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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver now has Hillary winning Nevada at a 75% probability.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/
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Nate Silver now has Hillary winning Nevada at a 75% probability. (Original Post)
RBInMaine
Feb 2016
OP
Stallion
(6,476 posts)1. Simply Not Enough to Speculate Much
and I'm for Clinton. Now in South Carolina we have so many quality Polls essentially saying pretty much the same thing
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)2. Keeping my fingers crossed.
NV is tough to call.
Caucus states are unpredictable. Everything depends on attendance.
I am cautiously optimistic, but ....
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)3. She has a ground game in the rural precincts.
That can be where the delegate outcome is determined.
A candidate can get thousands more people to show up for them by having huge numbers in Vegas and Reno, but without a good turnout in the rural precincts they can still lose the delegate count and that's all that matters in a caucus.
Obama learned this about Nevada the hard way in 2008.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)4. steady as