desperate.. but whatever gets you through the night... Bernie is for us !!

[CajunBlazer]

24. But wouldn't Bernie have to win a few states to win the committed delegate count?

[berniepdx420]

25. Let's see ... there have been 2 contest.. one of which he won by almost 22 % points... the other

which he trailed by 30+ points he dubiously, at best, lost by...wait for it... 0.2% Oh and Nevada is looking a lot like Iowa....

It's gonna be fun !! Super Delegates will fall inline for whoever wins the popular vote in each state... it would be political suicide if they didn't

[CajunBlazer]

27. Okay, maybe Bernie has a shot in Nevada and certainly in Vermont

Nevada looks like it might be close and Vermont, well if he can't win his home state he's toast.

But 12 states will have their caucuses and primaries between Feb. 27th and March 2nd starting with South Carolina and including Texas and Georgia. That's a ton of delegates at stake. Other than Vermont with its tiny slate of delegates, which contest do you really think Bernie has a chance to win?

[berniepdx420]

31. Alright... we are having a rational conversation... nice... let's see... Bernie will win Vermont

by 60+% that's for sure... S.C., Texas and Georgia look to be Hillary's to lose... She is losing ground in all of those States though.. yes she does hold substantial leads... but I think the trend will be... can she hold on to those leads. If Bernie comes from more that 30 points down and wins NV the polls will start to move even quicker towards Bernie in other states... I don't think hillary will lose SC but if she did..it would be over..

So you may disagree but I count IA as a win for Bernie...
He won NH by 22
If he takes NV...oh boy.. things will get crazy

I think there would be trouble in the streets if Bernie wins the voter delegates but the super delegates give the nomination to Hillary...
imho

[jcgoldie]

33. Thats right there in his model, you can see it on his predictions page...

He picked Hillary to win Iowa by 3.2%... 48.3 - 45.1 ...was correct about the winner off by about 3% on the spread... right now projects Nevada spread to be 52.9 - 45.6... that seems to be based on a lot less evidence than the Iowa numbers.

[FD611V]

3. The Silver Dollar Is Probably Correct

Ol' Nate the Silver Dollar in past political years seems to be right on the "correct" mark when it come to predications.

[Kip Humphrey]

4. I want every Hillarian to believe absolutely in these numbers, to sleep well, and stay supremely

confident. Complacency is a key ingredient to your success so don't forget it!

[CajunBlazer]

8. Nah, the Hillary folks will win only because they work their butts off until the end in each state

But if you are sure that Silver is wrong on any of these states and that Bernie will win, take the next plane to Los Vegas and bet your house on it. You'll get fantastic odds.

And oh, good luck - you are going to need it

[berniepdx420]

10. +420

[CajunBlazer]

13. No one is confident - these predictions may change with the next polls

But right this moment, with those odds and all else being equal, I would rather be a Hillary supporter than a Bernie supporter.

[Beacool]

26. Hillarian?

Aren't you witty.......

[CajunBlazer]

30. Not!

[DesertRat]

23. k&r

[kstewart33]

28. Polling organizations gain credibility by their past predictions.

By that standard, Nate Silver is the best of the best.

But is he always right? Of course not. But he is most of the time.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Virgina - who knows? Too early to call.

But his prediction about South Carolina looks spot on.

Nevada? Nate sees something that the rest of the pollsters don't. I wish I knew what it was.

[CajunBlazer]

29. The primaries for three of the four states - exception Michigan - are set for Mar. 1st

That's close and they will follow a projected big victory in North Carolina only a few days before. Like NC, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Virgina seem set in stone for Hillary.

But based on the polls that I have seen recently for the other Mar. 1st states including the biggest - Texas and Georgia - all but Vermont seem to be going for Hillary by 30% or more. Expect big predictions from Silver when new polls come out for those states as well. Out of 12 states with primaries between Feb 27th and Mar. 2nd,, Bernie may win only his home state.

[kstewart33]

32. CB, I hope you're right but this go-round, nothing would surprise me.

The missing piece in this puzzle is whether or when the mainstream media will begin to take a close look at Bernie, his past relationships with the Socialist party, Marxists, and Manuel Ortega, and his atheism, conscientious objector status, and all the rest.

If/when they do, Bernie is toast. They haven't yet really done so with Trump, but I think that's about to change. If they do, Trump will fade. Bluster and bravado only get you so far.

Hope you keep posting. I like reading your comments.